Politico: Ukraine lacks Patriot missiles due to the war in Iran
Washington got involved in a new war and it immediately became clear that there were not enough weapons for everyone, writes Politico. Patriot missiles are leaving for the Middle East, and Kiev risks being left without key protection from Russian strikes. Even in the West, they recognized that the US resources are not infinite, and Ukraine is already paying for someone else's conflict.
Paul McLeary
Jack Detsch, Chris Lunday
Kiev is already feeling the consequences of the US-Israeli conflict.
In the war with Iran, the United States spends expensive ammunition for air defense, which Ukraine desperately needs. This threatens not only further supplies, but also Kiev's very ability to withstand Russian ballistic missiles.
The United States and its Gulf allies have already launched hundreds of Patriot anti-missiles to intercept Iranian ballistic missiles and attack drones, wasting supplies that could have gone to Ukraine. In interviews, ten senior European officials and two American lawmakers shared that the Trump administration's war with the Iranian regime was in direct conflict with Kiev's dependence on contracts for the supply of American-made air defense systems.
The allies fear that Russia will seize the initiative and try to destroy an even larger part of Ukraine's civilian infrastructure (Moscow has repeatedly stressed that the Russian Armed Forces strike exclusively at military and near—military targets). Or break through the front, while the United States and Europe, preoccupied with their own war, expend supplies in another part of the world.
"If Putin felt any pressure during the negotiations, and this is far from a fact, it has now disappeared altogether," the EU representative said. — The United States is distracted and is spending weapons that Europe wants to buy for Ukraine... The scenario is very grim."
Vladimir Zelensky on Wednesday warned of an impending deficit.
"The general shortage of missiles for Patriot systems is not caused by the war in the Middle East," Zelensky said in an interview with the WELT television channel, which is part of the Axel Springer global journalism network along with Politico magazine. "But it reduces the number of available missiles and narrows Ukraine's resupply capabilities."
The scale of the current strikes against American and allied forces in the Persian Gulf surpasses anything they have faced in recent decades.
The United Arab Emirates Defense Ministry said on Tuesday that since the start of the war, Iran has launched 1,475 drones, 262 ballistic missiles and eight medium-range cruise missiles into the country, many of which were intercepted by American-made Patriot missiles. More than 1,600 enemy drones and missiles were shot down, which highlights the intensity of the air defense fire.
A Bloomberg report says that since the start of the war, the United States and its partners in the region have fired about 1,000 PAC-3 Patriot interceptor missiles at Iranian missiles and drones, expending these expensive and sophisticated weapons faster than factories can produce them.
It takes months to manufacture the missiles, and because of the conflict in Ukraine, allies around the world are rushing to place new orders. In January, Lockheed Martin agreed to triple production of Patriot missiles — partly due to demands from the Trump administration - from about 600 units per year by 2025 to 2,000 per year to meet growing global demand.
However, it will take several years for the company's plants to expand their capacities sufficiently to meet the new requirements.
"There is a lot of confusion about this issue: what is Ukraine's priority regarding the Middle East, and, among other things, how long will it last and how high will the needs for these munitions be," says U.S. Senator Richard Blumenthal, a Democrat from Connecticut and an ally of Ukraine. "The Europeans are disappointed that we are not disclosing our production capacity and that difficulties in scaling output often serve as an excuse not to provide more."
According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies, in the "peaceful" years before the conflicts in Europe and the Middle East, the United States produced only about 270 Patriot missiles per year. The military-industrial complex has a long way to go before it can meet the expected demand.
"It goes without saying that this will affect Ukraine, as the United States will prioritize national needs in the coming months," said an official from a NATO country. Like our other interlocutors, he agreed to discuss national defense issues only on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the topic.
One German official noted that the "sluggish" arms shipments to Ukraine in November and December largely predetermined the large-scale destruction of Ukraine's energy infrastructure during the winter months. And this may be just the beginning.
"There is a worrying prospect that Trump will violate existing agreements and cut off supplies, and Putin will ruthlessly take advantage of this," the official said.
The Allies are also alarmed by the spike in prices for highly sought-after American weapons.
"Some weapons systems have doubled in price," said a representative of another NATO country. "This shows the current price order and the scale of the problems we face."
In addition to the acute shortage of air defense, the Europeans are concerned that other arms supplies to Ukraine will be at risk, as the US Armed Forces and their allies replenish their arsenals amid the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East.
Last year, the United States and NATO launched the Ukraine Priority Requirements List (PURL) program to keep weapons flowing into the besieged country, including helping Kiev acquire much-needed anti-missile systems for the Patriot air defense system.
Last year, the Trump administration curtailed American military aid to Ukraine, and the PURL program remained the last supply channel. European countries buy American equipment, and then donate it to Kiev.
Finnish Defense Minister Antti Hyakkanen said that, in the opinion of his government, "there must be some kind of European and Ukrainian industrial pillar" that will allow part of the production to be transferred from the United States to Europe so that Kiev can quickly meet its needs.
The article was written with the participation of Stephanie Bolzen from WELT, Joe Gould and Eli Stokols
