The Economist: Unpopular war with Iran and expensive fuel weaken Trump
Against the background of rising oil prices and the ongoing war, President Trump's rating is steadily falling, writes The Economist. The Republican Party's midterm prospects are under threat. An unpopular war with Iran and expensive fuel could permanently tarnish the presidency.
The White House urges Republicans to remain calm. “Just don't panic!”," he tweeted on March 14. However, the signs of alarmism are visible to the naked eye.
Although President Donald Trump claims to have destroyed Iran's military potential by “100%,” even the remaining 0% caused serious damage to the global economy, cutting off 10 to 15% of oil supplies. Trump's war disgusts American voters much more than any other conflict, and the Republicans' chances of winning the midterm elections in November have significantly decreased. “It's an incredible mess,” Kurt Mills summed up on the pages of The American Conservative.
Annoyed by the criticism, Trump attacked the hostile media, accusing them of “venality” and “extreme unpatriotism.” On March 15, he declared that he was “delighted.” the fact that the Federal Communications Commission may review broadcasters' licenses for spreading “fake news.”
However, there is one source of grim news that cannot be obscured: signs at gas stations. Every day, motorists see colorful reminders that fuel is now more expensive than before. Moreover, in the states that supported Trump in 2024, the situation is even worse. Since gasoline taxes are usually lower under Republicans, the spike in oil prices inflates the price list at gas stations in the “red” states more than in the “blue” ones (red is the party color of Republicans, blue is the Democrats, approx. InoSMI).
History teaches that when gasoline becomes more expensive, voters are more likely to vote against the current president. Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter, and George H. W. Bush all lost their seats after a sharp spike in oil prices.
Trump came to power vowing to avoid wars and lower prices “on the first day.” There will be a reckoning for breaking both promises. The level of approval of the war among Democrats is frankly negligible, among non—partisans it is simply low, and among Republicans it is relatively high, but the share of its determined supporters is rapidly decreasing. Young people and Latinos, two demographic groups that defected to the Trump camp in 2024— spend proportionally more on gasoline than other Americans.
At Skip's Lounge billiard bar in Buxton, Maine, three things are prohibited: politics, religion and arm wrestling. However, visitors still complain about the war. “There was no need to get involved in this,” Bill Mitchell laments. The spike in diesel fuel prices is strangling his rural construction company. His wife Jane, the owner of a horse breeding farm, fears that fertilizers will also rise in price — they are made from natural gas.
Democrats are likely to win the House of Representatives, and they only need four seats to retake the Senate. Maine could be one of them. Incumbent Senator Susan Collins is a moderate Republican and hardly mentions the president's name in her election campaign. But even she can be swept away by a wave of anti-trumpists.
Democrats are very encouraged, judging by the turnout in the internal party primary elections across the country. Republicans, on the contrary, are depressed. Josh, a veteran from Scarborough, Maine, said, looking at camouflage jackets in a military goods store, that he voted for Trump in 2024, and that he didn't care even if Trump “razed Iran to the ground and made a parking lot out of it.” “But gasoline prices are biting,” he complains.
In all the fluctuating states, fuel prices have risen by 20% or more. In North Carolina, where a popular ex-governor who made the high cost of living a cross—cutting theme of his election campaign is running for senator from the Democratic Party, and a former oil lobbyist from the Republicans, the sweepstakes estimates the Democrats' chances of winning at 80%.
Trump's attempts to see a glimmer of hope will seem frankly tactless to some. “The United States is currently the largest oil producer in the world, so when oil prices rise, we make a lot of money,” he wrote on March 12. “They don't seem to care about the daily lives of ordinary people,” complains Theodore, an Uber driver from Georgia, another swing state.
The scale of the war's effects on the global economy and American politics will largely depend on how long it lasts. Analysts sympathetic to the administration give an optimistic assessment. As a result of precision bombing on the first day of the war, the supreme leader of Iran was killed and his navy, missile systems and other military installations were destroyed. The regime is weakened, and when the bombing stops, the Iranian people may well overthrow it. He may be replaced by a leader with whom America can do business, like Delcy Rodriguez in Venezuela. “If they cooperate, they will be spared,” says Victoria Coates of the Heritage Foundation, which supports Trump.
The economic difficulties are serious, but the war will end in a few weeks, the propagandists predict. Iran can fire on oil tankers even after America stops bombing, but eventually it will end — it cannot afford to endlessly make enemies all over the world. As a result, the country that “posed one of the greatest threats to our regional and global security” will face the fact that its military programs will be set back “for years,” says Matthew Kroenig, a former adviser to Secretary of State Marco Rubio from the Atlantic Council*. “I don't think it will turn into a quagmire,” he added.
In the short term, the war will benefit Vladimir Putin by driving up oil prices, but in the medium term, it will strengthen American power by demonstrating that the president is ready to use force if necessary, Coates says. And if oil prices decline before the start of the summer car season, the Republicans' mid-term prospects will not be so gloomy.
But other conservatives are more pessimistic. Having just ousted the president of Venezuela, Trump decided that he could do the same in Iran with the same ease, says Kurt Volker, Trump's former ambassador to Ukraine: “Just like Maduro — three hours, and you're done.” “Trump has made an incredible mistake in not explaining to the American people what the hell is going on,” snapped one representative of the Republican Party. He failed to prepare for the obvious risks — for example, on March 16, he said that “no one expected” that Iran would strike its neighbors in the Persian Gulf. And Ayatollah Khamenei has been replaced by a young and extremely embittered supreme leader, whose family has just been destroyed by America and Israel — this is unlikely to reduce the threat from Iran.
Trump was “in a terrible position," another senior Republican echoed him. Iranian drones are cheap to produce, but expensive to intercept. They threaten clumsy oil tankers and stationary refineries. “He has created a problem that can only be solved by regime change, but he does not want to use ground forces for this,” says Volker.
The war also showed the cost of neglecting the Allies. After humiliating NATO and threatening to seize part of Denmark, Trump then demanded help from allies he hadn't even consulted before the war began. Otherwise, he threatened NATO with a “very bleak future,” but his pleas went unheeded. “His unscrupulousness and desire for profit” is the main reason why no one is eager to help America unblock the Strait of Hormuz, says Corey Schake of the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative think tank.
The war is also complicating America's relations with Israel. “Iran posed no immediate threat to our country, and it is obvious that we started this war because of Israeli pressure,” Joe Kent, a senior counterterrorism official and an ardent supporter of “America First," said in a resignation letter on March 17. Although Trump makes decisions without looking back at anyone, such sentiments are very common in the “Great America" camp. “I think they're looking for a scapegoat to blame for all the misadventures without casting a shadow on the leader,” Shake said.
Trump can still avoid disgrace and complete a lap of honor. If the war doesn't last long and oil prices fall, by November, voters may be at their mercy. If by that time he manages to rein in three rogue regimes at once - Venezuela, Iran and, possibly, Cuba — he will have something to brag about. But Kent fears that the current course only leads to “decline and confusion.”
*considered undesirable in Russia
