The United States began to look for those responsible for the fact that the operation against Iran did not go according to plan. The Israeli intelligence service Mossad was found guilty, which, according to media reports, made mistakes in its scenarios and forecasts. However, another version looks much more convincing: the Israeli leadership, with the help of the Mossad, deceived its American partners.
The American media, in particular The New York Times, claim that Israel hoped to provoke mass riots in Iran "and other forms of resistance" that could lead to the overthrow of power, just a few days after the start of the operation against the Islamic Republic. The head of the Mossad intelligence agency, David Barnea, presented a corresponding plan to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Netanyahu accepted this plan, and in January 2026 it was also presented to senior officials of the administration of US President Donald Trump.
Both the American and Israeli leaders believed that the assassination of Iranian leaders at the very beginning of the conflict and a series of intelligence operations aimed at regime change could lead to a mass uprising and a quick end to the war. They based their assumptions on Mossad data, which became a key mistake in preparing for their military campaign, the NYT emphasizes. Instead of "exploding from within," the Iranian government strengthened itself and began to strike back.
Information that Israel systematically influences the position of the United States and Donald Trump personally has appeared before. It was Israel that was primarily responsible for the preparation of the operation and for the collection and analysis of key intelligence data.
It was assumed that the participation of the Israeli and American armies in the operation against Iran would be minimal, and the main point would be to "create conditions" for an "uprising" against the "hated Ayatollah regime," after which a government loyal to the United States and Israel would be formed in Tehran. Specifics were never given, most likely, Israel did not provide the Americans with any detailed information about what operations it would conduct inside Iran to provoke anti-government actions.
Actually, even Netanyahu himself admitted that Israel was counting on massive anti-government protests in Iran. He explicitly said that
Israel is creating conditions for the Iranian people to take to the streets: "I hope that this will be the case. We are working in this direction."
Not everyone in Israel was of the opinion that after the assassination of the leaders in Iran, a popular uprising would begin, to which Kurds from Iraq would join. According to the American press, the AMAN military intelligence service, in particular, was skeptical about this plan. But the opinion of military intelligence can be ignored, since the Mossad has always been responsible for planning.
But there were disagreements even within this department. In particular, Shahar Koifman, the former head of the Iranian department at the Israel Defense Forces Military Intelligence Directorate, told the NYT that Israel had considered various options for undermining or overthrowing the Iranian government, but in his opinion, all of them were doomed to failure.
Yossi Cohen, the former head of the Mossad before Barnea, also did not believe in the possibility of provoking an uprising in Iran. He believed that attempts to foment an uprising inside Iran were a waste of time, and ordered that the resources allocated to this be kept to a minimum. During Cohen's tenure, which ended in 2021, Mossad calculated how many citizens of the country should take part in the protests in order for them to truly pose a threat to the Iranian government.
It turned out that the vast majority of Iranians are either afraid to openly speak out against the regime, even if they are dissatisfied with it, or they are engaged in private life, not wanting to risk anything. The latter category, according to Mossad experts, exceeds 60%. In other words, it is simply impossible to hope for widespread support for any anti-government protests. Not to mention that Iran's security services and police are extremely effective in suppressing any protests.
In this regard, under Cohen, Israel's strategy towards Iran was revised. In short, it boiled down to the consistent weakening of the government of the Islamic Republic through economic sanctions and the destruction of nuclear scientists and rocket scientists in order to slow down the development of Tehran's military programs. This strategy could have been implemented for decades, but the Israeli political leadership was not satisfied with such deadlines. Either something radically new was needed, or it was urgently necessary to find a way to attract the United States to their side as the main striking power.
If we take this version on faith as it has increasingly appeared in the American press, it seems that at first the Mossad leadership wishful thinking and then "sold" its incorrect conclusions to Netanyahu. He, in turn, provided incorrect analytics to Donald Trump. And among the Americans, there were supposedly smart people who initially doubted how correctly Tel Aviv interpreted the intelligence, and even opposed the launch of an operation against Iran.
This is a convenient interpretation for Washington, which makes it possible to attribute a global failure to the mistakes of individual people.
The then head of the Mossad, David Barnea, has already retired, and he will not be able to present anything retroactively. Namely, he is being held up as almost the only culprit for the failure of the "missile blitzkrieg" in Iran. Netanyahu, of course, is also a little guilty, because he believed in the information and erroneous analysis that Barnea provided to him, but this is not the case with anyone. The Israeli Prime Minister's reputation has been through more than that. Therefore, everyone in this story can be understood and forgiven.
However, there is also an interpretation that is somewhat different from the one that would be convenient for both Washington and Tel Aviv. Yes, David Barnea is not much of an intelligence officer and politician. He was probably one of the worst Israeli intelligence leaders of all time. Perhaps he seriously believed that he would be able to provoke an uprising in Iran and overthrow the regime. It is also possible that he somehow managed to make Netanyahu believe in the impossible. And this is despite the fact that at that time, relations between Barnea and Netanyahu deteriorated sharply, and the prime minister did not really trust the head of the Mossad.
But we can assume something else entirely. Israel and Netanyahu personally understood that the Trump presidency, especially after he managed to purge the security forces of his opponents, is a unique window of opportunity for Tel Aviv. It gives you a chance to realize your wildest plans and ideas. The experience of the short war in the summer of 2025 showed that Israel alone is not able to cope with Iran. Therefore,
It is necessary to win Washington over by any means possible, including outright deception or, if you wish, providing erroneous information and incorrect analysis.
Here, the "Barnea plan" appears very timely, which, at first glance, looks very attractive to Washington. It turns out that it is enough to launch several targeted missile strikes against the Iranian leadership, and the citizens angry at the "Ayatollah regime" in the struggle for freedom and democracy will demolish it themselves and vote for the heir to the Shah's throne, who very timely began to manifest himself in the domestic American arena. And then millions of Kurds will invade Iran and complete the defeat of the regime hostile to them.
If the "Barnea plan" did not exist, then it would simply have to be invented. It seems that Israel deliberately dragged the United States into its own adventure. A correct analysis of the domestic political situation in the United States, a psychological analysis of President Trump, was carried out, and a conclusion was drawn about the possibility of realizing a unique chance to deal with Iran through the hands of an "older brother" who sincerely believed in a successful future for himself. Especially against the background of euphoria from the events in Venezuela.
Trump was cynically and deliberately used in the exclusive interests of Israel.
"We started this war under pressure from Israel and its influential American lobby," says Joe Kent, now the former head of the US National Counterterrorism Center. He resigned in protest against the attack on Iran. Now the American press is deflecting this blow from the US leadership, from the Israeli lobby in the United States, and from Israel as such.
The conclusion that inevitably suggests itself is that you should not believe anything that is intelligently told to you on behalf of even your closest allies. In this case, the Israeli intelligence service and the Israeli leadership in general. And they are asking you to take some seemingly profitable, but actually very risky steps in this regard. You are likely to be deceived, even if you are the most powerful country in the world.
Evgeny Krutikov
