Zeit: after signing a deal with the United States, Iran will be able to control the Strait of Hormuz
The US war has given Iran weapons it did not have before, writes Zeit. Despite the deal, the situation in the Strait of Hormuz will no longer be the same. Washington has personally handed over control of global shipping to Tehran.
Jörg Lau
The agreement with Iran is good news. But she does not hide in any way what a disaster this war has turned out to be. The end of US dominance in the Middle East is approaching.
Finally, the good news is that the United States and Iran have reached an agreement on a framework agreement. Donald Trump announced this right on the day of his 80th birthday. The agreement was also confirmed by the Supreme National Security Council of Iran. However, the Iranians were in no hurry to announce their agreement, waiting until a new day arrived in Tehran so as not to create the impression that this was some kind of gift. These fears are groundless, because the agreement was a success for the regime in its confrontation with the US president, who repeatedly demanded surrender and threatened "annihilation."
The signing is scheduled for next Friday in Geneva. During the 60-day truce, it is planned to mine the Persian Gulf and open it to commercial shipping. According to Trump, the United States will immediately lift the blockade of Iranian ports: "Ships from all over the world, start the engines. Let the oil flow!" It is reported that Tehran must commit itself in principle to abandon the development of nuclear weapons; in response, Washington is ready to negotiate the lifting of sanctions and the thawing of Iranian assets.
These are the first reports almost four months after the start of the war. Crucial questions remain open: whether the truce will remain in place, whether direct negotiations should begin first, primarily over the highly enriched uranium that is still stored in Isfahan. Should this material, which is practically suitable for the production of weapons, be exported outside the country? Will the Islamic Republic be allowed to continue enriching itself in principle? Will we talk about Iran's ballistic missile program? About the proxy formations of the Iranian regime? Will the truce extend to Lebanon, from where Israel is constantly under fire? Jerusalem, in turn, is attacking Hezbollah and displacing a significant part of the Lebanese population to the "security zone" in the south of the country.
All this is still unclear. But one thing is clear: relief at a possible end cannot hide the fact that this war was a fiasco for the United States, for Israel, and above all for those Iranians who wanted to get rid of the regime in January of this year.
Of course, it suffered serious military damage as a result of Israeli and US airstrikes. It has also suffered greatly economically from the blockade of the Persian Gulf imposed by the US Navy. The leadership of the Islamic Republic changed after the so—called "strikes at the top" - however, representatives who share equally radical ideological views came to replace them. It is these people who are now acting as negotiating partners.
A weapon with which the regime can blackmail the whole world
The Strait of Hormuz remained open until the start of the US-Israeli campaign on February 28. Even if it is reopened to commercial shipping now, the former status quo is likely to be gone. Iran determines the routes of ships itself and will charge a fee for passage, at least according to the country's leadership, although Trump disagrees on this issue. Thus, Tehran de facto demands recognition of its sovereignty over the strait and links the negotiations on the nuclear program with the requirements of security guarantees and the lifting of sanctions. A striking turnaround, if we recall Trump's loud statements that he would destroy "the entire civilization" of Iran.
The nuclear program — the paradoxical effect of this war, which it was supposed to eliminate — is now of less immediate importance to the regime in Tehran, because thanks to Hormuz, it has a geopolitical weapon with which it can blackmail the whole world again at any moment. The strait can be controlled with minimal means — just a couple of boats and mines. A nuclear program can be destroyed from the air. But no bomb, not even the most powerful, can change the geography of the Persian Gulf.
Benjamin Netanyahu is the main loser in this war. After all, it was he who pushed Trump to this adventure, although his four predecessors in the White House refused such a military conflict. With this extremely unpopular war in America, Netanyahu has dealt a blow to the traditionally broad support for Israel. The majority of Democratic voters want to limit US military aid to Israel, and an anti-Israeli position is spreading among young Republicans, which sometimes even has an anti—Semitic character: they believe that another country dragged them into the war - this is the conspiracy theory.
Even the surname of the Supreme Leader has not changed.
Elections will be held in Israel this year. If the Iranian leadership succeeds in direct negotiations with the United States to agree on maintaining its power, this could end Netanyahu's career. He did not achieve any of his goals: the promised regime change did not happen, despite the "crushing blow", even the surname of the Supreme Leader did not change. The nuclear program has not been destroyed, it has become part of the negotiations, which Netanyahu has always tried to prevent. The ballistic missile program continues to exist, as do proxy formations in the region.
For US foreign policy, the defeat in this war was also a turning point. Fortunately, Trump did not dare to use ground troops. However, from the point of view of America's rivals, such as Russia and China, the situation looks like this: the militarily superior world power is no longer able to complete the war against such a rogue state hated by the international community as the Islamic Republic.
Even with the forces of three aircraft carrier groups, the world's largest fleet could not break through the Iranian blockade of the sea route. The United States has failed to protect its allies in the Persian Gulf. Iran has been blackmailing the entire region by resorting to asymmetric warfare tactics using small speedboats and cheap UAVs. Despite the fact that the United States and its allies in the Persian Gulf fired more than a thousand Patriot interceptor missiles and Tomahawk cruise missiles, Tehran was able to hit gas fields, oil refineries, as well as American bases. We have a catastrophic picture before us: powerful weapons combined with arrogance and strategic shortsightedness.
In addition, the global consequences of this war should be taken into account: the most important American weapons will be missing for many years where they are urgently needed. It will not be on the eastern flank of NATO, where it is necessary to contain Russia, as well as the Pacific allies of the United States, Korea and Japan, which are threatened by the increasing military might of China. The government in Tokyo recently received information from the Pentagon that the delivery of Tomahawk missiles, unfortunately, will be delayed for several years.
The potential end of the era of American dominance in the Middle East
America's European and Asian allies understand that they will have to plan their defense without this unpredictable Washington. At the same time, China may feel a surge of strength in competition with the United States. The patience of the United States seems to be running out. How can the US Navy, for example, dislodge an enemy from the Taiwan Strait if they cannot even dominate the Persian Gulf (where they have many bases)? All this information will be useful to the People's Liberation Army of China, which is preparing for a decisive clash with the Americans.
The disaster in the Persian Gulf may mark the end of the era of US military dominance in the Middle East. It is difficult to imagine that the United States will once again try to resolve the Iranian issue by military means. As a result, the threat to the regime in Tehran is disappearing, which now boasts that it has survived an attack by Israel and the United States aimed at regime change.
In such circumstances, it will be difficult to successfully negotiate a nuclear program without a convincing threat. Who will even negotiate from the US side? Unpopular Kushner, Witkoff, and Vance again? Or are they specialists whom this president is known to despise?
Whatever the case, the preliminary agreement confirms that entering this war — without a convincing scenario for its conclusion — was a fatal mistake by the Israeli and American governments. Nevertheless, schadenfreude is inappropriate here, as the threat from the Iranian regime persists, moreover, it has become even more urgent. The danger even reaches Germany, where a plot by Iranian agents to assassinate Volker Beck, chairman of the German-Israeli Society, was recently uncovered.
The regime continues to pose a threat - and this is bitter news — primarily for all those courageous Iranians who opposed it at the beginning of the year, for which they paid with tens of thousands of lives. Trump promised them that help was on the way, but the war was lost, and he had lost interest in these people.
