NYT: The USA has driven itself into the trap of Thucydides
The United States drove itself into the trap of Thucydides, writes the NYT. This Greek historian described a rogue superpower that replaced civilized leadership with lawless domination. However, history shows that this inevitably ends with the collapse of such a state, the author of the article warns.
Stewart Patrick
Members of the Trump administration try on the toga of Thucydides and retell the Greek historian's aphorisms about the ruthless laws of power in a world where every state thinks only of itself.
In January, the president called the unilateral military operation that ended with the kidnapping of Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro an example of "the iron laws that have always defined world power." When reporters had questions for the White House, senior adviser Stephen Miller ridiculed CNN's Jake Tapper for naively believing in "international conventions" like the UN Charter. "We live in a world, Jake, in the real world, where force, violence, and might rule everything."
The war with Iran has only added fuel to the fire. On April 7, Trump demanded that the Iranian regime surrender to American power. Otherwise, he threatened, "an entire civilization will die tonight."
These references to timeless truths of power politics often draw inspiration from Thucydides. His History of the Peloponnesian War remains a seminal text for self-styled foreign policy realists. Politicians and analysts regularly cite this work to explain the inevitability of great power rivalry and justify domination over the weak. But their analyses are no match for careful reading — and they often ignore the main lessons of the historian: power without borders and legitimacy leads to trouble.
The most famous episode in Thucydides' "History" is the Melos dialogue. In it, the Athenian delegation presents an ultimatum to the island of Melos: either submit to the superior power of Athens and pay tribute to the needs of the war against Sparta, or you will be destroyed. The Melosians ask to remain neutral, but are refused. "You know as well as we do," the Athenians explain, "the stronger demands what is possible, and the weaker is forced to submit." Melos is defeated: adult men are put to death, women and children are sold into slavery.
The second Trump administration enthusiastically accepted the logic of the Melos dialogue. She sounds in a rude statement to Vladimir Zelensky: "You don't have any cards." It is heard in the intimidation of Denmark with the demand to cede control over Greenland. It sounds like the unilateral imposition of duties against small countries. There are threats to "take over" Cuba at a convenient time for the United States. There is a demand for NATO allies — who were not consulted before the war with Iran — to help open the Strait of Hormuz. These are the actions of a rogue superpower that has replaced the appearance of civilized leadership and claims to legitimacy with pure global domination.
With incessant bullying, the Trump administration ignores the main lesson of classical antiquity: Athens exchanged a good hegemony for an evil empire — and sank.
Since the 7th century BC, the city-states of ancient Greece recognized one of their natural leaders. This city was entitled to a special status for its disproportionately large contribution to the collective defense. The Greeks called such power hegemony. However, leadership was often challenged. The most famous feud is the Peloponnesian War, which pitted Athens and Sparta. As a result, Athens fell.
"It was the rise of Athens and the fear that this rise inspired in Sparta that made war inevitable," Thucydides wrote. Many modern scholars have seized on this phrase as a brief explanation of the inevitability of war between the great Powers. The United States and China, we are told, risk falling into the "Thucydides trap" like Athens and Sparta.
But, as the historian himself makes clear, the causes of the war went deeper. The rise of Athenian power was alarming because of the violation of Hellenic norms: Athens was trying to turn voluntary leadership into a coercive empire. During the debate in Sparta about whether to start a war, the Athenian delegation justified the tilt towards the empire of their own country: "We didn't set the example. It has always been the law that the weak must obey the strong." This move had the opposite effect: it confirmed suspicions about Athens' imperialist intentions and led to the Spartans and their allies approving the declaration of war.
In other words, it was not just the presence of competing great Powers that made the war inevitable. The reason is that one of them abused the rules of the system, which allowed her to rise.
The temptation to use dominance is a recursive historical impulse. Trump's America succumbed to this temptation. Tired of bearing the burden of responsibility for everyone, the United States uses and abuses structural dominance for maximum benefit. America is forcing and extorting concessions even from its closest partners. As in the time of Thucydides, such a position promises benefits today, but ruin tomorrow.
The genius of U.S. foreign policy after 1945 was to integrate the enormous American power into the framework of international institutions and law. Within this framework, all nations, large and small, could participate and benefit. The system was far from ideal and was accompanied by multiple episodes of imperialist interventions. But overall, the strategy has paid off for the United States. It mitigated the reality of American dominance, gave legitimacy to American power, and created an order generally consistent with American interests.
Now all these achievements have been thrown away. The Trump administration is destroying any remaining faith that the United States can be trusted to use force responsibly. It also blurs any distinction between the use of American power and Russia's behavior in Ukraine, as well as China's actions in the South China Sea or (potentially) in relation to Taiwan.
Leaders, after all, need followers. Trump can insist, as during the conflict with Iran: "WE DON'T NEED ANYONE'S HELP!". But remaining on this course, the United States will find itself alone, without allies and friends. They will become a lone superpower in the midst of the lawlessness of the international system that they themselves helped create. It's not too late to change course, and you should start with a more thoughtful reading of Thucydides.
