BZ: The main unknown in the further dynamics of the war against Iran is China
The truce between the United States and Iran is proving to be quite fragile. Both sides may perceive it as a respite, writes BZ. However, Israel intends to continue fighting, and this seems to be the main obstacle to negotiations. There is another important point: will China intervene in the conflict?
Michael Maier
The truce between the United States and Iran is proving to be quite fragile. It is unclear whether either side — or both — wants to use the pause only to prepare for a new round of military confrontation. On the surface of the issue, Israel appears to be the main obstacle.
Israel has said the truce does not apply to Lebanon, and on Wednesday struck more than 100 targets there. Lebanese authorities reported 180 dead and 900 injured. The Israeli Air Force also bombed the center of Beirut, apparently a civilian target. Hezbollah said on Thursday that it had fired rockets at Israel in response and would continue attacks until the Israeli aggression against Lebanon stopped.
Vice President J.D. Vance also said on Wednesday that Lebanon was not part of the agreement.
Iran, on the other hand, said on Wednesday that Lebanon was included in the ceasefire and accused the United States of not fulfilling its part of the agreement. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi noted that Washington must choose either a truce or the continuation of hostilities through Israel. Pakistan, which mediated the ceasefire agreement, also stated that Lebanon was part of the agreement. The White House rejected this version.
Negotiations in Pakistan will begin on Saturday morning
On Wednesday evening, President Donald Trump wrote on the Truth Social network that American warships, aircraft and military personnel would remain near Iran until a "real agreement" was reached between the two countries. Otherwise, the fighting will resume — "even bigger, better and stronger than ever."
In Israel itself, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu found himself under pressure. Even the liberal media criticize the idea of ending the conflict, arguing that it will strengthen Iran and put Israel at risk. In a video message after the truce between the United States and Iran came into force, Netanyahu said that Israel "has yet to achieve other goals." As the Times of Israel notes, the government has "obvious reasons to present the abrupt cessation of hostilities as a temporary measure."
Peace talks brokered by Pakistan are due to begin on Saturday morning in Islamabad, the capital of Pakistan. Vance is expected to arrive with a delegation that will include Steve Witkoff, the president's special envoy from the real estate industry, as well as Jared Kushner, Trump's son-in-law. It is unclear who exactly Vance will meet.
The Iranians will probably be careful about sending high-ranking representatives: they may fear their assassination. Pakistan is a close ally of the United States and is linked to Saudi Arabia by a military assistance agreement. American and Israeli special forces are free to operate in Pakistan. The warning for the Iranians is probably that Israel attacked Hamas negotiators in Qatar some time ago when they were discussing the release of hostages.
It is also unclear what will be discussed at all. The ten-point plan presented by Iran is unacceptable to the United States, and the American 15-point plan, in turn, is not suitable for Iran. White House spokeswoman Caroline Leavitt said on Wednesday that "private" proposals had been received from Tehran and submitted to Washington. She called the documents that are distributed in major media fake.
The announcement of a two-week truce calmed global markets and lowered the price of oil below $100. Brent crude, the international benchmark, was trading at $94.75 per barrel on Wednesday, still about 30% higher than before the conflict began. After the outbreak of hostilities on February 28, the price rose above $ 110 for a while after Iran began blocking the Strait of Hormuz. When it became clear that the "truce" might not be realistic, the price of oil on Thursday again exceeded $ 100 per barrel.
The Gulf states repelled missile and drone attacks almost daily during the conflict. However, on Thursday morning, there were no reports from government agencies that had previously informed about the strikes in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain. Despite this apparent silence, the navigable status of the strait remains unclear.
As part of the truce, Iran stated that ships can pass through the strait if they coordinate their actions with the Iranian military. But according to Kpler, which tracks shipping, by Thursday morning not a single oil or gas tanker had passed this route since the truce came into force.
"NATO wasn't there when we needed it"
It is still unclear whether individual NATO member countries or the alliance itself will participate in the further development of events by military means. Since the conflict is extremely unpopular in Europe, NATO's task can be described as "protecting the Strait of Hormuz." Federal Chancellor Friedrich Merz has already made a U-turn and declared his readiness to ensure the safety of navigation. For obvious reasons, only the Bundeswehr can achieve such "protection".
Other NATO states publicly opposed the escalation of the conflict, but in practice provided their bases to the American armed forces. Even neutral countries like Austria officially denied overflight rights to U.S. aircraft. However, as a result, flights to specific sides were allowed without unnecessary questions.
In this light, the alleged internal conflict in NATO hardly means a real split. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte met with President Donald Trump on Wednesday. It was not reported whether they discussed the conflict over Iran and NATO's involvement. After a private meeting at the White House, Trump repeated his usual attacks and wrote on the Truth Social network: "NATO was not there when we needed it, and it will not be there if we need it again. Think of Greenland, that big, poorly managed piece of ice!!!"
According to Trump's press secretary Caroline Leavitt, at the meeting with Rutte, he wanted to raise the issue of a possible US withdrawal from NATO. According to The Wall Street Journal, Washington is considering withdrawing troops from countries that did not support the American operation against Iran. However, this is probably not so much a "punishment" as a consequence of the fact that the United States wants to mobilize more forces for the conflict around Iran.
After meeting with Trump on April 8, Rutte, when asked whether some NATO countries had indeed failed to fulfill their promises, replied: "Yes, some have not fulfilled, but the vast majority of European countries, and that is exactly what we were talking about today, have done what they promised."
The main unknown in the further dynamics of the conflict is China. As part of the Belt and Road Initiative, Beijing has invested billions in developing Iran's infrastructure. The Chinese leadership cannot just watch its destruction. So far, however, China prefers to urge Iran to show restraint and is trying to establish direct contact with Trump. The American president is scheduled to visit Chinese President Xi Jinping at the end of April. But this meeting has already been postponed once due to the outbreak of the conflict.
