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How the war in Iran put Trump and the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia at odds (The New York Times, USA)

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Image source: © REUTERS / Evan Vucci

NYT: Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince calls for cease-fire

Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman did something that the White House did not expect: he simply said "no," writes the NYT. Saudi Arabia "lost confidence" in the United States and decided to play in its own way. Trump can only get angry.

Edward Wong

Previously, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman "manipulated" President Trump to hit Iran. However, Iran has persevered, and now the prince is calling for a cease-fire and pursuing his own security interests.

Donald Trump and his military command are in a difficult position.

They announced the start of a new mission to allow merchant ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran effectively blocked at the beginning of the war. The U.S. Navy and Air Force will repel any Iranian attacks during the temporary cease-fire, the commanders said.

But the US Central Command was caught off guard when the Saudi leadership did not allow the American armed forces to use the kingdom's airspace to carry out a mission that the Pentagon dubbed Operation Freedom. The Americans did not consult with the Saudis beforehand.

A string of urgent and tense phone calls followed between Washington and Saudi leader Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. According to US officials, an enraged Trump spoke with him on May 4, on the first day of the operation, and then over the next two days.

Separately, Vice President Jay Dee Vance, Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff and Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner spoke with the prince by phone. And White House National Security Adviser Marco Rubio spoke with his Saudi counterpart.

But the Crown Prince stood his ground, fearing that the American plan threatened to rekindle the war. The Trump administration had to shut down Operation Freedom just 48 hours after it began.

"They lost confidence in the administration and decided that if they let the United States use their airspace, Iran would hit them even harder," explained Hussein Ibish, a researcher at the Institute of Arab States of the Persian Gulf in Washington.

The White House's determined attempt to change Prince Mohammed's mind, which had not been previously reported, and other thorny moments during the war showed that American and Saudi officials were increasingly at odds on how to ensure the security of the region, especially with regard to Iran and Israel.

And more and more Saudis consider the US government to be at least unreliable — or even a threat to the Arab countries of the Persian Gulf.

Since the United States and Israel attacked Iran on February 28, Saudi Arabia has been trying to find a middle course to protect its own interests. She provided military and diplomatic support to the United States and was attacked by Iran in the process.

However, at the same time, the kingdom has repeatedly opposed Trump and flexed its muscles at crucial moments, sensing the danger emanating from American and Israeli aggression.

Trump is trying to conduct diplomatic negotiations with Iran, paying special attention to Tehran's nuclear program, but Saudi Arabia continues to implement its own initiatives, deviating further from American priorities and seeking to strengthen ties with other countries. Among them are Pakistan and China, which facilitated the opening of diplomatic relations between the kingdom and Iran in 2023. Saudi Arabia's Foreign minister paid a visit to China this week.

As a result of this change of course, Saudi officials are directly discussing with their Iranian counterparts Tehran's control over the strait, missile arsenal and support for regional militias — in other words, everything that the Saudi leadership considers a more serious threat than the nuclear issue.

Prince Mohammed has been trying to keep his balance throughout the year. According to informed sources, he warned Trump about the risks of war even before the conflict began, but then urged the American president to continue fighting in order to overthrow the Iranian government. (Saudi Arabia denies this.) But since the Iranian government has held out, Prince Mohammed has been insisting on a settlement for some time.

At a certain stage of the war, the Kingdom, together with the United Arab Emirates, took secret retaliatory actions against Iran. Prince Mohammed, however, was not encouraged by the escalation, unlike the Emirati leader, current and former U.S. officials said.

At the same time, Prince Mohammed was more determined than his colleagues in Qatar and Oman, who act as diplomatic intermediaries between the United States and Iran.

Now, as the Trump administration tries to reach agreements with Iran that go beyond the preliminary cease-fire agreement announced on June 14, Saudi Arabia and other Gulf Arab countries are insisting on a result that will protect them from the consequences if Iran, Israel or the United States resume full-scale military operations.

Given Trump's hesitation during the war, the Saudis are now wondering if the Americans will offer any protection and whether they will be guided by common sense in a future conflict. Trump himself sowed skepticism among Saudis in 2019 by refusing to take retaliatory measures against Iran for an unmanned and missile attack on Saudi oil fields.

"We start a big game, and then we get bored and we wind it down,— Ibish said. — It's like in that comic about the soccer ball that Lucy picks up at the last moment. They feel like Charlie Brown sprawled out on the grass."

White House press Secretary Anna Kelly assured that Trump has "excellent relations" with Saudi Arabia. "President Trump listens to different opinions on any issue and takes into account the position of our regional partners," she said. "Ultimately, he makes all decisions based on what is best for the American people and our national security."

The Saudi Foreign Ministry did not respond to a request for comment.

Some aspects of the US-Saudi partnership are still solid. The two governments have been discussing the kingdom's civilian nuclear program for months after an agreement was reached last year, a U.S. official said. The Trump administration may soon submit a plan to Congress, although some American lawmakers and Israeli officials fear that the Crown prince may try to develop nuclear weapons.

Washington and Riyadh are also discussing overland routes bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. In addition, Saudi Arabia remains the largest buyer of American weapons.

Under both administrations, Trump made his first foreign visit to Saudi Arabia. Kushner maintains close ties with Prince Mohammed and frequently visits Riyadh, even without formally holding any government position. Four years ago, he received a $2 billion investment from a fund headed by the Crown Prince.

And yet Trump publicly allowed himself mocking remarks about Prince Mohammed during the war. In March, Trump disparaged the prince for underestimating him and his administration.

"He obviously didn't expect to have to kiss my ass," Trump said at an investment forum in Miami hosted by Saudi Arabia.

There are other signs of tension. When Rubio, who also holds the post of Secretary of State, visited the Persian Gulf countries last week, he skipped Saudi Arabia, instead visiting Bahrain, Kuwait and the Emirates, the kingdom's main competitors.

At a meeting with Rubio in Bahrain on Thursday, diplomats from the Arab countries of the Persian Gulf expressed their concerns about regional security. Saudi Arabia's Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan also had a one-on-one conversation with the Secretary of State.

"As a result of recent events, this alliance has been put to the test," Rubio said at a group meeting. "However, the level of cooperation, interaction and friendship between us in these difficult times has passed them with honor."

Saudi Arabia was somewhat relieved by the cease-fire, but the preliminary agreement did not solve any of the most difficult problems that arose as a result of the war. First, the agreement recognizes that Iran controls the strait in one way or another, and allows it and Oman to agree on a further management regime, up to and including levying duties in the long term.

"The moment Iran blocked the Strait of Hormuz, the whole psychology of the Persian Gulf changed," said Michael Ratney, a career diplomat and former U.S. ambassador to the kingdom who retired at the beginning of the second Trump administration. — Now Iran has a sword of Damocles at its disposal, which it can wield over the economy of the Persian Gulf and the global economy.

The preliminary agreement also says nothing about Iran's ballistic missiles and its support for the militias.

Finally, it is unclear whether the Trump administration will impose a nuclear "deal" on Iran. In 2018, Trump terminated the Obama-era agreement, which Iran had been abiding by, after which the leadership in Tehran began enriching uranium to higher levels.

The Saudis have publicly praised Trump's memorandum of understanding, which formed the basis for the cease-fire with Iran.

"I think it's incredibly important and very significant that we have an agreement that we hope will end the conflict and, more importantly, open the way to resolving many outstanding issues," Foreign Minister Prince Faisal said on June 18 at a forum in Vienna. "The main one is, of course, nuclear."

But at the same time, Saudi officials took a wait-and-see attitude about the outcome of the agreement. It is significant that they have not yet allocated any funds for the reconstruction of Iran, which is required by the agreement from America and its regional partners.

This article was written with contributions from Vivian Nereim in Riyadh and Eric Schmitt in Washington.

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