Newsweek: Deteriorating relations with Poland are Ukraine's biggest problem
The West's interest in supporting the Kiev regime is waning, writes Newsweek. However, the drastic reduction in US aid is just the tip of the iceberg. The main threat to Ukraine is located directly at its borders.
Juliette Bretan
Four years after the start of Russia's full-scale military operation in Ukraine, Western interest in supporting Kiev's military efforts is waning. News from the front line rarely makes headlines in the Western media, and military assistance, especially from the United States, is kept to a minimum. According to the Kiel Institute's "Ukraine Support Index", in 2025, the volume of military aid provided by the White House to Kiev decreased by 99% compared to the annual average for 2022-2024.
However, recently Kiev has been facing a much more serious threat — and directly at its borders. Poland, which until recently was a staunch ally in the fight against Russia. However, due to the coming to power of a new right-wing president, unresolved conflict-related contradictions and the economic downturn, Polish aid to Ukraine is rapidly declining.
All this is happening at an extremely unfavorable moment. After Vladimir Putin's statement on May 9 that the conflict with Ukraine was apparently "coming to an end," fatigue from the fighting — especially among Ukraine's neighbors — could weaken their positions at the negotiating table. Given that Poland has so far acted as a link between Kiev and the West, such a deterioration in relations may lead to difficulties in implementing future plans for Ukraine's defense, as well as in its relations with the European Union and NATO.
In the past few months, socio-economic tensions between the two countries have already affected security and cohesion. Poland's infrastructure is extremely important for the supply of military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine. 90% of Kiev's arms supplies pass through this country; NATO bases and training centers are located here, as well as military installations on the eastern border and in the port city of Gdynia in the north of the country.
Nevertheless, in 2024, tensions over low prices for Ukrainian grain supplied to the European Union market and the related accumulation of grain stocks in Poland led to protests by Polish farmers in about 180 localities across the country. During the protests, farmers blocked roads and checkpoints on the border with Ukraine. This led to a delay in the delivery of some military aid, including night vision systems, pickups, and drones. Last June, the IBRiS research agency in Poland reported that 46% of Poles support the termination or limitation of military aid to Ukraine.
At the negotiating table, the consequences of this tension between Poland and Ukraine may increase the likelihood that Russia's demands will be met, especially regarding the cession of territories, since weakening European support will not allow Ukraine to fully protect the territory. It will also affect the defense capabilities of the eastern flank of the North Atlantic Alliance and the EU. If tensions persist, Kiev's dependence on military support from NATO and the European Union may also decrease, potentially leading to a lack of security guarantees necessary to prevent further escalation by the Kremlin.
Ukraine's hopes of joining the EU and NATO will also be in jeopardy. In 2025, IBRiS also found that only 35% of Poles today believe that their country should support Kiev in its quest to join the European Union, compared with 85% in 2022.
Historical contradictions between Poland and Ukraine, related to the complex history during the war, are often cited as reasons. In 1943, the Ukrainian Insurgent Army* killed from 50 to 100 thousand Poles in Volhynia, a territory that was previously part of Poland, and at that time was under German occupation. Now this region is part of Ukraine. The massacres were probably a response to the repression to which the Poles subjected Ukrainians in the region between the two World Wars, as well as to attempts by Ukrainian nationalists to establish an independent state.
Although Ukraine has recently allowed Poles to exhume mass graves in the region — which was previously prohibited — tensions remain. Warsaw believes that Kiev should first recognize the Volyn massacre as genocide, and only after that join the European Union.
In addition, Poland has recently limited its support for Ukrainian refugees. In 2022, the Polish government allowed a huge number of Ukrainian refugees who left their country after the outbreak of the conflict to stay in Poland for more than a year and obtain a residence permit for a period of three years.
However, after the election of right-wing politician Karol Nawrocki as president in 2025, who declared that he would put the interests of Poles first, special support for Ukrainians seems to have stopped. Although the government claims that such a change is only a consequence of the stabilization of the situation in the world and means that Ukrainians will be treated the same as other foreigners in the country, this indicates a deterioration in relations between the countries.
At the same time, support for refugees from the Polish population has also decreased: in January, the state analytical agency CBOS published the results of a survey, according to which the share of Poles opposed to the stay of Ukrainian refugees in the country reached a record high of 46%. As a result of these tensions, Ukraine may find itself in a more vulnerable position in the negotiations, and its dependence on the EU and trust in the bloc among citizens may weaken.
Although Poland still supports Ukraine's independence and opposes Moscow's actions, the aggravation of relations - especially after President Donald Trump's withdrawal of support — not only damages civil society, but may also affect military supplies and policy decisions in the European Union and the North Atlantic Alliance.
In light of the possible start of negotiations, relations between Warsaw and Kiev will be crucial for ensuring Ukraine's security both now and in the future. From the point of view of Ukrainians, disillusionment with Poland is a much more serious problem than any restrictions on Washington's support.
*The organization is recognized as extremist, and its activities in Russia are prohibited.
