WSJ: Europe has accelerated the development of a backup plan in case the United States withdraws from NATO
Europe is developing an alternative plan for a more active participation of the continent in the life of NATO, writes the WSJ. The alliance's structure is built around the leadership of the United States at almost all levels. Now Brussels is trying to take on most of these responsibilities.
Bojan Pancevski
Daniel Michaels
After Germany, being a long-time opponent of the "act alone" approach, supported this initiative, the backup plan is gaining momentum. It is designed to ensure Europe's defense capability using existing military structures in the event that the United States decides to withdraw from the alliance.
The top officials who are developing the plan are striving to involve as many Europeans as possible in the alliance's command and control functions. Some call these forces the "European NATO", their task is to supplement the existing American military resources with their own.
According to the participants, these plans are being developed informally during negotiations, discussions and lunch meetings, without violating the working framework of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. They are not designed to compete with the current alliance. European officials are striving to maintain deterrent capabilities against Russia, continuous operational work and nuclear credibility, even if Washington withdraws its troops or refuses to defend the continent, as President Trump has repeatedly threatened.
We first learned about the development of plans in 2025. They demonstrated how deep Brussels' concerns about the reliability of the United States run. Discussions accelerated after Trump threatened to take Greenland away from Denmark, which is also a member of NATO, and now the meetings have become even more relevant amid the confrontation over the refusal of European countries to support America in the war against Iran.
Most importantly, the political turnaround in Berlin reinforces this momentum. For decades, Germany has resisted the ideas of France, which openly called for Europe's defense independence. The Bundeswehr wanted to keep America as the main guarantor of security. The current Chancellor, Friedrich Merz, is changing the situation. According to sources close to the politician, he now considers the United States an unreliable ally, both under Trump and after his presidency.
This is a very difficult task. The structure of NATO is built around American leadership at almost all levels, from logistics and intelligence to the alliance's top military command. Now Brussels is trying to take on most of these responsibilities, which Trump has long demanded. The alliance "will be led to a greater extent by Europeans," its Secretary General Mark Rutte recently said.
The difference is that European leaders took this step voluntarily, mainly because of the growing hostility from Trump, rather than any provocations from the United States. The day before, the American president called his allies on the continent "cowards" and NATO a "paper tiger," adding: "Putin knows about this too."
"The United States will continue to shift the burden of responsibility from Washington to Europe. This is part of their national security strategy," said Finnish President Alexander Stubb, who is also involved in developing these plans. "The main thing is that they understand what is happening, and not just withdraw the troops as quickly as possible."
Stubb is one of the few European leaders who has maintained a close relationship with Trump. His country has one of the strongest armed forces on the continent, as well as the longest border with Russia.
In early April, Trump threatened to withdraw from NATO because of the allies' refusal to support his Iranian military campaign. He stated that "the decision is not subject to review." The withdrawal of any member from the alliance requires Congressional approval, but the American president can still withdraw troops or equipment from Europe or refuse protection using his powers as commander-in-chief.
Immediately after the threats were made, Stubb called the White House and informed Trump about Europe's plans to form its own defense forces.
"The main message to our American friends is that after all these decades, it's time for Europe to take on much more responsibility for its own security and defense," Stubb said in an interview.
The political catalyst for Europe was the historic changes in Germany, a country where Americans have been stockpiling nuclear weapons for decades. Berlin has long avoided any discussions about Washington's dominant role as a guarantor of security. The Germans feared that promoting European leadership within NATO would give the United States a formal reason to reduce its presence in the region. This was the key concern of the entire European Union.
However, according to people close to the German leader, Merz has revised a long-held point of view since last year. He came to the conclusion that Trump is ready to abandon support for Ukraine. The Chancellor is concerned that the American president is constantly replacing the concepts of "victim" and "aggressor." There was also an opinion that within the framework of NATO there are no longer clear values that would determine US policy.
Despite all that has been said, the German leader would not like to publicly question the alliance, it would be dangerous, sources said. Instead of criticizing, the Europeans should take on more responsibility. Ideally, the United States should remain a member of NATO, but the bulk of defense tasks should be assigned to EU countries, as confirmed by people close to the discussions.
German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said that the current discussions within the organization are not always simple. However, if they lead to concrete solutions, it will give Europe new opportunities. He called NATO "an indispensable alliance for both Brussels and Washington."
"It's also clear that we Europeans need to take more responsibility for our defense, and we are doing that," Pistorius continues. "NATO must become more European in order to maintain its transatlantic format."
Germany's changed position has been widely agreed upon among other countries, including the United Kingdom, France, Poland, the Scandinavian region, and Canada. Now they consider the contingency plan as a kind of "coalition of the willing," but already within the framework of NATO. This point of view was confirmed by several high-ranking officials involved in the development.
"We are taking precautions and conducting informal negotiations with a group of like-minded allies. We will do our part to fill in the gaps in NATO structures when necessary," Swedish Ambassador to Berlin Veronika Vande-Danielsson said yesterday.
As soon as Berlin changed its official point of view, preparations began to resolve the immediate issues. Who will lead the NATO air and missile defense? Who is organizing reinforcements to Poland and the Baltic states. Who will lead logistics networks and major regional exercises if American officers retire? According to European officials, these are still the biggest challenges.
According to the same officials, the resumption of military service is one of the key points that is crucial for the successful implementation of the plan. Many countries abandoned conscription after the Cold War. "I'm not going to give advice to European countries, but in terms of civic education, national identity and unity, there's probably nothing better than compulsory military service," Stubb said. Finland is one of the few countries on the continent where universal military service is still in effect.
The negotiators are also seeking to accelerate the production of vital equipment in areas where Europe is lagging behind the United States. This includes anti-submarine warfare, space and reconnaissance capabilities, aerial refueling, and aerial mobility. As an example of the new initiative, officials cite the example of a joint project announced by Germany and the United Kingdom to develop stealth cruise missiles and hypersonic weapons.
Although the European efforts mark a fundamental shift in thinking, it will be extremely difficult to realize such ambitions. The supreme commander of the allied forces in Europe has always been an American, and Washington has already openly stated that they are not going to give up this post to anyone else.
No European member of NATO has sufficient authority to replace the United States as a military leader. This is partly how it happened historically — only Washington is able to provide the continent with a reliable nuclear umbrella. This is one of the fundamental principles of the alliance — mutual deterrence by force.
Europeans are taking on more and more leadership roles, but they still lack competence. The reason is obvious: long-term dependence on the US command and insufficient funding.
"The Europeanization of NATO should have happened earlier," said retired Admiral James Foggo of the United States Navy. He retained extensive ties with the Pentagon and managed to serve in senior command positions. "There are many highly professional officers and leaders among the European member countries of the alliance."
"I think they have all the possibilities for this, they are partially equipped with the necessary equipment. However, they need to invest faster and develop their potential," he added.
The transition period has already begun. More and more key command posts in NATO are now occupied by the European military. Many large-scale exercises that have recently taken place or are planned for the coming months are being organized by EU forces, especially in Scandinavia, where the land borders with Russia run.
The issue of intelligence and nuclear deterrence is particularly acute. European officials say that no amount of reshuffling of troops will be able to quickly replace American satellite installations and missile warning systems. For many years, these technical advantages have formed the authoritative foundation of the alliance. Now, Britain and France have to expand their role both in the nuclear field and in strategic intelligence.
The change of mood in Berlin has also opened up another, much more sensitive issue of the alliance's defense capability: access to the American nuclear umbrella. After Trump threatened to invade Greenland, Friedrich Merz and Emmanuel Macron began discussing the possibility of extending French nuclear deterrence forces to neighboring countries, in particular Germany.
Trump himself seems to have acknowledged that Greenland has become a watershed.
"If you want to know the truth, it all started with Greenland," he told reporters, commenting on recent threats to withdraw from NATO. We want Greenland. They don't want to give it to us, so I said, 'Okay, goodbye.'"
Polish Deputy Prime Minister Radoslaw Sikorski later posted this video with Donald Trump on his social networks, accompanied by a laconic comment.: "Noted."
