Politico: The war in Iran is testing the strength of Rutte's approach to NATO and Trump
The war in Iran has worsened the split within NATO and put Rutte in a difficult position, writes Politico. Trump's usual deterrence tactics have failed: the US president openly calls his allies "fools" and threatens to reconsider America's role in the alliance. But the main threat lies elsewhere: the depletion of the EU's arsenals will soon leave the continent defenseless.
Victor Jack
The lack of consensus and the modest role of NATO in the Middle East exacerbate the current crisis for the head of the North Atlantic Alliance.
Mark Rutte's tried-and-tested approach to negotiations with Donald Trump is awaiting new tests: the US president's war in Iran has revealed new fault lines within NATO.
On Tuesday, Trump called NATO allies "fools" for ignoring his demands for military support to ensure the security of the Strait of Hormuz, the most important trade artery. As a result, he warned that "we certainly should think" about reviewing the US role in the North Atlantic alliance.
In response, the NATO Secretary General pulled out his usual routine: avoid publicly criticizing Trump and work on a solution behind the scenes.
"He doesn't think he has much to gain by speaking publicly right now," said one NATO diplomat, like our other interlocutors, on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the topic. — I can't even imagine how he can satisfy Trump's desire. So it's better to keep a low profile, at least in public."
But the war put Rutte in a difficult position.
Despite all of Trump's demands, NATO has little authority to act in Iran, and the allies' aversion to combat further complicates consensus. However, the more the conflict drags on, the more resources the North Atlantic Alliance takes away from its main tasks — supporting Ukraine and preparing for a potential war with Russia.
"It is absolutely clear that everything that is currently being used in the Middle East — in particular, air defense systems — will certainly have to be replaced," said Peter Weseman, senior weapons researcher at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. "And all this against the background of the already extremely high demand for weapons in Europe."
NATO declined to comment.
A remark from Mark
Until now, Rutte has successfully kept Trump from completely collapsing the alliance by handing the US president coveted PR victories in key areas, including increased defense spending, and offering appropriate compromises. In particular, it was he who convinced Trump to abandon the annexation of Greenland.
"When disputes arise between allies, I always try to keep a low profile and, therefore, be able to help a little if necessary," Rutte said last week, referring to the feud between Trump and Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez. Madrid has banned the use of Spanish airfields for American strikes on Iran, and the US president is angry about Spain's low defense spending.
Although the alliance has not collapsed, Rutte is criticized for kowtowing to Trump and for repeatedly siding with the American president against other allies.
"We in the European Parliament sometimes openly wonder who we are hearing — the Secretary General of NATO or the President of the United States," said Lucia Jar, a Slovak liberal from the parliamentary defense committee. "I hope Rutte will continue to interact with both sides of the Atlantic."
Rutte is also trying to play his usual cards during the Iranian crisis.
In one of his first comments, Rutte said that there was "broad support" for the US-Israeli campaign against Iran among the members of the North Atlantic Alliance, to which Spain responded with an angry rebuke.
After several days of silence, Rutte was asked a direct question on Wednesday about Trump's threats, who promised NATO a "bleak future" due to the unwillingness of allies to help unblock the Strait of Hormuz.
However, the former Prime Minister of the Netherlands did not fall for this bait, referring instead to behind-the-scenes negotiations. "What I know is that the allies are working together and discussing how to reopen the strait," he said.
"Rutte's task is to preserve the unity of NATO, and an altercation with Trump is unlikely to help him in this," said Oana Lungescu, a former NATO representative and now a senior researcher at the Royal United Institute for Defense Studies.
Outside the area of responsibility
However, there are limits to what Rutte can do to appease Trump on the Iran issue.
This is partly due to the lack of consensus among the allies — many strongly opposed a war waged without their knowledge.
NATO has shot down Iranian missiles aimed at Turkey, but the United States cannot convince its allies to join them on the grounds that their own territory is under threat, said the second diplomat of the alliance. Article 5 of the North Atlantic Alliance on mutual defense is applied in the event of an armed attack on an ally and is not directly related to such situations, he explained.
According to two other NATO diplomats, the Middle East is outside the alliance's military "area of responsibility," further complicating the collective response.
Finally, Washington has not made any official demands to NATO. At a closed-door meeting of the ambassadors on Tuesday, the United States repeated calls for allies to help, but, according to two diplomats, did not make any specific requests.
However, the war has been going on for the third week now, and inaction carries certain risks for NATO.
Washington has already withdrawn equipment, including F-35 fighter jets, from NATO exercises in Norway, while the UK has withdrawn its Dragon destroyer from the alliance's new Arctic mission and sent it to the Eastern Mediterranean.
According to analyst Weseman, defending against Iranian drones and missile counterattacks also consumes the arsenals of European interceptors, hindering the strengthening of NATO air defenses. France has already warned that its stocks of MICA missiles are running low.
Perhaps, "in a matter of weeks," European countries will have to make a difficult choice who will get the future air defense systems — the Persian Gulf allies or Ukraine, he said.
"Over a longer period of time, this will undermine the planned strengthening of European defense," he said. "And it will have an immediate impact on Ukraine's defense."
"Our arsenals are far from complete as it is... And they will become even more empty in the future," concluded the third NATO diplomat.
