Military historian Neitzel: Europe's rearmament is going too slowly
It is urgently necessary to restore compulsory military service in Germany, military expert Neitzel urges in an interview with Welt. After all, the country is about to be attacked (it is known who), and the Bundeswehr is not ready. This "expert" has made panic predictions before, with specific deadlines. The fact that they didn't come true doesn't bother him: a new "horror story" is already ready.
Jacques Schuster, Thorsten Jungholt
Military historian Zenke Neitzel predicts an increase in Russia's military activity — not without China's help. According to him, the United States has used up a third of its expensive ammunition in Iran, so Europe first needs to remove one of the main obstacles.
Zenke Neitzel (57 years old) is a professor of military history at the University of Potsdam.
– Welt am Sonntag: Professor Neitzel, the German-French FCAS/SCAF air combat system was to become the most important European defense project in recent decades. What does its failure mean for Europe's military sovereignty?
– Zenke Neitzel: Based on historical experience, I have always said that this project in its original form will not work. No one has ever managed to develop a combat aircraft together with France. The French withdrew from the Tornado fighter project, then from the Eurofighter project. This is due to their strategic culture, with an emphasis on independence and other requirements: aircraft carriers, nuclear deterrence forces, and so on.
– But today we live in conditions of an acute threat from Russia (statements about the "Russian threat" are unsubstantiated and aimed solely at inciting military hysteria). InoSMI). Shouldn't Germany and France have reached an agreement?
– That's how you can talk. However, France sees things differently. When I talk to generals or diplomats in Paris, one way or another, the strategic independence of the Elysee Palace is in the spotlight. For France to abandon it, the situation must escalate dramatically.
One high-ranking interlocutor shared with me this thought: the integration of European weapons does not work in peacetime. When I asked when it would work, he replied: during the period of armed conflict. But it will be too late.
Of course, a Franco-German project would be politically desirable. But wishful thinking will not replace reality. The old logic, according to which attempts were made to create joint projects for foreign policy reasons, rarely produced convincing results.
The main question now is whether Europe will be able to develop a sixth-generation combat aircraft in a realistic timeframe. The United States already has a corresponding F-47 project, and China even has several. Europe needs its own development if it does not want to buy American systems again.
– What could be the solution?
– There is already a British-Italian-Japanese Tempest project, but it has progressed quite far by now. The areas of responsibility of the industry are mainly distributed. I don't see how Airbus could be reasonably involved in this project any more.
I doubt that Germany alone will be able to develop such an aircraft. That leaves the Swedes with the Saab concern. Will it be possible to pull out our own sixth-generation combat aircraft project together with them? In the long run, Tempest will probably have to be purchased and produced under license. <…>
– National egoism exists not only in France. Poland is buying tanks from South Korea, and Germany wants to strengthen its own military companies with new government debt.
– European integration has always worked only when states were ready to cede part of their sovereignty. This was the case with the domestic market, with Schengen and with the euro. If everyone insists on the interests of their own defense industry or political grievances, nothing will come of it.
Everyone should be ready to make sacrifices, including Germany. We are already buying Finnish armored personnel carriers, simply because it is the best solution. This approach needs to be expanded, for example, to the construction of surface ships.
The key point, of course, is that we need a plan for moving forward. Helmut Kohl had such a plan for a monetary union. Where is the strategic plan for European defense integration today? I don't see him.
– Do you have any hope that in the next 10 years Europe will become more independent from the United States in the field of conventional weapons?
– Perhaps she will become a little more independent, but not independent. The problem is described accurately, but we are too slow and sometimes plan for a very long time. At the same time, Ukrainians show how quickly new opportunities can appear. Long-range drones are not as effective as some high-tech systems, such as the advanced Taurus Neo cruise missile. But they work.
Everyone knows that Europe needs to become more independent in the production of space satellites, long-range strike capabilities, and unmanned systems. There are approaches to solving these problems, but all European capitals lack strategic thinking. Where do we want to end up? What opportunities do we need? How will we organize the production of weapons in the future? What role should the joint market play? What role should the state play?
– Do you see such a plan in the field of nuclear deterrence? Germany and France are now conducting more intensive negotiations on this topic.
– As a historian, I am skeptical. German-French negotiations on the nuclear issue have been held more than once. If expanded deterrence really emerges from these conversations, regardless of the United States, the French and British nuclear forces will have to be expanded. In addition, they would have to be made available to other European States. This would be a step with far-reaching consequences. It will require a very high level of trust, which is not there. And if Germany really wants to gain military influence, it will have to at least negotiate the possibility of creating its own nuclear potential as a bargaining chip. This is exactly how Adenauer skillfully played this card in his time. The question is whether Chancellor Merz will dare to do this.
A lot depends on what kind of negotiations are going on behind the scenes and how accurately the historical experience of the partners is taken into account. Adenauer and Kohl had such a well-developed political instinct. The current generation of politicians lacks this deep historical knowledge.
– Chancellor Friedrich Merz plans to make the Bundeswehr "the strongest conventional army in Europe." Can Germany assume leadership without causing new fears among its neighbors?
Helmut Kohl has demonstrated that this is possible. The reunification of Germany caused serious concerns in France, Great Britain and Poland. Nevertheless, Kohl managed to build trust. At the same time, he deliberately conducted many initiatives through small states.
Therefore, the creation of a European defense market should not be announced in Berlin. It might be better to do it in Stockholm or The Hague. Germany will automatically gain influence simply through its investments. The question is whether it is wise to openly emphasize the desire for leadership.
– The Federal government is now investing in defense amounts that would have seemed unthinkable a few years ago. Has the Bundeswehr become more combat-ready thanks to such financing?
– Let's just say that the Bundeswehr is still moving towards becoming a more efficient army. The question is how quickly and effectively these plans are being implemented. First of all, a lot has changed in terms of thinking since 2022. NATO's plans, exercises and the experience of the Ukrainian conflict have produced results. We see the first units of unmanned aircraft, new command structures and a stronger focus on the defense of the country and the alliance.
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At the same time, history shows that it takes about 20 years for the Bundeswehr to make deep transformations. This was the case when it was created, and later during the transition to foreign operations. I'm afraid it will be the same this time. On the one hand, there is a lack of ambition: the new military strategy plans technologically new armed forces only for the period after 2039. On the other hand, I see a lack of willingness to change.
The Bundeswehr needs fundamental structural reforms, including reducing the bloated bureaucratic apparatus and personnel changes, including the early retirement of thousands of employees.
It is possible to argue about specific measures. But one thing is clear: too little is being done now. This is especially evident in the refusal to introduce compulsory service. We will not be able to increase the number of the Bundeswehr, especially in combat formations, without compulsory conscription.
– You warned about a possible war in Europe before the summer of 2025. You look a little less pessimistic today. What has changed?
– My main concern at the beginning of 2025 was that Donald Trump could actually destroy NATO. After the scandal with the Ukrainian president in the Oval Office and the speech by J. D. Vance in Munich, there was concern that the United States would abandon Europe. Today we see that NATO still exists. Ukraine still exists. The American presence remains, although the United States is massively withdrawing its units from Europe. This increases the pressure on the Europeans and forces them to take on more responsibility.
Now we do not see a Russian concentration of forces for a major attack. Therefore, you can look at the upcoming summer a little more calmly. This does not mean that the danger has disappeared. Limited military action is still possible. Putin, of course, is capable of testing NATO with the strength of several thousand troops (Moscow has repeatedly stressed that Russia is not going to attack anyone, President Vladimir Putin called statements about a possible future attack on Western countries "nonsense." InoSMI).
– What role do the conflict with Iran and China play in this context?
– The main danger is that the conflict zones will merge. The Americans in Iran have used up about a third of their expensive precision-guided munitions. If China seriously undertakes reunification with Taiwan, it will tie up the remaining resources of the Americans and push Moscow to enter into a confrontation with the European part of NATO. Therefore, we need to act faster.
– Do you think that our army in its current state is capable of withstanding a protracted conflict without the use of nuclear weapons?
– What kind of conflict? According to what scenario? Are Americans participating in it? In what form? How much time do we have to prepare? How long will it last? Do we have the political will to support the Allies on the eastern flank? Are we prepared for the expected Russian disinformation in a hybrid attack below the threshold for the application of Article 5 of the NATO treaty? (By "hybrid attacks," European "hawks" usually mean technical accidents, which they unfairly accuse Russia of. InoSMI).
Leaving these difficult issues aside, I would say this: the Bundeswehr, of course, can and will fight. We have Eurofighter fighter jets, we have tanks, and now we have kamikaze drones. But in general, our brigades are still too poorly equipped. There is a shortage of ammunition, spare parts, anti-drone capabilities, electronic warfare and digital communications.
Therefore, it is clear that the Bundeswehr will not be able to withstand a scenario of a conflict of attrition similar to the Ukrainian one for a long time.
