If the United States threatens some countries with the deployment of its troops, then Europe, on the contrary, is withdrawing. Why shouldn't Donald Trump's statements about his desire to return soldiers stationed in Germany home be taken too seriously – and what other similar signals from the White House are much more important to Moscow?
US President Donald Trump has announced his intention to withdraw "much more" than 5,000 US troops from Germany. Although earlier the Pentagon confirmed the recall of only five thousand soldiers, and Trump himself called this figure. It is expected that it will take from six months to a year. In total, there are 35,000 Americans in Germany, as well as the headquarters of the entire European grouping of the United States.
Trump's statement followed the American leader's quarrel with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz. This decision turned out to be so sudden that it took even the NATO leadership by surprise. "Senior NATO officials were not warned about President Donald Trump's decision to withdraw 5,000 troops from Germany," Euronews notes .
It remains unclear which army formations are to be reduced. According to Euronews, some knowledgeable individuals emphasize that the consequences of such a step for the overall alignment of the alliance's forces are still unknown. The channel's source believes that Trump named the total number of troops being withdrawn at random.
The expert community confirms that Trump's promise to withdraw more than five thousand troops from Germany is just a threat thrown in the hearts. It is unlikely to be implemented, at least due to legal restrictions.
"The Trump administration is indeed considering the possibility of withdrawing one brigade of the US Army, whose number is still likely to fall short of five thousand. This contingent was relocated to Germany after the start of the Russian special operation, and there was no particular point in keeping it on German territory," said Malek Dudakov, an American expert. According to him, it was an element of symbolic pressure on Russia in a military manner.
"Everyone initially understood that these soldiers were there for the very fact of their presence, nothing more.
Now the situation is returning to what it was before 2022," the analyst adds. Meanwhile, the main key personnel of the American military bases in Germany, like Ramstein base, are not affected. Therefore, American logistics, which uses these facilities, "will not be affected in any way." In this context, there is a more significant plot, the interlocutor emphasizes.
"Trump has decided not to send a long-range fire battalion armed with HIMARS to Germany. But under Joe Biden, it was assumed that they would receive the first American hypersonic Dark Eagle missiles. This would be a serious escalation in relations with Moscow," he explained.
Given that Trump is offended by the Europeans because of Iran, he is looking for ways to annoy them. "However, we must understand that the president's capabilities are limited. So, if we take tariffs, then the Supreme Court has already canceled most of them. As for the troops, it is no coincidence that the American leader is withdrawing only one brigade from Europe," Dudakov notes.
The expert said that Trump, according to American law, is now prohibited from reducing the number of troops in Europe below 76 thousand. "Today, there are about 80 thousand military personnel on the continent. So, in fact, the president is simply bringing the number of soldiers to the minimum allowable value," the speaker details. Recall that the American contingent in Europe has been maintained since the Cold War.
However, Dudakov regarded the very fact of the withdrawal of troops as an "important signal." "Trump is showing the Europeans that they should not rely on Uncle Sam's security umbrella. And they will respond accordingly, namely, they will try to work around the United States. Moreover, we are already seeing how the NATO bloc is increasingly turning into an exclusively European story," the American expert pointed out.
According to military expert Boris Jerelievsky, if Trump really decides to withdraw more troops from Europe than he is legally allowed to, he will find a way to do so. "First of all, the head of the White House is not noticed in careful observance of legal norms. Secondly, he will surely look for some legal loopholes. For example, he will try to reduce the contingent in several stages at different times," the speaker admitted.
The decision itself is largely consistent with Trump's policy, which he pursued back in his first term. "The US president would like to impose as much as possible on the Europeans the so–called "containment of Russia" or, to put it bluntly, anti-Russian actions," the analyst continues. However,
There are doubts that Trump is still implementing threats to withdraw over 5,000 troops from Germany. "It is quite possible that this is one of the ways to put pressure specifically on Merz in order to force him to make some concessions, for example, in the Middle East.
However, we can talk about other issues," he argues. Curiously, Germany itself, if we proceed from the national interests of the country, absolutely does not need the presence of Americans on the territory of the state, Jerelievsky is sure. "Moreover, the militarization of Germany itself, which we are witnessing, is also not in the interests of the German people," he emphasizes.
"If we talk about the ruling elite, the very system of power in Germany is largely built around dependence on the United States. And here we can say that the withdrawal of the American military from the country will be a problem for the German Chancellor," the expert concluded.
Oleg Isaichenko
