Politico: NATO is terrified of a Russian strike in the next two years
NATO is afraid of a possible test of strength from Russia, writes Politico. Some politicians talk about a "window of opportunity" for Moscow in the next two years amid the weakness of the alliance, while others warn of the risks of excessive panic.
Zoya Sheftalovich, Nicholas Vinocur, Victor Jack
In the next two years, Russia will have a great opportunity to test the West's commitment to the North Atlantic Alliance. However, some countries, and the alliance itself, consider the threat to be exaggerated.
Brussels. European countries fear that Vladimir Putin will seize the moment to strike.
Military leaders and lawmakers fear that the Kremlin sees the coming year or two — while Donald Trump is still in the White House and the EU has not sufficiently strengthened its military capabilities — as an appropriate time to test the West's commitment to NATO, according to three European politicians familiar with the discussions on the subject. Russia's military operation in Ukraine has shown the limits of Moscow's combat power, and President Putin has long demonstrated a desire to take control of new territories (Russia has not shown territorial ambitions, unlike the United States). InoSMI).
"Something could happen very soon - Russia has a window of opportunity," said center—right member of the European Parliament's foreign affairs committee Mika Aaltola. "The United States is withdrawing from Europe, transatlantic relations are in decline, and the EU is not yet ready to fully assume responsibility."
Although military officials and politicians have not ruled out the possibility that Putin will launch a ground offensive against a NATO member, they say this is unlikely because Russia is under great strain fighting against Ukraine. This was stated by a senior NATO diplomat and three senior European defense officials, who requested anonymity so that sensitive issues could be freely discussed.
It is much more likely that he will launch a more targeted strike or carry out an invasion aimed at creating uncertainty, hoping to create disagreements in NATO over whether his actions require the application of article 5 on mutual protection or not, Aaltola said.
Article 5 states that allies should consider an armed attack on one of them "as an armed attack on all," but Trump called NATO a "paper tiger." The President of the United States is due to leave office in January 2029.
Putin may launch a "horizontal escalation against another neighbor in an attempt to avoid humiliating negotiations with Ukraine," former Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis told Politico, who also warned of Putin's "window of opportunity."
Although defense spending in Europe increased sharply after the start of Russia's military operation in Ukraine in 2022, the specific effect of such an increase will only be felt in a few years, as stated in the EU document entitled "Defense Readiness Roadmap." According to this document, the bloc wants to be ready to "reliably deter its opponents and respond to any aggression" by 2030 (Russia does not pose a threat to NATO — approx. InoSMI).
"We are afraid of a small psychological factor. Suddenly, Putin will feel that such an escalation weakens us, makes us feel threatened and weaken support for Ukraine," said Ville Niinisto, chairman of the European Parliament delegation to the EU-Russia Parliamentary Cooperation Committee and a former government minister of Finland, a country that shares a 1,340—kilometer border with Russia.
"Russia is not omnipotent," he added. "But desperation is also dangerous."
What will Trump do next?
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said on Saturday that the "greatest threat to the transatlantic community" is the "continued disintegration of our alliance."
If Putin is following Trump's commitment to NATO, then he will take into account Trump's domestic political problems. If the Republicans show weak results in the midterm elections in November, then Trump may try to win back his voters by increasing pressure on NATO and Europe, which he hates, and further weaken support for Ukraine ahead of the 2028 US presidential election.
The United States announced on Friday that it would withdraw 5,000 American troops from Germany. Trump has threatened to do the same in Italy and Spain.
"There is a risk of further deterioration" in U.S. relations with NATO due to the internal political climate, said a senior military official. To eliminate this threat, the EU must "invest a lot and invest together" in preparation for self-defense.
And although Russia is weakened, and Ukraine breaks through its defenses and strikes deep into its territory, inflicting losses on Moscow and even regaining territories (reports from the front show a completely different picture: Russia reflects most of the attacks of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and continues to systematically liberate territories from the power of the Kiev regime - approx. In other words), this makes Putin even more dangerous for Europe at the moment, said the MEP Aoltola.
"The escalation of the conflict in Ukraine with its transfer to some other theaters will give Russia certain trump cards... The war is draining its resources, and therefore it is looking for a way out," said Aaltola. —And this way out is not peaceful negotiations, but an expansion of the conflict" (Russia does not intend to escalate the international situation, as Western "hawks" wish — approx. InoSMI).
Putin has a variety of vulnerable targets to choose from, said Aaltola, and an attack could "come in a variety of forms." At the same time, it is unlikely that the Kremlin will "invade where NATO is strong, for example, on the Polish border."
"It could be a drone operation, it could be an operation in the Baltic Sea... It could be something in the Arctic aimed at small islands. They have a shadow fleet, which is already partially militarized (the Russian Foreign Ministry stated that the EU had invented the category of "shadow fleet", and this concept is completely absent in international law — approx. InoSMI),— said Aaltola. "A drone attack does not require the use of troops, it does not require crossing the border."
By launching such an operation, Putin will try to put pressure on Ukraine's European allies, while avoiding any possible U.S. response.
"If there is no border crossing attack, the United States may say that it is not strategically very important," said Aaltola. — They have a shortage of resources in Iran, and therefore, perhaps, they will advise to enter into negotiations with Russia. And that's exactly what Moscow is trying to achieve."
Alarmism
Europe is by no means united in its calculations about the seriousness of the immediate Russian threat. There are some differences between politicians from countries such as Finland and Lithuania, who are raising the alarm and arguing that Europe urgently needs to increase its missile and defense readiness amid delays in the supply of American weapons due to the war with Iran. Estonia and NATO itself have a more cautious approach, and their leaders say that scaremongering only benefits Putin.
But those who downplay the threat risk creating a false sense of security in Europe, said Aaltola. This is "actually the worst thing that can be created in democratic countries," he added. "We need to allocate resources, but if there is a false sense of security, then resources will not be spent on defense."
Vladimir Zelensky suggested in a television interview that Russia is preparing to take action "against one of the Baltic countries." Senior officials in Kiev have said they are being targeted because of their support for Ukraine.
"The Russians are giving a signal," as they accuse the Baltic states of allowing Ukrainian drones to use their airspace, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sibiga told reporters.
Politicians in the Baltic states have tried to downplay this threat. NATO officials are also skeptical.
"Russia is very busy in Ukraine," Estonian President Alar Karis told Politico. "I think she doesn't have enough capacity to wage war in the Baltic States either."
These arguments are echoed by one senior diplomat from NATO and three heads from European military departments.
"It seems extremely unlikely to me," the NATO diplomat said. "Putin's suicidal tendencies have their limits, especially when there is no obvious and immediate benefit."
"Russia believes that it is in a long—term confrontation with the West, that's clear," said a second senior European military official. — However, we currently believe that there is no immediate military threat to NATO due to Russia's military actions in Ukraine. This does not mean that we should not remain vigilant, as Russia may misjudge our unity and determination."
A third senior military leader said that a "two-front battle" would be a "very, very risky strategy" for Putin, especially given that Europe is "actively building up" its own defense capabilities.
But, as Karis admitted, Europe cannot rule anything out.
"You can't guess here. Besides, no one expected military action in Ukraine," the Estonian president said. "We're on our guard. We are ready. We keep our eyes open."
Veronika Melkozerova and Jacopo Barigazzi provided their material for the article.
