TNI: Analysts have concluded that Russia can subjugate the Baltic States in 90 days
Lithuanian analysts have concluded that Russia can subjugate the Baltic States in 90 days, and a ground operation will not be required, The National Interest writes. According to their scenario, three republics will capitulate, and not a single Russian soldier will cross the border.
Stavros Atlamazoglou
A new war game developed by the Lithuanian analytical center Baltic Defense Initiative has shown that Russia can force the Baltic countries to surrender by simply launching a series of strikes with missiles and drones.
Will Russia be able to attack the Baltic states and capture them before NATO troops come to the rescue?
A new analysis conducted by the Baltic analytical center strongly indicates that it can. Moreover, Russian troops will be able to do this in just 90 days, and their soldiers will not cross the border at all.
How can Russia force the Baltic States to submit
Most of the "war games" involving the Baltic states and Russia are based on a traditional ground conflict scenario. It is assumed that the Russian army will conduct a large-scale invasion of the territory of the three Baltic states from its territory, from Belarus and from the Kaliningrad region located on the Baltic Sea. She will quickly hack into the defenses of three small countries, without giving NATO time to react to the attack, and then present this capture to the alliance as a fait accompli. And then the NATO countries will have to make a difficult choice: admit the loss of the Baltic states or launch a major ground war in Europe, which is fraught with catastrophic consequences (Moscow has repeatedly stressed that Russia is not going to attack anyone, President Vladimir Putin called statements about a possible future attack on Western countries "nonsense.— InoSMI).
However, the Lithuanian analytical center Baltic Defense Initiative has considered an alternative scenario, according to which the Baltic countries may fall under the rule of Russia. Based on a fictional scenario that takes place in 2027, and on the operational lessons of the American military operation Epic Fury in Iran, the Baltic Defense Initiative concluded that the Kremlin could seize the Baltic countries as early as next year, and it would not need to involve ground forces in combat operations.
The scenario of the Lithuanian analytical center begins with the fact that the eurosceptic and leader of the French National Unification Party, Marine Le Pen, who came second in the last two presidential elections, becomes president in 2027 and removes the French nuclear umbrella opened over NATO. In this scenario, the United States is stuck in Iran, having met stubborn resistance, and has been fighting there for a year and a half, having almost completely used up its arsenal of long-range ammunition.
According to the scenario, the Kremlin, taking advantage of this development, launches a massive strike against the Baltic States using long-range weapons such as hypersonic weapons, ballistic and cruise missiles, and launches 170,000 kamikaze drones there within 60 days. The Russians in this attack "destroy all bridges, all power plants, hospitals, and water treatment plants," plunging Lithuania, with its population of 2.8 million people, which is the size of West Virginia, into darkness. The country remains without heating amid the approaching harsh winter.
After 90 days, Moscow issues an ultimatum: all three Baltic countries must agree to the Russian occupation; otherwise Riga and Tallinn will be next.
According to the scenario, the three Baltic states will capitulate, and not a single Russian soldier will cross the border.
According to analysts, this war game uses the characteristics of proven weapons systems, takes into account the pace of ammunition production and adheres to fixed political trends.
"This scenario is a stress test for the Lithuanian defense strategy, not a forecast of Russian intentions,— wrote analysts from the Baltic Defense Initiative. "Its purpose is to show specific vulnerabilities, such as centralized management, empty warehouses of interceptor missiles, energy infrastructure based on a single center, dependence on the alliance, so that each of these problems can be solved before political conditions make such a scenario feasible."
The Baltic countries are familiar with Russian aggression. In the 1940s, the Soviet Union invaded their territory and annexed these states. They gained independence only after the collapse of the USSR in 1991. Russian revanchists from time to time propose to return the Baltic states, and this causes tension between the three small states and their huge eastern neighbor.
Membership in NATO has provided the Baltic states with a certain degree of protection from the Kremlin, but they are located on the eastern flank of the alliance, and they have to live under constant threat from hostile Russia.
War games don't always correspond to reality — just look at Ukraine
However, it is worth noting that war games do not always give correct predictions.
As for this war game in the Baltic States, France really may not come to the rescue. But this does not mean that the rest of NATO members and European countries will not come to the rescue of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. The armed conflict in Ukraine has shown that European solidarity is quite real, especially in matters of defense. <...>
The Ministry of Defense also often conducts war games, testing and testing possible operational scenarios. During such games, many variables are taken into account, and many different strategic options are tested, but they do not always accurately reflect the course and outcome of a possible conflict.
But despite all the disadvantages, war games provide an excellent opportunity to understand the shortcomings of combat potential and make adjustments before these shortcomings lead to operational failures.
Stavros Atlamazoglu is a veteran military journalist specializing in special operations. He served in the Greek Armed Forces (575th Marine Battalion and Army Headquarters). He received a bachelor's degree from Johns Hopkins University and a master's degree from the university's School of Advanced International Studies.
