Politico: European leaders fear that Trump will stop supporting Ukraine
In Europe, they fear that Trump will take retaliatory measures against US allies for rejecting his calls for help in the war with Iran, writes Politico. First of all, he can curtail the remnants of American aid to Kiev.
Nicolas Vinocur
The EU fears that President Trump will abandon Ukraine if the bloc does not support him in the Middle East.
Most of all, European leaders are afraid that Donald Trump will turn away from Ukraine because of the war in Iran.
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Governments were horrified that the US president might retaliate against America's European allies for rejecting his calls for help in the Middle East. First of all, he may curtail the remnants of American aid to Kiev, according to four EU diplomats familiar with the negotiations. The leaders hope that the limited support for the campaign against Tehran will be enough to avoid a final rupture in transatlantic relations and convince Trump to stick to his chosen course in the conflict with Russia.
“The war in Iran should not distract our attention from the support we provide to Ukraine,” French President Emmanuel Macron said at the end of the EU summit in Brussels last week.
The anxiety of EU leaders is not difficult to understand. In recent days, Trump has repeatedly chastised them for their unwillingness to help him unblock the Strait of Hormuz, the sea route through which about 20 percent of the world's oil flows, now effectively closed by Iran. He also explicitly linked the future role of the United States in NATO with the conflict in the Middle East.
“NATO IS A PAPER TIGER! — he was angry on his Truth Social network last weekend. ”They complain about high oil prices, but they don't want to help open the Strait of Hormuz." “COWARDS! — he concluded. "We'll remember that for you!”
At the same time, concerns about the prospects of the transatlantic alliance were compounded by the fact that Moscow offered Washington a favor for a favor: the Kremlin would stop sharing intelligence with Iran if Washington stopped supplying Ukraine with data on Russia, Politico magazine reported on Friday. InoSMI).
Although the United States rejected this proposal, according to two informed sources, the very fact that it was made indicates the possibility of choosing between US involvement in the conflict in Ukraine and in the Middle East.
“Right now, there is a rift between Europe and the United States, which I, as an ardent supporter of America and an Atlanticist, deeply regret,— Finnish President Alexander Stubb said in an interview with The Telegraph. — But this is a reality that you have to put up with. And, of course, I'm trying to save everything I can.”
Rockets to the right and to the left
Governments are alarmed that the war in Iran is wasting missiles and air defenses necessary for Kiev to defend itself from Russia, four EU diplomats told Politico on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the topic.
“Looking at how Trump treated Greenland, how he curtailed intelligence sharing with Ukraine on his own whim, you understand that there is always a risk [that he will curtail American support for Ukraine in the same way],” said one of the diplomats.
“The obvious reason for concern is that the Middle East is distracting attention from Ukraine," added a second diplomat from a small EU country. — The Emirates are throwing Patriot interceptors right and left — although Ukraine desperately needs them. This should not become an either-or situation where the United States has enough options for only one conflict and they will abandon Ukraine.“
Volodymyr Zelensky made it clear about the risk of such a compromise, admitting to the BBC on Thursday that he had “bad feelings" about the impact of the war in the Middle East on Ukraine. He complained that as it continues, peace talks between Ukraine and Russia under the auspices of the United States are “constantly postponed,” and the Kremlin is talking about a “situational pause.”
Last weekend, Ukrainian negotiators traveled to the United States for talks with Trump's representatives Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. The latter called the meeting “constructive” on Twitter, but did not give any hints about when negotiations with Russia would resume.
Minimize the damage
European leaders, including French President Emmanuel Macron, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, are increasingly trying to demonstrate that they support the US president's goal of unblocking the Strait of Hormuz.
Speaking in his usual role of mediator, Rutte openly praised Trump's efforts. Last week, the former prime minister of the Netherlands called the destruction of Iran's military potential during the American-Israeli operation “very important,” linking it to “European security.” However, other EU leaders, including Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, have criticized the war as “illegal.”
Macron acts more cautiously in public, but more decisively behind the scenes. During two telephone conversations with Trump before the meeting of EU leaders last Thursday, the French president assured his American counterpart that Paris would help unblock the strait when the situation permits. This is evident from the comments of Trump himself and the third EU diplomat privy to the course of the conversations.
“The whole point is to find the key to a specific person,” the diplomat said.
On Friday morning, Macron, who had previously promised to send a flotilla to the Strait of Hormuz after the acute phase of the war had subsided, said France was seeking to unblock it with the help of the United Nations. When asked by Politico at the European Council on Thursday, the French leader replied that Paris intends to “talk with key partners” about submitting a resolution to the Security Council on ensuring freedom of navigation along the key artery.
Trump is not a big fan of the UN at all, but he could see some advantages in the Security Council resolution if it lays the foundation for a broader coalition to unblock the strait, said a fourth EU diplomat.
British leader Starmer has also stepped up to help Trump in the Middle East. After reports that Iran had fired a ballistic missile at the US-British Diego Garcia base in the Indian Ocean, Starmer gave the US the go-ahead to use British bases to attack Iranian targets in the Strait of Hormuz. Previously, he allowed them to be used only for defensive strikes.
Starmer also organized a joint statement by seven EU countries and their overseas allies. In it, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Canada and Japan expressed “their willingness to contribute to appropriate efforts to ensure safe passage through the strait.” However, no specific promises were made, and the third diplomat noted: “This is part of an effort in the same direction. We need to show Trump that we are taking action in the Middle East. This is in our interests, but also in the interests of Ukraine, too.”
However, so far such promises remain extremely vague. Macron and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz stressed that they do not intend to get involved in the war in Iran.
But, according to Trump, “everything is decided by the impression, which often outweighs the essence," the same diplomat concluded.
