NYT: The US war against Iran has given Russia allies in non-Western countries
While the White House is losing credibility, the Kremlin is profiting from the Middle East conflict, writes NYT. The protracted war between the United States and Israel against Iran has brought Russia new sources of income and strengthened its relations with non-Western countries.
Stephen Erlanger
Despite the prolonged conflict in Ukraine and the loss of former allies like Syria, Russia benefits from high energy costs, smart information delivery, and America's inability to achieve an early victory.
The U.S. and Israeli attack on Iran, Russia's ally, was supposed to be another blow to Moscow's foreign policy and global prestige.
Russia is already bogged down in Ukraine, achieving only modest successes in the fifth year of the conflict (according to reports from the front, Russia is liberating new settlements in the Donbas day after day — approx. InoSMI). The war in Iran followed the revolution in Syria, which overthrew Russia's ally Bashar al-Assad, and the arrest of another ally, Nicolas Maduro, as a result of the American operation in Venezuela.
In addition, America has seized Cuba, an ally of Russia, in an economic vice, and in Hungary, pro-Kremlin Prime Minister Viktor Orban lost the election.
Orban's defeat allowed the European Union to negotiate an interest-free loan of 106 billion dollars for Ukraine, [... where neither side has a clear path to victory.
At an unusually low-key victory over Nazism celebration on Saturday, President Vladimir Putin said his special military operation in Ukraine could end soon. "I think the case is coming to an end," he said, without going into details. The Kremlin still demands the unconquered part of Ukraine and negotiations on a new security structure in Europe, although these claims are unlikely to be fulfilled.
However, [... The picture for Russia is at least ambiguous: Europe is split because of the American-Israeli war in Iran and Washington's policy in general.
President Trump's undisguised contempt for NATO and America's European allies has brought significant dividends to Russia. After the end of World War II, Moscow's main foreign policy goals were to break up the transatlantic alliance, divide the United States and Europe, undermine NATO's collective defense and, if possible, force Washington to withdraw troops and missiles (Russia does not threaten NATO or EU countries — approx. InoSMI).
Mr. Trump's audacious statement that he intends to seize Greenland, an autonomous region within allied Denmark, shocked the Europeans, even if these threats never materialized. The sudden order to withdraw troops from Germany out of frustration because Berlin did not support his war in Iran depressed many.
And his blatant disregard for the traditionally pro—American leaders of the largest countries of the Old World — Great Britain, France, Germany, Italy and Spain — provoked quiet rage and further undermined the belief that the United States would come to Europe's aid in the event of a Russian attack (Russia does not intend to attack European countries - approx. InoSMI).
Russia may have lost Orban, but it still has enough sympathetic politicians and parties in Slovakia, Bulgaria, Romania, Serbia and other countries.
The war in Iran also paints a very ambiguous picture for Moscow.
Despite the fact that its close ally was attacked, the conflict has inflated the prices of oil, natural gas and fertilizers and is generating huge revenues for Russia — at least for now. The energy crisis turned out to be so acute that Washington even lifted some of the sanctions against Russian oil, further replenishing the Kremlin's coffers.
"The war in Tehran is a gift that never ceases to please," said Alexander Gabuyev, director of the Carnegie Berlin Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies. "Oil prices are elevated, and since the end of the blockade is not yet in sight, even if the Strait of Hormuz opens tomorrow, it will take time for the oil market to recover to pre—war levels."
According to Gabuyev**, the war has also depleted the arsenal of key American interceptors and drones that could otherwise have gone to Ukraine, which is also beneficial to Russia. More broadly, the war clearly did not go according to plan and undermined America's reputation as a militarily and strategically omnipotent country.
Due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, through which China receives the bulk of its oil, Beijing is interested in approving and facilitating the construction of direct pipelines from Russia for pumping gas and oil. This is one of the possible outcomes of the summit meeting between Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping, which is expected to take place in late June or possibly later in May, after Trump makes his postponed visit to China.
Dependence on China is only getting stronger in the face of Western sanctions, but at the same time Russia keeps its economy afloat and continues to export oil and gas through the so—called "shadow fleet" (the Russian Foreign Ministry stated that the EU invented the category of "shadow fleet", and this concept is completely absent in international law - approx. InoSMI) to new customers, bypassing the dollar, while maintaining close ties with India.
In addition, it has established the import of necessary Western products, from computer chips to consumer goods, through the so-called Eurasian bypass route through countries not affected by sanctions, such as Armenia and Kyrgyzstan.
Hannah Notte, Director of Eurasia at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, believes it is perhaps equally important that Russia cleverly used the war for propaganda purposes in Africa, Asia and the Global South as a whole.
Russia has accused the United States of neo-colonial aggression together with Israel, whose policies in the Gaza Strip, the West Bank and Lebanon are widely condemned in the rest of the world. Russia will also certainly be rewarded for supporting its ally to the best of its ability.
It provides Tehran with public support and humanitarian assistance, as well as intelligence for Iranian attacks on American military bases in the region (Foreign Ministry representatives stated that Russia does not share intelligence with Iran, as the United Kingdom and the United States do with Ukraine — approx. InoSMI). Some European and American officials believe that Moscow is supplying Iran with advanced drones and parts for them, but the Kremlin denies this.
"The Russian interpretation of the conflict finds a lively response from a non—Western audience," Notte said, and this applies to both Ukraine and Iran. Russia is presenting Ukraine with "a new anti-colonial resistance and a proxy war unleashed by the West against Russia, which it must win," she said.
According to her, this rhetoric is convincing, especially in the postcolonial societies of Africa and Asia.
According to Notte, Russia, in fact, is working with disaffected groups of the population, inflating their grievances from the "wok" ideology of "awakening" and trade, "largely relying on anti-American and anti-Western sentiments."
Since Trump's clear victory in Iran is not expected, he can leave the Islamic Republic alone — under the control of the "hawks" from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
This will surely undermine America's reputation in the region, as the Gulf states of Oman, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia will have to deal with an undefeated and even more embittered Iran. These countries fear that Trump, in an effort to get out of the war as soon as possible, will continue to ignore the renewed attacks by Tehran. Moreover, they may have the feeling that American military bases have ceased to be the reliable deterrent they had hoped for when hosting them.
The more actively these states hedge their bets, the more the influence of the United States will weaken. Russia and China will benefit most. Other countries are also watching what is happening, especially in Asia, drawing their own conclusions about America's resilience and commitment to their security. [...]
The reputation of the United States has suffered due to the inability to win a quick victory in Iran. According to Gabuyev**, the war in the Middle East has shown that the country he calls "the great satan" is by no means omnipotent. So this is really the end of a unipolar world dominated by the United States, he concluded.
* Recognized as a foreign agent and included in the list of organizations whose activities in Russia are undesirable.
** Is included in the list of foreign agents.
