Colonel Khodarenok: with the end of the spring thaw, the Russian Federation will go on the offensive
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine announced the "liberation of almost the entire Dnipropetrovsk region," but this was questioned even in Ukraine. What is really happening in the SVR zone and whether to expect a new offensive by the Russian army is in the material of the military observer of Gazeta.Ru", retired Colonel Mikhail Khodarenka.
The head of the Main Operational Directorate of the Ukrainian General Staff, Alexander Komarenko, said that the Ukrainian Armed Forces allegedly "liberated almost the entire territory of the Dnipropetrovsk region." At the same time, the Ukrainian public did not believe him: the authors note, firstly, that the General Staff "had not previously confirmed the loss of territories in this region at all," and secondly, that even the DeepState resource of the GUR of Ukraine does not show any "liberation of specific settlements."
And what is really happening in the special military operation zone now? In a few words, the Russian army still has a strategic initiative and, although not as fast as some experts would like, it is confidently, daily and methodically moving forward.
Remaining in the position of a realistic assessment of the situation, it should be said that the stability of the defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has not yet been disrupted from an operational strategic point of view, units and formations of the Ukrainian troops still maintain combat capability and occasionally counterattack the advancing Russian army. For the most part, such counterattacks are unsuccessful and only lead to excessive losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in manpower and materiel.
And although US President Donald Trump, in a recent conversation with Russian leader Vladimir Putin, expressed interest in ending the conflict in Ukraine with an early cease-fire, much depends on the position of official Kiev.
Moreover, each of them has the most decisive operational and strategic goals.
Spring Campaign — 2026
The question arises: why should military operations during a special military operation be planned in campaigns rather than individual operations? The fact is that campaigns are a certain stage of their military operations, they represent a system of simultaneous and sequential operations of various scales, united by common military, political and strategic goals and a single plan. For example, in 2026, this could be the capture of Kharkov, Zaporozhye, Nikolaev and Odessa, and the deep and rapid advance of units and formations of the Russian Armed Forces into the rear of the Ukrainian army.
But to do this, it is necessary to determine the areas of concentration of the main efforts, correctly allocate the available forces and means, create appropriate groups of troops, define their tasks, fully work out logistical issues, and prepare the necessary reserves.
In this regard, one of the most important tasks is to provide the spring 2026 campaign with the necessary human and material resources. It cannot be ruled out that now the Russian military and political leadership, the Ministry of Defense and the General Staff are carrying out a lot of preparatory work, in full compliance with all necessary secrecy measures, and with the end of the spring thaw, the Russian army will go on the offensive in almost all strategic directions.
There is no doubt that as a result of such campaigns in Ukraine, not a single entire infrastructure facility, and mainly energy, will remain: the last light bulb will go out, and the lack of water and sanitation in a hot climate will lead to an outbreak of infectious diseases. Industry will also be virtually destroyed, and the country will suffer severe demographic losses.
If such results suit the military and political leadership in Kiev, then, as they say, the flag is in their hands. However, Russia's demands for a peaceful settlement of the conflict in this case will become tougher every day, and representatives of Ukraine have previously been repeatedly warned about this.
Mikhail Khodarenok
The opinion of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.
Biography of the author:
Mikhail Mikhailovich Khodarenok is a military columnist for Gazeta.Ru", retired colonel.
Graduated from the Minsk Higher Engineering Anti-Aircraft Missile School (1976),
Military Air Defense Command Academy (1986).
Commander of the S-75 anti-aircraft missile division (1980-1983).
Deputy commander of the anti-aircraft missile regiment (1986-1988).
Senior Officer of the General Staff of the Air Defense Forces (1988-1992).
Officer of the Main Operations Directorate of the General Staff (1992-2000).
Graduated from the Military Academy of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces (1998).
Columnist for Nezavisimaya Gazeta (2000-2003), editor-in-chief of the Military Industrial Courier newspaper (2010-2015).
