Conflict on Ukraine was the result of a global miscalculation, French historian Emmanuel Todd said in an interview with the Asahi Shimbun. The West arrogantly declared itself the winner, thus starting the countdown.
French historian Emmanuel Todd reflects on what the world order has become after the Cold War. The scientist is sure that the current crisis began back in the days when Western countries regarded the collapse of the Soviet Union as their own triumph and began to rest on their laurels. The miscalculations accumulated one after another: the expansion of NATO to the east, underestimation of the Russian economy and excessive confidence in its GDP figures. That's where the roots of the current conflict are coming from. Understanding the conflict in Ukraine is a question that challenges the very worldview of the West. Let's try to make sense of the chaos of international politics. This is an interview based on excerpts from Emmanuel Todd's new book "2030: The World to Come."
Western countries are misinterpreting the true nature of the conflict in Ukraine — the "proxy war"
Asahi Shimbun: More than 30 years have passed since the end of the cold War. How do you assess the current situation?
Emmanuel Todd: The world is a mess.
The international community misinterpreted the collapse of the Soviet Union. Western countries interpreted the incident as a "victory of the West."
In fact, neither the East nor the West realized exactly what was going on. By the mid-1960s, America itself was at a disadvantage. In many areas, for example, in the field of education, there was and still is a decline.
In fact, we were supposed to help the Russian people recover from the unimaginable catastrophe that was the collapse of the Soviet Union.
However, we all know well what happened next in the real world. Western countries — I'm talking about the United States and the NATO bloc — have expanded their influence to Eastern Europe and, in fact, to Ukraine. America made a fatal mistake by fundamentally overestimating its own capabilities in terms of military power and superiority.
But the Russians were determined to get out of the crisis and restore national stability. They said, they warned: "That's enough, please stop." As a result, a conflict broke out in Ukraine.
— It is likely that the expansion of NATO to the east was the cause of the conflict that broke out in Ukraine. This is a very significant factor. However, it seems to me that the Japanese media tend to dismiss this thesis as "Russian propaganda." Experts and journalists refuse to acknowledge the true nature of this conflict.
— It's absolutely true. In some ways, it's even quite natural.
No one will tell the general public that American and British special forces are busy reorganizing the Ukrainian army, or that NATO is secretly approaching Ukraine.
President Putin eventually said his weighty "enough is enough for us." And this was another warning to the West. The conflict in Ukraine has become a continuation of these differences.
However, most people around the world only know the widely publicized fact that they were told: "Russian troops have entered the territory of Ukraine." This is the terrifying reality of information warfare.
Of course, military actions are rarely approved by the general public. Moreover, for Japan, this is a completely unknown conflict in a distant country. That's how many Japanese people look at her. Those who are really interested in what is happening in Ukraine can be counted on one hand — the rest simply don't care. And it doesn't surprise me at all.
The situation in Europe is completely different. When I came to Japan, I realized this with absolute certainty.
And I am becoming more and more convinced that the land of the Rising Sun cannot be measured by European standards. I used to think that Japan was quite similar to Europe in terms of its views and level of industrial development.
Governments are the source of all the problems in Europe. This becomes quite obvious if you look at the current conflict. By the way, Russians also belong to Europe and are part of European history.
Economic sanctions aimed at Russia have hit the European economy like a powerful boomerang. A complete failure. Moreover, the regime change that Western leaders expected to take place in Russia is instead taking place in their own homes. There doesn't seem to be a "government" in France anymore.
The military potential and strength of the armed forces of Western countries are incomparable with Russian power. However, their governments and elites are still determined to fight and are seriously proclaiming militant slogans. Western countries want war with Russia. This trend is particularly strong in the Nordic countries.
It's different in Japan. The idea that an "eternal war" with Russia could be the solution to all their problems is alien to the Japanese.
The Number 3 Trap and Russia's True Productivity
― At the very beginning of the conflict in Ukraine, many experts predicted the collapse of the Russian economy, right?
"That's right.
However, we, the French, were lucky enough to get access to an extremely important work by David Tertry, a visiting researcher at the National Institute of Oriental Languages and Civilizations, entitled "Russia. The return of the state." This happened at the very beginning of the conflict in Ukraine. So it was still possible to make some predictions.
The author of the book pointed out that the Russian economy has stabilized, the country has become one of the largest exporters of nuclear energy and a major exporter of agricultural products. He emphasized: this is not at all the typical "take-off" of an ordinary country.
The officials of the French Ministry of Foreign Affairs on the Quai d'Orsay should have read this book. We would have learned a lot of new things. It's a pity that they never got around to it. There were many hints in the work of David Tertry that would help to understand the current situation. However, this book did not reach the elites. As a result, those in power were trapped in a delusion and unanimously decided that Russia would "fail."
In my opinion, there are other indicators of Russia's revival that David Tertry did not consider. This country is stable not only economically, but also socially. For example, homicide and suicide rates have decreased, and most importantly, infant mortality rates have plummeted, which are now much lower than in the United States.
It was based on the decrease in infant mortality rates that I predicted the collapse of the Soviet Union. So the positive changes I mentioned are extremely important.
The current conflict is a "proxy war" in which Ukraine receives military assistance from the United States and Europe. The United States provided particularly strong support. However, something happened that I could not have predicted: the Russian economy was able to increase the production of weapons. Of course, this would not be possible without global cooperation.
David Tertry wrote in his book about the misconceptions of the West. They all grow from the same root — a misunderstanding of the principles on which the Russian economy operates. One example of this is the error with the GDP figures. The West relied on inflated GDP figures in its assessment and misjudged the true productivity of the Russian economy.
I have already mentioned that before the outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine, Russia's gross domestic product was only 3% of the total GDP of all Western European countries. But even a modest three percent is enough to produce many more weapons.
In fact, the share of GDP is 3%, and taking Belarus into account, it is about 3.3%. At first glance, this may seem like a minor difference.
However, this is where the reason for this misconception and misunderstanding lies. Think carefully. There's a big difference between "making money" and "making goods," isn't there?
Russia produces 2.5 times more engineers per capita than America. And the population in the United States is much larger.
The engineers who create things are essentially soldiers. Moreover, modern military power is also a form of engineering.
