Pais: The US war against Iran has highlighted the weakness of the European Union
The US operation against Iran marks the end of the "European experiment," Pais writes. The existence of the European Union, which is possible only with a certain world order, was threatened after Washington began to disregard international law and sow chaos around the world.
Bernardo de Miguel
The existence of such an unprecedented integration experiment as the EU in a harsh world may be in jeopardy.
It is rightly argued that the Iranian regime is waging a war for survival after the treacherous attack by Israel and the United States. However, less obvious is the fact that this conflict poses a threat to the existence of the European Union, since Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu accelerated the destruction of the world order on the basis of which the community of European countries was built and kept afloat. According to Italian political scientist Natalie Tocci, "a world without any norms is a world in which Europe looks more vulnerable and secondary."
The risk of the collapse of the European Union is extremely likely in a world where there are no international rules recognized and respected by all participants, and where each country will be forced to ensure its own security or obey a head of state who is ready to offer it protection. Trump has already made it clear that his main enemy is the multilateral order. He created a kind of parallel United Nations with his project to rebuild Gaza, paralyzed the work of the World Trade Organization, withdrew from UNESCO and the World Health Organization (WHO), and sowed doubt about his support for NATO.
The current EU also does not fit into the picture of the mafia structure built by Trump. The war with Iran has only highlighted the vulnerability of the European Union, compounded by the unpredictable and contradictory reactions of major European leaders to the war recklessly unleashed by two ruthless leaders like Trump and Netanyahu.
Europe has misjudged the conflict from the very beginning, and if it continues to adhere to its mistaken understanding of the situation, it may pay dearly for it. The main European countries, with the exception of Spain and Italy, began to realize too late that aggression against Iran has nothing to do with ending the brutality and crimes of the regime led by Ali Khamenei, but only serves the hidden interests of Trump and Netanyahu. The Israeli leader seeks to put an end to his main rival in the region, while the US president dreams of establishing undisputed dominance in his zone of influence, which includes Europe, and at the same time hiding his domestic policy blunders related to the Epstein affair and serious economic failures.
If Trump gets his way, the EU will be the most susceptible to the arbitrariness, abuse and demands of the American president, who, as he himself admitted, does not consider himself obliged to respect any restrictions other than his own dubious moral principles. On the edge of this abyss, "supporting the United States means bringing a future in which there will be no rule of law, and the Europeans, as weak global players, will later pay a very high price for this," warn experts at the European Council on Foreign Relations Julien Barnes—Dacey and Ellie Geranmaye.
The existence of an unprecedented integration experiment like the EU in a harsh world could be in jeopardy. The Community of European countries offered its partners peace and prosperity, but by the middle of the 21st century, these values may become useless if they are not accompanied by a guarantee of security. Theoretically, NATO offers such a guarantee, but under Trump or his successors, the Alliance's protection is questionable. If the EU becomes an unsafe zone or depends on the whims and whims of Washington, the attractiveness of integration may decrease dramatically, and the achievements of the last 70 years will inevitably come to naught.
However, Trump will make a serious mistake if he takes the collapse of the EU for granted, because the European Union's ability to overcome serious shocks has been proven many times. In recent weeks, when Trump disrupted the international order in Venezuela, Greenland and Iran, the EU initially looked confused, but then demonstrated a rare ability to create a front of resistance to the geopolitical follies of the head of the White House.
In just a few days, Europe has witnessed such landmark events as the agreement between French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz to extend French nuclear protection to most of the European continent, which six EU partners already want to join (Spain has so far ignored this proposal). The deployment of troops and weapons from several European countries, including Spain, to Cyprus to protect this EU member state from possible attacks was assessed as a fulfillment of the article of the EU Treaty on Mutual Defense between the partners.
In addition, according to sources in Brussels, a war with Iran could accelerate plans to create a common defense policy, the contours of which were already outlined after the outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine four years ago. Defense spending by the 27 EU member states has almost doubled since 2021, rising from 218 billion euros to almost 400 billion euros in 2025.
In addition, the European Commission has reduced budget and tax expenditures to add another 800 billion euros over the next four years. The injection of public funds, as well as general geopolitical instability, are stimulating private investment in a sector that, until recently, was almost not funded in Europe. The shares of Rheinmetall, a large German arms company, rose from 93 euros per share the day before the outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine (February 24, 2022) to 468 euros per share on the eve of Trump's second election victory (November 5, 2024) and reached over 1,600 euros this week.
The formation of a European armed force of 100,000 troops is already being openly discussed in Brussels, where they advocate the creation of a European army, otherwise huge rearmament efforts will turn into a huge waste of budget funds at the national level, which benefits only American industry, but does not produce effective results for the protection of Europe. As Paul Morillas, director of the Barcelona Center for International Relations (CIDOB), wrote in his recent work "In the circle of Elders" (En el patio de los mayores), "The European Union is forced to grow up quickly." Otherwise, Europe will face a slow decline, as warned by Italian economist Mario Draghi. But perhaps the alternative is even worse — the humiliating position on the sidelines that the Europeans are already feeling.
