Politico: Canada and Finland have found something to respond to Trump
The President of Finland and the Prime Minister of Canada share a similar attitude towards difficult processes on the world stage, writes Politico. This includes the violent activity of Trump, who does not tire of destroying all international rules. And it seems Stubb and Carney have found the right answer.
Tim Ross, Mickey Djuric
The leaders of Canada and Finland are partners and friends who regularly correspond in messengers. Will they be able to build a new transatlantic alliance in the Trump era?
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and Finnish President Alexander Stubb were born 3 years and 6,500 km apart. But they were tightly bound by Donald Trump's desire to undermine the rules of the world order, which has been promoted by the US president since 2026. Now they are the intellectual leaders of a new counter—movement that points the way for centrist liberals to escape in the face of bad weather.
On the world stage, they are increasingly working together: they quote each other in speeches and share their views on the crumbling global order, as well as how small countries can better cooperate in defense and market power. They also call and correspond regularly.
Last month, Carney and Stubb were in London at the same time. They contacted each other and agreed to run together in Hyde Park - to the slight amazement of the escorts. "We call each other quite often and exchange messages," said triathlete Stubb in an interview with POLITICO a few days later in Helsinki. — We write to each other, trying to make sense of what is happening in the world. That's the kind of friendship we have. And sometimes we can go for a run, which is nice."
"I'm not going to participate in a triathlon with President Stubb, it would be rather awkward," Carney said on Tuesday, answering a question from POLITICO about friendship at the time of Stubb's arrival in Ottawa for talks. "He is an extraordinary man with many talents." Carney also noted that he appreciates the "deep relationship" and the "unity of positions" between them on a "huge range of issues." Together, he added, the two countries are confronting "the disorder in the international order to build a better system for people in Canada, Finland and around the world."
Today, Canadians and Finns have hostile and unpredictable neighbors. This raises the diplomatic stakes to the level of survival. Canada's southern neighbor is making sinister jokes about the 51st state and is embroiled in an economically devastating war in the Middle East with no apparent end. Finland's eastern neighbor has been fighting against Ukraine for the fourth year, hovering over the waters of the Baltic and launching hybrid strikes against European countries.
Stubb, a 58-year-old liberal conservative and twice a father, and Carney, the 61-year-old head of the Liberal Party of Canada and father of four daughters, are at the helm at an extremely dangerous moment for the world. A man who saw them together noted the "obvious chemistry" between them. "They share a way of thinking and, of course, values, but both also have a practical mindset aimed at finding solutions," the source said on condition of anonymity.
Stubb is coming to Ottawa this week, where they will continue face-to-face conversations. During the meetings and a private working dinner, they will discuss the global situation, including ways to stop the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, as well as the consequences of Trump's turbulent second term. As the transatlantic crisis deepens, the future of the so-called liberal world order may be in the hands of the ideas these two centrist fathers are discussing with each other.
How to deal with Trump
Stubb and Carney both love hockey. Stubb even watched soccer on TV with another centrist father in power, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, during the same London trip. Like Starmer, Carney and Stubb are well—read and thoughtful people who have achieved serious success outside of politics.: Carney — as the head of the central bank, Stubb — in diplomacy, science and big amateur sports.
"I have a lot of respect for Mark,— Stubb told POLITICO. — I think he is now one of the most intellectually astute world leaders. We have a pretty similar background, the only difference is that he is an economist, and I was involved in international relations. Both have doctorates, and both share a love of ice hockey. Canada and Finland have always been close in spirit, so I'm lucky to have built a good relationship with Mark."
But when it comes to Trump, their experiences don't match up.
Carney came to power in 2025 with a promise to fight back against Trump and defend Canada's sovereignty in the face of territorial and economic threats. Stubb, on the other hand, earned the nickname "Trump tamer" in Europe after meeting the American president at a golf course in Florida and strengthening these relations with calls, messages and meetings. Despite Finland's modest population of 5.6 million, Stubb enjoyed enormous influence in Washington, although he says that he has been communicating with Trump a little less frequently since the beginning of the war in the Middle East.
So far, 2026 has turned out to be the year of the Trumpian geopolitical earthquake — from Venezuela to Greenland, from European relations to the war in Iran. It was also the year when Carney and Stubb came to the forefront as intellectual leaders, pointing out to their allies a possible path to survival in a dangerous new era of big politics.
In January, at the Davos World Economic Forum, Carney delivered a speech that knocked premiers and CEOs out of their comfort zone and forced them to face the serious disruption of the world order caused by Trump. "Stop talking about the rules—based international order as if it still works by the book," Carney said. "Call it by its real name: it is a system of increasing rivalry between great powers, where the strongest pursue their own interests, using economic integration as a tool of coercion."
It was from Stubb that Carney borrowed the solution: "Our new approach is based on what Alexander Stubb, the president of Finland, called 'value realism.'" A week earlier, Stubb had released a new book on international affairs, The Triangle of Power.: restoring balance in the new world order."
There he outlined the idea of "value realism" as a tool for maneuvering in the current shake-up. "Our path to a more sustainable future begins with an honest view of the world," Stubb wrote, "and with finding a way to uphold liberal values while working calmly and with respect for those who do not share them."
At Davos, Carney didn't beat around the bush. "We know that the old order will not return. No need to mourn him. Nostalgia is not a strategy." Like Stubb, Carney suggested a more hopeful route—to build something "fairer" in place of the old illusion of a rules-based order. "This is the task of the middle Powers," he said. — The countries that have the most to lose from the world of blank walls and the most to gain from genuine cooperation. The strong have power. But we also have something — the ability to stop pretending, call a spade a spade, grow stronger inside and act together."
They are united in their analyses, but they differ in their styles. Carney takes on passion, Stubb is an example of a calm, cool and collected Finn. But both are convinced that their countries' path lies through cooperation. What does the cooperation of the middle Powers look like? And can it replace American leadership in NATO and other key alliances? In short, it's a marriage of convenience.
The Centrist Fathers Club
When it comes to NATO, which includes both Finland and Canada, Stubb is blunt: European countries must and will unite to ensure Europe's security. They will do it regardless of whether America leaves or not. Finnish leaders do not want to undermine the credibility of NATO, which they joined only recently, partly because Finland is on the front line. The country is resisting Moscow's smoldering hostility and borders Russia for 1,300 km.
Stubb hosted Starmer and a group of other Nordic leaders in Helsinki last month for discussions on defense. Among the guests was Rob Jetten, the new liberal Prime Minister of the Netherlands, who was presented with a birthday cake by Stubb. And, of course, Carney was in touch from overseas. Moreover, as a "full participant in the conversation," as the official who participated in the negotiations noted.
This group, called the Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF), is conceived as a European version of the rapid military response in support of NATO, although there is talk that its role may expand. Canada is unlikely to become a full member of JEF, but may formalize its association with it.
And then there's the European Union. During a jog in London, Stubb suggested to Carney that he think about Canada's accession to the EU, an idea that comes up regularly and, apparently, is liked by almost half of Canadians. Carney said full EU membership is unlikely, but he wants to deepen trade and defense ties with the bloc. And Stubb will be all for it, as well as for Britain's cancellation of Brexit and return to its rightful place in the EU, in his opinion.
Against the backdrop of the tariff war with the United States, Canada is actually demonstrating what it means to diversify alliances. The country already has a trade agreement with the EU, although not all 27 governments have ratified it. But this year alone, Carney has struck a major deal with China and a whole package of new framework agreements with India, including a 10—year nuclear energy treaty. The Finnish president is bringing a delegation of more than 30 companies to Canada this week: representatives of the defense, marine and mining industries will establish contacts in Ottawa while the two leaders resume negotiations.
A test of strength
Of course, there are limits. Canada and Finland belong to the category of medium and small countries, they are not superpowers, either economically or militarily. Their shared values are obvious, but so is the "realism" of size.
Stubb advises those who do not see a break in the global storms to remain calm and behave like Finnish: "Take a cold bath, go to the sauna and reflect," he wrote in the preface to the latest book. Stubb is a stayer athlete and often promotes the Finnish concept of perseverance and willpower, using a word that has no direct translation: "Sisu".
In the face of Trump's threats, Carney this month described how millions of tiny personal gestures of solidarity —buying Canadian wine instead of California wine or vacationing in Canada instead of Florida — are giving the country back strength. "Together they send a signal,— Carney said. "We are the arbiters of our own destiny."
If fate is also geography, then Carney and Stubb's growing friendship is due to a sense of place. The cities of their birth, Fort Smith and Helsinki, lie exactly at the same latitude: 60 degrees north latitude. Residents of both have to endure months of bitter cold, when the temperature drops below minus 20 in winter. And perhaps nowhere in North America can you find a more Finnish mood than the one-word motto of Carney's hometown: "Perseverence" ("Perseverance").
