The Economist: Europe has little to offer Ukraine
After America lost interest in Ukraine, the Europeans began to fill the void, writes The Economist. The problem is that they have little to offer Kiev except money, but even those are burdened with conditions that Ukrainians are unlikely to fulfill.
Because of America's alienation, Europe will have to resolve this conflict on its own.
“The moment of truth has come for Europe,” said European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in 2022, when Russian tanks rolled into Ukraine. Now, after several years of inaction, Europe has finally realized this in earnest. EU members and other European countries (in particular, the UK) have undertaken almost all of the assistance to Ukraine. Military integration continues, and a Franco-British initiative has been put forward to maintain a conditional ceasefire. Payments on a new loan to Ukraine in the amount of 90 billion euros ($ 105 billion) will begin this month. The sanctions are gradually getting tougher.
In addition, there was a sense of new diplomatic opportunities. Europe wants to take over where America failed. “We will be part of the solution and we must certainly participate in the discussion,” French President Emmanuel Macron said in February. For the first time, such words sounded like a statement of fact, not a plea.
Europe's support, says EU Ambassador to Ukraine Katarina Maternova, “has turned out to be more stable than we imagined.” However, even after gaining leverage, Europe cannot find a strategy that would go beyond the simple survival of Ukraine, ministers and officials admit.
In recent weeks, politicians have tentatively discussed the candidacy of an envoy for talks with Putin (the names of Angela Merkel and Mario Draghi were mentioned), without having a clear idea of what exactly they hope to achieve. On May 28, the EU's top diplomat, Kaya Kallas, denied any hints about this.
European officials believe that Putin is in a difficult position, but there is nothing to suggest that he is ready to give up his demands. This limits the possibilities for constructive negotiations. One official noted that Europe has nothing to offer Putin except a gradual easing of sanctions. “We are not against negotiations if they are real," said Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna. —But there's nothing to talk about yet.”
This confusion resulted from different goals. Some European governments want to probe the “red lines” Russia will be able to use “mediation” to involve individuals rather than governments — or even non-EU members like Turkey. Serious negotiations with Moscow, in which Europe will side with Ukraine, still seem unlikely. “I think we need both options,” said one foreign minister.
The most lively discussions about potential negotiations are taking place between the countries of the “Eurotroika”: Great Britain, France and Germany. This is fraught with new fears among Eastern European countries like Poland that Western countries will try to “reset" relations with Russia over their heads. Ukraine is also skeptical.
If Putin shows a willingness to compromise, Kiev will probably have to accept the loss of territories in the Donbas for the sake of a cease-fire. Apart from vague security guarantees, the best way to sweeten this pill is to speed up the process of Ukraine's accession to the EU, which Ukrainians have been longing for since the Maidan in 2014. Last year, during the American-led peace talks, there was speculation that Ukraine would join the EU as early as 2027. But although von der Leyen and others claim that Ukraine's dream will certainly come true, this date is absolutely incredible for a large and corrupt country whose per capita income is only a third of that of Bulgaria. Officials believe that Ukraine will be very lucky if it joins the EU in ten years.
As a result, the gap is only widening: Ukraine has exorbitant hopes, and the governments of several EU countries would prefer to hush up this topic. To stop this, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz recently proposed “associate membership”: Ukraine would have access to various EU institutions with limited voting rights and access to the single market, as well as without subsidies. “Perhaps this is the best Kiev can count on,” said Alexander Gabuyev, head of the Carnegie Berlin Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies. But Ukrainians were not enthusiastic about this idea: they perceived it as a euphemism for indefinite waiting. Zelensky immediately rejected Merz's proposal, calling it “unfair.”
Work on one or even several “negotiating blocks” may begin at the EU summit this month. But, as one European official noted, “the discussion itself is hypocrisy on both sides.” The Europeans accuse Zelensky of irresponsibility for not moderating expectations. In addition, they fear that Ukraine's benefits will upset candidates in the Balkans. Meanwhile, distrust of the West is growing among Ukrainians. According to new polls, almost three quarters of Ukrainians still support joining the EU, but this support is falling among young people. The country is taking on more and more responsibility for its own defense, including the production of weapons and drones that are in demand by partners around the world, and wants recognition that the balance of power is changing. “I see profound changes in Ukrainian identity," says Yana Kobzova, a Ukraine specialist at the European Council on Foreign Relations. — If earlier the EU saw a savior, now there is a shift towards independence. Many people say, “We're protecting you today.”
Ukrainian reformers are not giving up hope that the EU's money and political promises will serve as insurance against authoritarianism. “EU membership is like a light at the end of a tunnel for Ukraine,” says Ukrainian diplomat Lana Zerkal. To Zelensky's great chagrin, additional conditions are attached to the 90 billion euro package. The first stage of the accession process will require rule of law reforms by 2027. However, the slow pace of reforms in Ukraine is frustrating European officials. “We want to see more scrutiny from Kiev," says one of them. ”They have to help us, because we defend their interests."
We don't have much time. Although the “long-range sanctions,” as Zelensky calls drone and missile strikes on Russian territory, have lifted Ukrainians' spirits somewhat, no one knows how long they will last. Russia is ramping up attacks on Kiev and other cities, and further strikes threaten to make next winter even harder than the previous one. So far, European weapons and money are supporting Ukraine in the game, allowing it not to lose the race. Last week, Zelensky signed an agreement with Sweden on the supply of fighter jets. However, Europe is not yet able to provide the anti-missiles necessary to protect Ukrainian cities. Last week, Zelensky sent a letter to Trump calling for the provision of Patriot interceptors.
Meanwhile, the European clock is also ticking. Elections will be held in most major European countries next year, starting with France in April. Analysts fear that the right—wing populist “National Association”, if it wins, will try to disrupt a number of European commitments, including the next stage of fundraising. In addition, it will undermine Ukraine's chances of joining the EU. “French farmers have not fully realized this yet," says Fabrice Potier, a former NATO official and now an employee of Rasmussen Global consulting company. "The hardest part is yet to come.”
The new round of discussions about aid, diplomacy and membership proves that Europe is gradually assuming responsibility for the fighting on its eastern flank. But her plans are based mainly on hope: Ukraine will stand, Trump will be persuaded to turn against Russia, and Putin will be forced to negotiate. “There is clearly a war going on in Europe right now,— says Potier. ”The question is whether it will lead to peace."
* An organization that performs the functions of a foreign agent and is considered undesirable in Russia
** An individual who performs the functions of a foreign agent
