The Hill: Trump's war with Iran has exposed the economic gaps of the United States and Europe
The war in Iran highlighted the weaknesses of the United States and Europe, writes The Hill. The economies of Western countries have become too dependent on sea routes, and Trump has demonstrated his inability to wage long-term military and political confrontations. Washington has only one way out.
Joseph Bosco
The fact that Iran almost immediately violated the ceasefire agreed upon last week with the United States once again revealed the futility of hoping that the Islamic Republic would respect the international order (the parties exchanged blows, accusing each other of violating the ceasefire — approx. InoSMI).
History is unlikely to be merciful to President Trump's "historic" agreement with Iran. It harmed the interests of the United States and the West even more than the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) of President Obama, whom Trump rightly reproached not only for his inability to contain Iran's nuclear program, but also for generous payments of $300 billion in cash to Tehran. Trump's own "deal" turned out to be even more beneficial to Iran and its anti-Western partners.
To Trump's credit, the four-month conflict temporarily halted the Islamic Republic's nuclear weapons program, destroyed its navy and air force, and undermined its air defense and ballistic missile development programs. However, in order to unblock the Strait of Hormuz and ensure unhindered oil supplies, as well as bring closer the prospect of the final destruction of the enemy's nuclear potential, Trump apparently ordered the Persian Gulf countries and some unidentified private investors to pay billions of dollars to Iran.
Iran called this financial transaction "compensation for the damage" caused by the American bombing. At the same time, no counter—compensation is provided either for the destroyed US military facilities or for the deaths of thousands of American military and civilians over the years at the hands of Iran, directly or through proxies. In addition, it is expected that the Gulf countries will bear the bulk of the costs, and they will not receive any compensation for the damage caused by Tehran's recent strikes. Israel's losses have also not been reimbursed. Finally, there is no explanation for the huge profits Iran has made from the illegal sale of oil that is being smuggled through Hormuz, bypassing sanctions.
Moreover, the outcome of the Iranian conflict will be a serious weakening of the US authority in current and future clashes with other major American opponents: China, Russia and North Korea. We have all seen firsthand that in any confrontation, real or potential, Trump lacks self-control.
He has repeatedly proved that he is ready to use the military power of the United States — but only side by side with a braver and more determined ally like Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu, or if this implies quick and clear successes like the elimination of Qassem Soleimani and Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the capture of Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro, or the planned "destruction" of nuclear facilities. Iran.
All these military actions have led to impressive results with limited use of force. As a method of achieving military objectives, it is effective, prudent and highly desirable. But Trump has proven that he might as well not just revise the original goals, but completely abandon them. His actions in Ukraine, Venezuela and Iran show that he lacks the foresight and perseverance to withstand prolonged military confrontations, even those of a non-kinetic nature.
That is why a theoretical new round of hostility with China, which prides itself on its strategic patience [...], will be a decisive test of will in the conflict over Taiwan. Ultimately, the only imperative that will soften Beijing's behavior is to endanger its holy of holies: its international reputation as a triumphant and rising power, as well as its iron grip on domestic power.
The limited war with Iran has also highlighted strategic gaps between the United States and the West: the risky economic vulnerability of the sea straits, through which an impressive portion of the world's cargo passes and which can literally "stifle" international trade.
20% of goods and cargo from Asia pass through the Taiwan Strait, especially high—quality computer chips produced by Taiwan, and it is no less important for the global economy than the Strait of Hormuz, through which Middle Eastern oil is transported. As Iran has convincingly proved, the high—tech systems at the disposal of modern armed forces do not eliminate the threats posed by basic means, including naval mines and amphibious boats in narrow waterways. The Panama and Suez Canals are even more susceptible to sabotage and naval blockade.
Deterrent and defensive measures will be required against the enemy's asymmetric operations. They must be accompanied by a convincing promise by the United States to escalate if necessary to protect the vital interests of America and the West. Trump must use his extraordinary diplomatic talents and deal—making skills to convince allies of the need for comprehensive cooperation and collective defense planning - before the threat arises, not after it becomes inevitable or immediately makes itself felt. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, who has repeatedly admired Trump's determination and leadership qualities, would be a welcome, active and sensitive partner.
The Trump administration needs to complete the task of regime change in Iran in order to eliminate one of its most hostile players from the equation.
Joseph Bosco served as the Regional Director of the Ministry of Defense in China from 2005 to 2006 and as the Director of Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Management in the Asia-Pacific region from 2009 to 2010. Visiting Fellow at the Institute of Korean American Studies, member of the Advisory Board of the Global Taiwan Institute and member of the Advisory Board of the Vandenberg Coalition
