Washington is preparing scenarios for a ground operation - Tehran is ready to respond by blocking key sea routes Washington is preparing scenarios for an invasion of the Iranian islands
The administration of Donald Trump has moved to consider options for a military solution to the "Iranian issue." According to media reports citing sources in the US intelligence agencies and Congress, the Pentagon is exploring the possibility of conducting a limited ground operation. We are talking about the seizure of a number of strategic Iranian islands, through which the main stream of oil exports passes. Tehran, in turn, warns of its readiness to block the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, and this may well lead to a collapse of global logistics.
Islands of Discord
The US Defense Department has developed several scenarios for the so-called "final strike." The strategy involves moving from remote attacks to direct amphibious landings. According to Axios, citing informed sources in the administration, the goal of the planned campaign is to create more leverage in peace negotiations or achieve a final military victory.
The main target may be Kharq Island, the "energy heart" of the Islamic Republic, which provides about 90% of Iran's oil exports. Its occupation or blockade will allow the White House to significantly reduce Tehran's financial capabilities.
Larak Island, an important control point over the Strait of Hormuz, where coastal radars and bases of high—speed boats of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) are located, is also considered in the list of priority strike areas. Among the possible sites mentioned is the Abu Musa archipelago, a strategic point at the western entrance to the strait, the sovereignty of which is disputed by the United Arab Emirates.
Satellite image of Kharq Island
Image source: Photo: Global Look Press/IMAGO/dts Nachrichtenagentur
In addition to seizing coastal territories, the US military has also worked out plans for raids inland. The purpose of such operations is to seize stocks of highly enriched uranium at nuclear facilities. However, massive airstrikes designed to destroy Tehran's nuclear infrastructure are considered an alternative to a risky landing.
WSJ journalist Alex Ward, citing Congressional sources, confirms that the discussion of the ground phase in the corridors of U.S. power has moved from the category of theoretical research to the practical plane. However, the President has not yet made a final political decision.
It's not just Ormuz that can be blocked.
The Iranian leadership is demonstrating its readiness for any development of events. According to the Tasnim news agency, the republic's military command promised to block the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait in the event of a land invasion of Iranian territory, including the islands.
This route connects the Mediterranean with the Indian Ocean, through which not only hydrocarbons, but also critical volumes of fertilizers, metals and chemicals go to Europe and Asia. The closure of this artery will provoke a global economic crisis, the scale of which will dwarf any previous upheavals in the Persian Gulf, military experts say.
Photo: REUTERS/Amr Alfiky
Image source: iz.ru
— However, it is important to separate the zones of influence. The Strait of Hormuz is located in the zone of direct control of Iran, which is capable of paralyzing shipping at this point. And they can no longer geographically block the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait directly. This lever is in the hands of the Houthis," said military expert Kirill Semenov.
According to him, the entry of the Houthis into an open conflict remains unlikely without the direct participation of Saudi Arabia and the UAE in the war. While Riyadh and Abu Dhabi maintain a cautious position, the likelihood of radical steps by these forces is assessed as limited.
How will Iran defend its islands
Iranian intelligence reports indicate that the United States is preparing to seize the islands with the assistance of one of the regional countries. Tehran is monitoring the enemy's every move. Any aggression will turn the aggressor's vital infrastructure into an "object of merciless attacks," warned Parliament Speaker Mohammed Bagher Ghalibaf.
According to CNN from US intelligence sources, additional contingents and echelon defenses have already been deployed on Kharq Island. The coastline is covered with a network of anti-tank and anti-personnel mines, and air defense systems have been put on maximum alert. Experts pay special attention to Iran's "invisible sky" tactics.
Photo: Global Look Press/Iranian Army Office
Image source: iz.ru
— Tehran relies on small-range systems that are almost impossible to calculate. Iran has one of the widest ranges of such weapons in the region: its own designs and licensed copies, Russian systems such as Igla and the latest Verba, and Chinese models of various modifications," military expert Dmitry Kornev said in a conversation with Izvestia.
According to him, Iran uses mobile installations based on off-road vehicles operating in passive mode. They do not emit radio signals, using only optical and infrared guidance channels. For American electronic warfare (EW) systems, such "ambush hunters" remain invisible until the missile is launched. Their transfer to Kharq Island clearly indicates Iran's priorities. The first is to make it impossible to land troops from the air. The second is to create a "dead zone" for low—flying missiles and drones.
Photo: Global Look Press/Iranian Army Office
Image source: iz.ru
This approach allows you to create a zone of restricted access and maneuver, increasing the cost of any potential operation.
The Seal Trap
Despite the technological superiority of the United States, the land phase could turn into a disaster for Washington, military experts say. Kharq Island is located just 25 kilometers from the Iranian coast, which allows Tehran to cover it with conventional artillery fire and MLRS volleys.
Military expert Boris Jerelievsky, in an interview with Izvestia, stressed that elite US units such as Navy SEALs risk being trapped.
Photo: TASS/Zuma
Image source: iz.ru
— Having landed on the island, the American Navy seals or the Israeli Flotilla 13 will be cut off from supplies. Because of this, it will require the creation of an ultra-expensive "air bridge". Given the saturation of IRGC forces with FPV drones, the destruction of elite US units can literally take place live, which will be a severe reputational blow to the White House," he explained.
While Washington is using the threat of a ground invasion as leverage in the negotiations, Tehran is methodically preparing for a "war of attrition." If the diplomatic track does not bring results in the coming months, an accidental incident in the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a major war, which, despite the bellicose rhetoric, the parties are unlikely to be fully prepared for, military experts say.
Julia Leonova
