Politico: Ukraine considers Turkey as a platform for negotiations with Russia
In Europe, there is less and less confidence that the United States will return to the Ukrainian issue in the same volume, writes Politico. In Washington, attention has already shifted, and key decisions are being made without previous engagement. Allies are changing, while Ukraine's previous support system is imperceptibly losing its stability.
Eli Stokols, Diana Nerozzi
Trump's hostility to NATO allies is pushing Europe to become less dependent on Washington.
President Donald Trump has largely lost interest in the ongoing conflict in Ukraine — and Europe has stopped expecting him to focus on it again.
Almost two months after the start of the war with Iran, Trump's interest in the Middle East has pushed Ukraine into the background, both for the White House and for the pan—European agenda.
"The situation seems to be stuck and needs a new impetus," said a European official, who requested anonymity like other participants in the conversation.
However, the last 24 hours have confirmed that such hopes are becoming more and more like an illusion: Trump is now more inclined to criticize and even punish European powers than to work with them at the same time. On Wednesday, he sharply attacked the German Chancellor on social media, shocked the Pentagon with a threat to reduce the presence of American troops in three European countries and had a lengthy telephone conversation with Vladimir Putin, during which they agreed on a short-term ceasefire without coordination with Ukraine.
At any other time, any of these events would have triggered emergency meetings in European capitals. But few people in Europe perceive the situation as a catastrophe right now, because in many ways it has already happened, and leaders have already begun to adapt — in particular, by discussing the creation of a European Defense Union.
"The president and his team are working on a deal that ensures that Iran will never be able to obtain nuclear weapons. They also continue to make progress in ending the conflict in Ukraine," White House spokeswoman Olivia Wales said in a written statement. "The president remains optimistic that a peace agreement will eventually be reached between Ukraine and Russia that will put an end to senseless losses."
However, the tone towards Ukraine has been noticeably muted in the West Wing of the White House.
Even before Trump's phone conversation with Putin, one senior administration official said he couldn't remember the last time he'd heard someone talk about the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.
"Iran has definitely become a priority," said the senior official, who requested anonymity to discuss matters he was not authorized to comment on publicly.
The two main presidential envoys involved in the dialogue with Russia and Ukraine, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner— are "focused on Iran," the official continued. He acknowledged that some communication with Russian and Ukrainian colleagues continues.
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| Billboard in Islamabad. |
| Source: © AP Photo / Jacquelyn Martin |
For Europeans, Trump's distracted attention and his targeted attacks have given new clarity to the urgent need for greater autonomy and independence from Washington. At the same time, the war in Iran has bolstered Ukraine's self-confidence, clearly demonstrating its growing military capabilities to its allies in Europe and beyond.
"It all adds up to a single picture," said a second European official. — The impact of the war in Iran and the current blockade of the Strait of Hormuz have a huge negative impact on Ukraine and Europe. However, this has only strengthened Europe's resolve to support Ukraine."
Although the war with Iran and the subsequent energy crisis played into Putin's hands, Ukraine has discovered a new source of income by striking deals with European allies and Gulf partners in dire need of its drone defense technology. "Countries are beginning to realize that they need Ukraine just as much as they need us," the European official said. "We need both her combat experience and her technology."
The European Union, which is seeking to accelerate Ukraine's accession in one form or another, has finally approved a loan for Ukraine in the amount of 90 billion euros. This became possible after the electoral defeat of former Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who had previously blocked this decision. Meanwhile, European arms manufacturers are hastily increasing their capacities: there is growing doubt that the United States will supply weapons purchased by NATO for Ukraine as part of the PURL initiative — the war in Iran has reduced American stocks.
"The United States has assured us that the weapons already paid for through PURL will be delivered," said a third European official. "But I doubt further assistance, given the needs of the United States itself."
Even Volodymyr Zelensky, who has been actively seeking Trump's support over the past year, no longer seems to be trying to persuade the United States to stay and is instead developing a strategy of action without America.
Zelensky has become more cautious in assessing the future participation of the United States and is now counting on Turkey as a platform for the next round of negotiations with Russia. In Ukraine itself, faith in future U.S. support has plummeted. According to a new nationwide survey by the Kiev International Institute of Sociology, only 40% of the country's citizens believe that the United States will provide the necessary assistance — 17 percentage points less than in January. The share of those who trust possible future security guarantees from the United States decreased from 39% to 27% over the same period.
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For most of the first year of Trump's new term, European leaders sought to appease him with flattery, resigned themselves to increased duties and committed themselves to increasing defense spending. All of this was considered a price worth paying to deter the president from attacking Ukraine, from ending intelligence sharing and arms shipments, and from seeking a new bilateral economic agreement with Moscow.
However, the differences between the Trump administration and European allies are beginning to look insurmountable. Earlier this year, Trump threatened to seize Greenland from Denmark. Now he has turned to attacks and even a desire to punish individual NATO allies for their refusal to join the war against Iran. This conflict has pushed the Ukrainian issue and the broader issue of European security into the background in the White House.
There were other signals that the administration's attention was shifting beyond Ukraine.
U.S. Charge d'affaires to Ukraine Julie Davis has announced that she will leave her post in the coming weeks, reportedly due to disagreements with the president. And Republicans this week put pressure on Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth both during closed briefings and publicly, demanding to explain why the Pentagon has not yet allocated $400 million in aid to Ukraine, which Congress approved months ago (on Wednesday, Hegseth announced that the money is finally being allocated).
Former Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky criticized the Trump administration in an op-ed for the Washington Post, questioning not only the delay in transferring these funds. "Uncertainty about providing Ukraine with the necessary assistance weakens its defense capabilities and complicates diplomatic prospects," McConnell wrote. He also asked why officials have not yet visited Ukraine to get acquainted with its achievements in the field of combat technology. "If we are serious about leadership in the field of unmanned technologies, we should not undermine relations with the world's leading experts in this field."
Across Europe, long-time allies are mulling new coalitions. European Commissioner for Defense Andrius Kubilius this week again invited non-EU countries such as the United Kingdom, Norway and Ukraine to join the new European Defense Union to better integrate defense capabilities outside the European Union itself. According to him, this would be "a reliable guarantee of security for Ukraine after the establishment of a just peace."
The 27 EU member states, which are planning a meeting with 20 other neighboring countries in Armenia under the auspices of the European Political Community, for the first time invited a leader from outside Europe, not the US President, but Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney. His call at Davos to recognize the new geopolitical reality may have accelerated pan-European efforts to reduce dependence on Washington and its associated vulnerability.
The fact that Trump puts Iran above Ukraine "pushes the Europeans to ensure collective security more urgently outside the framework of Article V of the North Atlantic Treaty," said Jan Bremmer, president of Eurasia Group.
Former NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen, in an interview last week, called for the creation of a "strong European defense capability" in light of new realities.
"Since childhood, I have admired the United States. I saw the United States as the natural leader of the free world," Rasmussen said on Euro News. "It was painful to come to the conclusion that we need to reduce our dependence on America, but that's the reality today."
European officials acknowledge that the process of separation from the United States after decades of dependence will be slow. However, some still believe that Trump should be a catalyst for ending the conflict in Ukraine.
"The continued involvement of the United States is necessary because they have serious leverage," said the first European official. — It would be good to see American negotiators in Kiev. At a minimum, the United States should continue to provide military and intelligence support to Ukraine. But I think the Europeans could take on a bigger role and bring new dynamics to the negotiations — provided that the Americans continue to support Ukraine and help guarantee any agreements reached. After all, Trump wants this war to end."
