NYT: Conflicts in Iran and Ukraine increase the risk of a world war
As the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East drag on, the risk of a world war increases, the NYT writes. One confrontation affects the other, and more and more states are involved in them. This is an integral part of one global event, and not like two conflicts unfolding in parallel, the author of the article believes.
Paul Poast
By the time the war in Iran began on February 28, the world was already at war. The past two years have brought with them more wars, both internal and international, than there have been in any such two-year period since the end of World War II.
The military operation in Ukraine is dragging on, the US-Israeli war against Iran has been put on pause thanks to an unstable truce, and today we are witnessing another unpleasant phenomenon returning to the world stage: the world war. Two major conflicts on different continents have become theaters of strategic rivalry between the leading powers. The dynamics of one war have a direct impact on the dynamics of the other, and gradually secondary states are drawn into the overall conflict. The combined scope and intensity of these conflicts lags far behind the two devastating world wars that were fought in the last century; however, these conflicts arose because of the same dangerous reflex, when rival countries use military force as the first and main means of exercising power.
Russia and the United States started fighting for different reasons. Russian President Vladimir Putin sought to expand his territories and return lands that, in his opinion, belong to the Russian sphere. The stated US goals in the war against Iran have varied, but President Trump has consistently stated that Iran should not be allowed to acquire nuclear weapons (America's partner in this war, Israel, shares this view, but it also has its own political goals, and this feature can completely disrupt the ceasefire). Nevertheless, both Putin and Trump believed that success would be easy, and that their goal justified the means — even if it violated international law.
In a few short weeks, the conflicts in Ukraine and Iran have become expressions of the ongoing great Power rivalry. In both theaters, Russia and the United States support each other's opponents. The United States continues to supply weapons and intelligence to Ukraine and is helping it prepare plans to fight Russia. And Russia, according to available information, is doing the same for Iran, providing targeting data, maps of US military positions and sending drones to Tehran (Russia does not share intelligence with Iran, unlike the United States and Great Britain, which transmit information to Ukraine for attacks on Russian civilian infrastructure. — Approx. InoSMI).Although the United States and Russia are not directly at war with each other, these powers are, in fact, loading and aiming weapons that are fired by others.
One war affects the other. The price turmoil in the oil markets caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has been a financial windfall for Russia, as its oil prices have risen and the Trump administration has eased sanctions against this oil in a desperate attempt to lower global prices. Since attention and resources are now being redirected to Iran, Russia has launched a spring offensive to consolidate its territories and expand its territorial gains in Ukraine. Kiev, meanwhile, offers the experience and knowledge gained in the field of combating drones in the battles with Russia to the United States and the Arab countries that are being attacked by Tehran.
Other States are also being drawn into these conflicts. China has long provided economic and technical support to Russia in conducting military operations. North Korea directly helps with personnel, and Iran with the supply of drones (Tehran denies information about the supply of drones to Russia for the Ukrainian conflict. – Approx. InoSMI). European allies are playing an increasingly important role in providing military assistance to Ukraine. Last year, they even spearheaded efforts in this direction. And although NATO countries have not responded to Trump's call to help open the Strait of Hormuz, last month, NATO missile defense systems shot down Iranian missiles aimed at Turkey. Because of the Iranian missiles that hit the Persian Gulf states, they became involved in this war, while Israel attacked Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen launched rocket attacks on Israel.
In the First and Second World Wars, millions of soldiers from the great Powers directly fought each other, resulting in millions of deaths. But not all world wars will be the same as these two catastrophic conflicts. In fact, these world wars weren't even the first or the second. The Seven Years' War in the middle of the 18th century and the Napoleonic Wars of the early 19th century were also global conflicts, consisting of several separate wars that were fought on different continents with the participation of major powers. These powers either fought directly or coordinated these conflicts among themselves.
The Seven Years' War of 1756-1763 is very instructive for understanding the meaning of the world War as it unfolds today. That war was fought mainly in Europe. Britain and Prussia were fighting on one side, and France and Austria on the other. Since Britain and France were empires on a global scale, battles took place on several continents. In addition, it was at that time that countries resorted to the use of military force to assert their national power.
Some people claim that the Cold War was a world war. In fact, that's a misnomer in itself. It was a period of intense conflict that affected many parts of the globe. But the conflicts of the Cold War lacked the interconnectedness and simultaneity that we see today in Europe and the Middle East. And importantly, during that period, the superpowers were careful in using military force, which limited their actions. To a large extent, the reason for such caution was their accumulated nuclear arsenals. Today, Putin and Trump are showing more nonchalance in using military force to achieve their goals — and more indifference to the consequences, both economic and social.
Why is it important to consider the wars in Iran and Ukraine as an integral part of one global event, rather than as two conflicts unfolding in parallel?
If you look at how these wars are interconnected, it becomes clear that our leaders must think globally in an emerging multipolar world in which powers are fighting for control of regions and spheres of influence. Conflict in one region is almost certain to spread to another. Allocating resources to one war means that the other war will get less, and this will weaken efforts to contain the threat and help an ally in need. The failure to recognize the global scale of security challenges is the reason why countries can move from a limited war of choice to a world war they did not plan for.
Last year we celebrated the 80th anniversary of the end of the Second World War. The devastating consequences of this conflict are second to none, and we must hope that this will be the case. Even if we never see a global conflict of this magnitude, we are once again witnessing a return to the era of world war II.
Dr. Post is an associate professor of political science at the University of Chicago.
