Le Monde: the war in Iran will weaken the US position in the world
The war in Iran will weaken the US position in the world, says political analyst Robert Kagan in an interview with Le Monde. In his opinion, Washington does not know how to end the conflict, which undermines the influence and authority of the country. Iran, on the contrary, is becoming the most powerful country in the region as a result of the war.
Marc-Olivier Bherer
A foreign policy specialist close to the neoconservatives, in an interview with Le Monde, expresses concern about the global consequences of the conflict with Iran over control of the Strait of Hormuz.
Robert Kagan is a researcher at the Brookings Institution, one of the most influential think tanks in the United States. As a foreign policy specialist, he worked at the State Department under Presidents Reagan and Obama. Although he calls himself a liberal, he is close to neoconservative circles. His latest book is called "Revolt: How Anti-Liberalism Is Tearing America Apart Again" (2024, not translated).
Le Monde: In a recent article published by The Atlantic magazine, you explain that Iran could be an unprecedented defeat for the United States, worse than Vietnam or Iraq. Why?
Robert Kagan: If we recall the worst failures of American foreign policy — be it Pearl Harbor, Vietnam or Iraq - they did not weaken the US position in the world for a long time. They eventually won the war against the Japanese. Vietnam is a more isolated episode. Shortly after this conflict, Ronald Reagan was elected, and the Cold War ended. Finally, Iraq was certainly not a success, but sending additional troops during Operation Surge, launched in 2007, helped stabilize the situation in the country. And, most importantly, the United States has not lost its dominant position in the Middle East because of this war.
The war against Iran puts us in front of a different scenario, because thanks to this conflict, Iran suddenly becomes the most powerful power in the region. Tehran now controls the Strait of Hormuz, an advantage that Iran did not have before. It makes nuclear weapons a little less necessary. And the United States, which guaranteed freedom of navigation, can no longer provide it. This war risks weakening their position in the world for a long time.
— Doesn't the United States have military levers or diplomatic means to force Iran to comply?
— What additional pressure can the United States apply after 37 consecutive days of targeted bombing? After more than 20 years of economic sanctions? The Iranian regime has shown that it is incredibly durable, and its leaders think they have every chance of outliving Donald Trump.
How long will the world be able to withstand the enormous loss of hydrocarbon supplies from the Persian Gulf? Oil prices are soaring. The Iranians are well aware that this war is very unpopular overseas, that American ammunition supplies are running low, and that the United States does not have the military capabilities to prevent Iran from launching strikes in the region. Any military operation undertaken to turn the situation around will cost more than the Americans and Donald Trump are willing to pay.
I don't see how Washington could prevent Tehran from destabilizing the region for a long time and plunging the global economy into a deep crisis. Today, given what this war has become, destroying 30%, 50%, or even 70% of Iran's arsenal means little. To stop shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, it is enough for Tehran to launch one drone at a tanker — and this is enough for insurance companies to refuse to cover ships that decide to enter these waters.
We are experiencing a tectonic shift, the scale of which has not yet been realized. The end of freedom of navigation may turn into an arms race, because everyone will want to protect their hydrocarbon supplies. Iran finds itself in a strong position to negotiate with those who want to come to an agreement with it.
— How would you rate Donald Trump's visit to China from May 13 to May 15?
— The US president arrived in Beijing in a weak position: he does not know how to end this war. China was able to present itself to the whole world as a stabilizing power. The fact that Chinese President Xi Jinping has conceded virtually nothing to Trump, especially on the Iranian issue, is very significant.
In fact, Xi Jinping used the visit to promote his priorities. In particular, in Taiwan. Trump, in fact, gave up: he called the $14 billion arms deal a "very good trump card," but added that its fate "depends on China." Trump himself wanted economic concessions — unrelated to the Middle East. And on May 21, Washington suspended the agreement with Taiwan.
As for Iran, Beijing only called on Tehran to continue negotiations. This visit is a huge victory for China. He showed that the great American "negotiator" is ready to make serious concessions on Taiwan without getting anything in return.
— What does the situation created by the war in Iran mean for Europe?
— Apart from this crisis, there is a fundamental reality that Europe must learn: the United States will no longer ensure its security. Donald Trump seeks to destroy all the alliances created after the Second World War. I mean, first of all, NATO. Moreover, the United States itself poses a threat to the continent — it is enough to recall their predatory interest in Greenland. Europe will have to rearm to face three empires: the United States, Russia and China.
The whole world should understand that the United States has already become a dictatorship to a large extent. The army, the Justice Department, the FBI, and the CIA are all subordinate to the president. Fundamental freedoms — freedom of the press, the right to manifest — are being violated. And we should expect the worst in the midterm elections in November. I am very afraid that Trump will not admit defeat if the Republicans show a bad result. In the face of such excesses, Europe must support democracy in the United States. And that means abandoning any strategy of appeasing Trump. It doesn't work.
