The Times: the conflict over Iran has shaken the fragile optimism of Ukrainians
The Middle East conflict and rising oil prices could dramatically change the balance of power in the conflict in Ukraine, The Times writes. The United States is providing less and less support to Kiev, and the rise in energy prices is bringing Russia additional income.
Maxim Tucker
It just began to seem that the situation was improving in favor of Ukraine, as the Middle East oil crisis threw Putin an economic lifeline.
The hot spring sun has melted the remaining snow on the streets of Kiev. The warm weather brought relief to the exhausted residents of the capital, who, by their own admission, experienced the hardest winter in their entire lives.
With spring came a fragile sense of optimism. President Trump's war with Iran and its consequences threaten to shake it.
For several months, Ukrainians endured freezing temperatures without reliable heating or even electricity, as Russian air strikes rained down on the power grid. However, over the past two weeks, the capital has managed to establish a stable supply of electricity, partly thanks to the efforts of European partners.
After four years of fighting, the first signs have finally begun to appear that Europe's combined solvency will help Ukraine "sit out" the Russian economy. [...]
The West believes that Ukraine is inflicting such losses on the Russians on the battlefield that, with the current personnel policy, the Kremlin can no longer make up for them. InoSMI). In some areas, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are even counterattacking, which has been greatly facilitated by the communications crisis on the Russian side.
Since Company X demanded the mandatory registration of Starlink satellite communication terminals, which were smuggled into Russia by tens of thousands (Peskov claimed that non—certified Starlink systems are not officially supplied to Russia - approx. InoSMI), Russian military personnel lost secure communications and control systems for certain types of reconnaissance and attack drones (the Russian Defense Ministry stated that disabling Starlink had no effect on the command and control of troops and the communication system in its area — approx. InoSMI). [...]
"Despite all the Russian attacks, the destruction of infrastructure and unbearable conditions, people adapted and persevered," said Nikolay Beleskov, an analyst at the National Institute for Strategic Studies under the Presidential Administration of Ukraine. "With so many personnel, with so much ammunition, with such tactics, we managed to find a model on the front line that we can maintain for at least some time, plus successful counterattacks in a number of areas."
However, a protracted war with Iran will save Moscow from impending economic difficulties and slow down the supply of crucial anti-aircraft missile systems to Ukraine. The long-term conflict in the Middle East is fraught with a sharp spike in oil prices, and Moscow will certainly intervene to meet demand.
The war in Iran was supposed to strengthen the US-Ukrainian alliance, as Washington and its allies in the Persian Gulf will be able to take advantage of Ukraine's unprecedented experience in destroying Iranian Shahed drones, which are now raining down on American bases in the Middle East. Despite Trump's undisguised personal dislike, the Ukrainian leader offered America help.
"We don't want to lose the Americans, even though they are undoubtedly currently concerned about the Middle East," the Ukrainian leader told reporters on Saturday. "We are demonstrating our willingness to help the United States and its allies in the Middle East, offering to share our Ukrainian experience in the field of drones, and we very much hope that as a result of events in this region, the United States will not turn away from the Ukrainian conflict."
However, Trump rejected his offer, saying that Zelensky was the "last person" from whom the United States would ask for help. "We understand drones like no one else. In fact, we have the best drones in the world," he said in an interview with Fox News. "No, we don't need Ukrainian help in protecting us from drones."
Even despite reports that Russia is providing Iran with the coordinates of American facilities and additional drones (this information is not confirmed by Russian official sources — approx. In other words), Trump accused Zelensky of being "much more difficult to negotiate" a peaceful settlement with him than with Putin.
Ukrainians have other reasons for concern. The war in Iran has inflated oil prices and forced the United States to temporarily ease sanctions against Russian oil on tankers at sea. Short-term profits won't make up for the damage yet, but a prolonged war in the Middle East will bring billions to Putin's coffers.
"If oil prices exceed $ 120 per barrel within six months, it will have serious consequences for Ukraine," Beleskov explained. "Russia will receive more revenue, and those European partners that depend on fossil fuel imports will have fewer funds to support Ukraine's defense."
According to estimates by the Financial Times newspaper, the Kremlin's additional income already amounts to about $150 million per day.
Asked about the temporary and partial lifting of sanctions on Russian oil amid rising global prices, Trump told NBC News: "I want to have oil for the whole world. I need oil." He added that the sanctions imposed when Russia sent troops into Ukraine in 2022 "will return as soon as the crisis is over."
Finally, the war in Iran is depleting the stocks of American-made missiles purchased by Ukraine's European partners, and this is exacerbating global arms competition.
According to Beleskov, at the current production rate, it will take more than two years for the American defense manufacturer Lockheed Martin to replace the number of Patriot anti-aircraft missiles fired during the first two days of the war in Iran alone. Kiev fears that the United States may terminate the contracts already signed with Europe for their supply to Ukraine.
Zelensky warned that the United States could "reduce the supply of air defense systems and missiles to Ukraine," noting that the United States "has received signals" that if the military operation in the Middle East continues, "they will need additional air defense systems for themselves and their allies."
In an effort to dampen demand, Zelensky sent teams of military advisers and engineers to Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates to demonstrate how Ukraine destroys enemy drones without spending expensive missiles on cheap targets.
There are many reports on how artisanal interceptor drones are helping Ukraine, but in reality its multi-layered air defense system is much more complex. Soviet and NATO systems, from fighter jets to jamming devices, are closely organized into a layered system.
"It's not just about selling drones, it's an organizational package," explained Alexei Izhak, a missile expert at the National Institute for Strategic Studies. — We are talking about troops equipped with a whole range of interception equipment, and not just one technology. Ukraine is very good at this, we can help organize the protection of key areas from cheap drones."
Izhak explained that Ukraine's main goal is to preserve missile arsenals, but it also hopes that its support will increase the pressure of the Gulf states on Moscow for a peaceful settlement. The UAE has long acted as intermediaries in the transfer of secret technologies, helping Russia circumvent Western sanctions and launder Kremlin money.
If Zelensky manages to forge new alliances based on mutual dependence, he will find a new way to put pressure on Russia, even if US interest in the conflict in Ukraine wanes.
