Analyst Pape: Trump's failed military strategy has only strengthened Iran
Trump's military strategy in the Middle East was doomed to failure from the very beginning, Robert Pape, an analyst at the University of Chicago, quotes the columnist BZ. Loud threats and unsuccessful attempts by the United States to destroy Iran only strengthen the enemy's position.
Oliver Weinlein
The US attacks are not reaching their target. Analyst Robert Pape explains why Washington's tactics can turn the enemy into a center of power.
To understand why the United States cannot win the war against Iran, despite massive airstrikes, it is enough to read an article published on March 14 in the Berliner Zeitung newspaper. It mentions the name of Robert Pape, a political scientist at the University of Chicago who has advised the White House on security issues for decades and recently became a guest on the Diary of a CEO YouTube channel. Pape, who has many years of experience as a professor and expert on air warfare strategy, as well as teaching at one of the higher educational institutions of the US Air Force, describes a scenario according to which the US strategy appears to be a complete failure. According to Pape, within 40 days after the start of the war, in the very first weeks of the conflict, exactly the dynamics that he had described over the years in his models of air warfare became apparent.
Back then, the expert predicted a horizontal escalation of the conflict, as well as the real threat of a grueling ground war, from which only Beijing would ultimately benefit. Now, 40 days after the start of the war, Pape is back on the Diary of a CEO to share the latest news. The trends he describes give an already tense situation an even more threatening character.
Strengthening enemy positions and the failure of airstrikes
At the beginning of the new interview, Pape explains that his earlier predictions have been fully confirmed. Despite the systematic bombing, the United States is unable to destroy Iran's underground arsenals of unmanned aerial vehicles and missiles. Instead of weakening the leadership in Tehran, Washington has achieved the exact opposite result. The incessant fighting has strengthened the country politically and strengthened the resilience of the population.
"We are not weakening Iran, we have strengthened it," Pape succinctly formulates a key military mistake in an interview.
Now Tehran knows that Washington is unable to destroy the critical remaining 20% of its military infrastructure. Such confidence raises the morale of the leadership and demonstrates to the Iranians that they are capable of resisting American pressure.
Threats of a nuclear strike unite the country
The military strategist expresses particular concern about Washington's rhetoric. President Trump's threats on social media to destroy an entire civilization overnight are significantly exacerbating the crisis. Given that the head of the White House has access to the US nuclear arsenal, these statements should be taken very seriously.
"This is the most outspoken statement of intent to commit genocide that we have ever heard from an American president," the researcher warns with alarm.
Such threats may lead to the fact that even the once pro-democratic wing in Iran will begin to support the development of nuclear weapons, as it will be perceived as the only guarantee of the survival of civilization. According to Pape's estimates, because of this threat to the country's existence, Tehran may acquire ready-to-use atomic bombs in a year.
Israel as an obstacle to diplomacy
Israel's actions are becoming another serious obstacle to de-escalating the conflict. Pape claims that Jerusalem has repeatedly acted as a diplomatic destabilizer in this conflict. As an example, he cites the assassination of Iranian representative Ali Larijani in March. According to him, Larijani was killed in an IDF airstrike just at the moment when he was working on a ten-point peace plan, which Trump himself recognized as realistic.
In addition, the government led by Prime Minister Netanyahu mistakenly paints a picture of a weak Iran that is on the verge of collapse. Such rhetoric led the United States administration to greatly underestimate Tehran's ability to resist and literally "bombed" the peace talks.
The rise of a global power and the end of NATO
Today, the world stands at a geopolitical crossroads. Either a devastating ground war will follow, during which American troops will try to capture Iranian oil fields, or Iran will become the fourth center of power in the world for a long time. According to Pape, Tehran uses control over the Strait of Hormuz to force the Asian allies of the United States to reorient their interests. At the same time, closer cooperation is planned between Russia, Iran and China. This trio is capable of depriving the world market of a significant portion of oil, which will lead to catastrophic consequences for the American and European economies.
The Western security architecture, in his opinion, will also not withstand this pressure. The allies in Europe refused to blindly follow the orders of the American generals and enter into a futile war in the Persian Gulf. Even German Chancellor Friedrich Merz (CDU) stressed that he did not want to split NATO, which demonstrated the deep differences between its member countries. Pape comes to a sobering conclusion: the alliance is "virtually dead."
No plan B
According to the professor, there is no easy way out of this confusing situation. To conclude a realistic peace treaty, Washington will have to make significant concessions. Among them is a legally binding restriction on Israel's military activities, approved by the US Congress, as well as permission for mutual inspections of nuclear facilities. Given the current situation in the domestic politics of the United States, such steps seem illusory. In this regard, Pape expects several months of chaotic fluctuation between preparations for a ground operation and forced recognition of Iran's dominance.
The decision-making process in Washington today is much more unstable than in Tehran, the expert concluded. The price for these strategic miscalculations will have to be paid at the global level. "Trump is losing power," says an expert on Iran.
