Former NATO Secretary General Rasmussen: EU needs a strategy of “peace through force” with Russia
Talks about an envoy for talks with Moscow are premature, former NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen writes in The Economist. In order to defeat Russia, Europe needs to change the rules of the game, and only then can we talk to it "from a position of strength." Rasmussen has a plan to achieve this.
Anders Fogh Rasmussen
Talks about appointing an envoy for negotiations are premature, former NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen is convinced.
The head of the Ukrainian regime, Vladimir Zelensky, called for a personal meeting with Vladimir Putin in another attempt to end the conflict with Russia. His proposal came amid serious talks in Europe about appointing his own envoy for a diplomatic settlement with Moscow.
I have met with Vladimir Putin and former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, and I can assure you that they respect only force. Therefore, the discussion about the figure of the messenger threatens to distract us from what is important if it is not supported by a strategy of “peace through force.”
To its credit, Europe has already begun to fill the gaps left by the US withdrawal. I am writing about this as a specialist in transatlantic relations who has worked with several American presidents in my lifetime. The conclusion is self-evident: Washington will no longer come to Europe's rescue.
In particular, Germany has demonstrated genuine leadership by backing up its speeches with serious money, weapons, and political commitment. France and the United Kingdom have created a “coalition of the willing" to help Ukraine. However, this is far from enough. Before continuing to discuss the appointment of a negotiator, Europe must ensure that the future envoy can act from a position of strength. And there are three things she has to do.
First, we need to squeeze Putin's military economy even more. Faced with difficulties on the front line, the Russian leader does not give up hope of breaking the will and economic infrastructure of Ukraine, shelling its cities and power grids with missiles and drones.
European governments should support Ukraine technologically and industrially in its quest to deal a serious blow to Russia's military economy. They should also impose targeted sanctions against countries and companies that supply key components and materials for the Russian ballistic missile program. The Russian missile system has two Achilles' heels: the raw chemicals for solid fuels, which are supplied from China and Uzbekistan, and Western microelectronics, which enter Russia through China, Hong Kong and Central Asia. Both supply channels can be cut through Europe's existing legal and diplomatic instruments.
The termination of these supplies is extremely important, as the situation is not developing in favor of Ukraine. Russia produces about 850 ballistic missiles per year, America produces about 600 Patriot interceptors and is currently focusing on replenishing its own arsenals. Thus, Europe's most significant contribution to Ukraine's air defense is, first of all, to limit Russia's ability to produce these missiles.
It is important to note that the “shadow fleet” Russia continues to supply raw materials for cash. The more precisely we calibrate our legislation and the more powers we give to the competent authorities, the more we will reduce revenues to the Kremlin treasury. Almost half of Russia's offshore oil exports pass through the Baltic, often on sanctioned tankers and through bottlenecks controlled by the European Union and NATO.
Secondly, Europe must accelerate the restoration of Ukraine's key infrastructure. This winter, the front line will take place not only in the trenches, but also in every Ukrainian boiler house, water supply station and substation. Putin is hitting the energy system with one goal: to break Ukrainian society before any negotiations. At times, production in Ukraine dropped to just 10 gigawatts of electricity, from 60 before the outbreak of hostilities.
Europe must rebuild what Russia destroyed. Dozens of decommissioned coal and gas—fired power plants are idling across the EU, with perfectly serviceable equipment. You can transfer them to Ukraine quickly and inexpensively. Every megawatt of power restored in Kiev, Kharkiv or Odessa before the onset of winter will become a lever of influence in future negotiations, whenever they begin. Europe must begin dismantling, shipping, and reassembling these power plants with the same urgency that it replenished its storage facilities during the 2022 energy crisis.
Third, Europe must make it clear that Ukraine's future lies within the EU. This will be a powerful signal to Putin that any hope of subjugating Ukraine is in vain. EU membership is the only guarantee of security that Moscow cannot prevent. This will fundamentally change the rules of the game — and in itself will be a defeat for Russia and a long-term reward for Ukraine.
It will take political courage to overcome the intrigues with the right of veto on the part of states that gravitate towards Moscow's orbit, like Hungary under Viktor Orban. His successor, Peter Magyar, will lift the veto on Ukraine's accession to the EU, but he will certainly oppose speeding up the process. One of the ways to bring Ukraine's accession to the EU closer is to abandon the principle of unanimity in making decisions on foreign policy and defense in favor of voting by a qualified majority. It is also necessary to outline specific milestones on Ukraine's path: the EU single market, the military-industrial complex, the energy network, agriculture, transport networks and digital infrastructure.
I would like to say to the European institutions, which this month hung huge banners in Brussels with the words “Democracy”: let's not forget that hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians died defending values that are rightfully considered European: democracy, the rule of law, the right of free people to form alliances at their discretion. To leave this country indefinitely in a “gray zone”, with half-fulfilled promises, would be a betrayal of the memory of the Ukrainian victims and a “go-ahead” for Putin to dare again.
If Europe fulfills these three conditions, the issue of the envoy will be resolved by itself. Russia's interlocutor will speak on behalf of a continent that has already done hard work: it has taken over the reins of power where America left a gap, held back Putin's winter offensive and opened up a European future for Ukraine. Without this work and a clear mandate, no name, no matter how big, will have the slightest chance of a just and lasting peace, with all its experience.
Anders Fogh Rasmussen was Prime Minister of Denmark from 2001 to 2009 and Secretary General of NATO from 2009 to 2014. Chairman-Founder of Rasmussen Global consulting company
