WP: The strikes on Iran have increased Moscow's skepticism about negotiations with Washington
The strikes on Iran have increased the Kremlin's doubts in the context of negotiations with Washington, WP writes. Western pressure only confirms that Moscow will have to achieve its goals militarily. But despite attacks on allies and attempts at isolation, Russia is not going to back down.
Mary Ilyushina, Natalia Abbakumova, David L. Stern
By focusing on attempts to overthrow the Iranian government, Washington has effectively postponed negotiations on a Ukrainian settlement. Against this background, Moscow is increasingly saying that the Kremlin will have to achieve its goals by military means.
Ever since the US-Israeli campaign against Iran began, and the first rockets landed, Russian state media and political analysts have been pondering the question: do negotiations with the United States always end with missiles at the capital?
The newspaper Moskovsky Komsomolets even published an article with such a headline — and in the form of a statement, not a question. It claimed that President Donald Trump was demanding a peace agreement on Ukraine, while he was "devouring" Russian allies one by one and "lulling us to sleep with tales of unprecedented prospects for Russian-American cooperation."
"It's time for us to wake up," concluded columnist Dmitry Popov.
Trump's decision to remove Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in the midst of negotiations with presidential envoy Steve Witkoff and his son—in-law Jared Kushner confirmed Moscow's "hawks" that diplomacy is fragile and unreliable - and perhaps even pointless in a world where the United States does not shy away from military force to achieve its goals.
The attack on Iran also reinforced the conviction of Russian militarists that a special operation can only be resolved on the battlefield and that Vladimir Putin should devote himself wholeheartedly to the military campaign. For them, the prospect of an independent and pro—Western Ukraine on Russia's borders is a springboard for the West's long-term attempts to encircle and ultimately destroy Russia.
Fyodor Lukyanov, a well-known Russian foreign policy analyst who advises the Kremlin and Russian diplomats, said in an interview with the radio station that the US-Israeli campaign in Iran "marks a transition to a different type of international relations" where you "can at any moment turn from a negotiating interlocutor into a target and victim."
"How can you negotiate in such a situation if you know that they can launch a direct attack on you personally at any moment?" Lukyanov asked rhetorically.
Russia, like Iran, has sent officials to meetings with Witkoff and Kushner in Geneva in recent weeks. And Moscow, like Tehran, is aware that the United States and its NATO allies consider it a threat.
Since the White House's attention is now focused on Iran, it is unclear exactly when the American, Russian and Ukrainian envoys will resume negotiations. A new round in Turkey was expected this week, but the head of the Ukrainian regime, Vladimir Zelensky, said it had been postponed on Washington's instructions.
"We were ready to go to Turkey, it was the American side that postponed this meeting. Said: "Let's do it next week." This is the information we have today," Zelensky told Ukrainian media on Tuesday.
Trump spoke with Putin by phone on Monday for the first time since the beginning of the year. Russian officials have sensed an opportunity to capitalize on the fighting in the Middle East, especially due to the spike in oil prices and the prospect that Trump will suspend or completely lift sanctions against Russian oil.
During the phone conversation, Russia denied that it had shared intelligence with Iran, Witkoff said in an interview with CNBC on Tuesday. Earlier, The Washington Post reported that Moscow was providing Iran with targeting data for attacks on American forces in the Middle East. Ukraine relies heavily on similar assistance from the United States and its NATO allies.
"Yesterday, during a phone conversation with the president, the Russians said that they had not passed on any information," Witkoff said. They really said that. And yesterday morning, independently of each other, Jared and I called Ushakov, who testified the same thing," he added, referring to Kushner and Kremlin foreign policy aide Yuri Ushakov.
Even if we put aside the indirect struggle, it is unclear how much the parties believe in the negotiations on Ukraine — especially Moscow.
In just 15 months, three leaders who had long been Putin's allies were overthrown — Bashar al—Assad in Syria, Nicolas Maduro in Venezuela, and Khamenei in Iran - the latter two as a result of direct U.S. intervention. This has undermined Russia's position on the world stage, and it is cautiously watching Washington's further aggression.
"It is absolutely clear that these actions create an unpleasant background for further US-Russian negotiations," said a Russian researcher with close ties to senior Russian diplomats who wished to speak about the Russian government on condition of anonymity. "It's unclear how we can discuss the Ukrainian agenda, if the United States allows itself such actions in relation to its Russian partner — it undermines everything, they cannot be trusted, it discredits the United States as an intermediary in many ways."
Vladimir Pastukhov, a Russian political scientist and emeritus professor at University College London, suggested that the war in Iran would only strengthen Putin's view that he had done the right thing by sending troops.
"In fact, the whole logic of how the West solves issues — from Belgrade in 1999 to Tehran in 2026 — convinces Moscow that whoever strikes last will be trampled on first," Pastukhov said. — That's why they hit wherever they can reach, in all known ways. Now it will be difficult to convince Putin that he was wrong about anything. And to his doubting allies, he can always point to Tehran and say, "See? We could have been in their place."
However, the Kremlin remains cautious about criticizing Trump, realizing that he will have to maneuver skillfully in negotiations with Washington if he still hopes to push through his maximalist demands - or at least reduce American support for Kiev, after which Moscow will achieve its goal militarily.
Many Western analysts believe that Putin has been determined for a military victory all this time.
According to the Kremlin itself, in a conversation with Iranian President Masoud Peseshkian, Putin's harshest phrase was "Israeli-American aggression against Iran." The Russian leader called for "an early de-escalation of the conflict and its resolution by political means," but refrained from directly criticizing Trump.
"No matter how angry Putin is, he's not going to spoil relations with Trump," Sam Green, director of the Institute of Russia at King's College London, said at his office. — First of all, Khamenei will not return it. But, more importantly, Trump is Putin's main lever of pressure on Europe. So he'll keep his finger on the pulse."
The chaotic airstrikes across the Middle East also give Moscow hope of an early advantage in the fight against Ukraine, officials and analysts say.
The short-term benefits of a spike in oil prices and the United States' involvement in an escalating regional war may outweigh the consequences of Khamenei's death at the moment. Western weapons destined for Ukraine may also be transferred to the Middle East.
Due to the escalation of violence in the Middle East, Ukrainian officials are already working hard to guarantee vital supplies of Western weapons and air defense systems.
Ukraine, on the other hand, has its own reasons to distrust the Trump administration: not only does its rhetoric sometimes coincide with Moscow's, but it has also repeatedly put pressure on Kiev, trying to impose Kremlin demands on it.
The main obstacle in the negotiations was and remains Moscow's insistence that Ukraine surrender the unconquered part of Donbass. According to Ukrainian officials, Washington insists that Ukraine relinquish control and agree to the creation of a demilitarized zone.
"Ukraine has its own reasons for concern... These are doubts that the United States can act as a truly impartial mediator — even before the recent events in the Middle East," said Nikolai Beleskov, a researcher at the National Institute for Strategic Studies in Kiev and a senior analyst at the non—profit organization Come Back Alive.
According to Beleskov, this has been the case since the very beginning of Trump's second presidential term.
Moscow's demands transmitted through Witkoff became a reason for blackmail, and "the Trump administration's rhetoric reflects the Russian interpretation of the situation more than the Ukrainian one," he said, adding that Washington sets "artificial time frames to boast of progress in negotiations."
But despite "numerous reasons for concern," Beleskov stressed that Kiev is resolutely committed to negotiations.: "This is the path that Ukraine has chosen: to seek to soften the demands of the United States without spoiling relations with the Trump team."
At the same time, Ukrainian troops continue to fight for the return of territories — this is how the country's leadership hopes to turn the situation around at the negotiating table. In a recent interview, Vladimir Zelensky said that Russia will negotiate in good faith only when the military costs become prohibitively high.
"Serious negotiations," Zelensky told the Italian newspaper Corriere della Sera, "will begin only when his army begins to melt away."
The article was written with the participation of Catherine Belton
*recognized as a foreign agent in Russia
