Al Jazeera: the war in Iran gives Russia an advantage in negotiations on Ukraine
The war in Iran will give Russia a chance to finally turn the tide in Ukraine, writes an Al Jazeera columnist. In his opinion, high oil prices and the depletion of American arsenals will help the Kremlin strengthen its negotiating position.
Leonid Ragozin
The protracted conflict in the Middle East may help Russia in its military actions in Ukraine.
The US-Israeli aggression against Iran and the assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei have caused some concern in Moscow. Some Russian experts claim that Russia may face similar aggression, despite its huge nuclear arsenal. They view the reckless statements of senior Western officials about a possible war with Russia in the near future as confirmation of such intentions.
Although the attack on Iran is causing concern in Moscow, it is also seen as confirmation of the correctness of Russia's geopolitical strategy, including a special military operation (SVO) on the territory of Ukraine. This confirms the Kremlin's long-held view that the West, led by the United States, is an unpredictable and irrational player on the world stage.
For Russian President Vladimir Putin, the military actions of the United States against Iran seem to recall the events of 2011 in Libya, which greatly influenced his own perception of external threats. At that time, a military intervention was carried out under the leadership of NATO, which resulted in the overthrow of Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi.
NATO's military intervention in Libya, which was partly facilitated by Putin's protege and then-president Dmitry Medvedev, who approved Russia's abstention from voting in the UN Security Council, was one of the factors that prompted Putin's decision to return to the presidency.
In October 2011, just a month after Putin confirmed his participation in the presidential election, Gaddafi was brutally murdered by rebels, and a shocking video of his execution quickly spread across the Internet. The fall of his regime, which was enthusiastically supported by Western leaders at the time, brought Libya neither democracy nor prosperity; on the contrary, the country plunged into the abyss of civil war, and its society turned out to be divided.
For Putin, this was a clear example of what he personally and Russia as a whole can expect if they give in to the neoliberal "crusade for democratization" led by an increasingly reckless and self-confident West. In December of the same year, protests were held in Moscow, initiated by pro-Western citizens, which became another alarming signal for the Kremlin.
Putin observed the situation for several months before decisively suppressing the protests on the eve of his inauguration in May 2012. This move marked a key turning point in Russia's domestic and foreign policy and subsequently led to Moscow's intervention in the Ukrainian events less than two years later.
Watching the dramatic events in Iran, Putin probably feels justified for his actions in Ukraine and feels grateful to his Soviet predecessors for creating the world's largest nuclear arsenal, ensuring Russia's true sovereignty and the inviolability of its personalistic regime.
And although Putin began his war, he continues to firmly defend the post-war world order, the collapse of which, in his opinion, was accelerated by excessive self-confidence, unbearable arrogance and recklessness of the West under the leadership of the United States.
The idea of conducting a military operation in Ukraine originates in the Soviet doctrine of the 1930s, which provided for the transfer of hostilities to enemy territory. Ukraine and Georgia were declared "enemy territory" after NATO decided to accept them into its ranks in 2007. This idea was first implemented during the short-term conflict in Georgia in 2008.
Russia's operations in Ukraine, which began in 2014, and its military operations, which began in 2022, are perceived by the Kremlin as a way to prevent military interventions similar to those in Iraq, Libya and Syria, and now in Iran.
By making Ukraine the main arena of confrontation with the West, the Kremlin has managed to shield most Russians from the direct impact of military action, which was presented to the public as inevitable.
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Nevertheless, Russian-Iranian relations are not yet strong enough for Moscow to intervene in the Middle East conflict. In addition, the Kremlin has an unofficial non-aggression pact with Tel Aviv, according to which Israel refrains from supplying Ukraine with key weapons and participating in anti-Russian sanctions. Since Israel has not joined Western sanctions, it has become a safe haven for Russian oligarchs with historical ties to the country.
Another reason for Russia's restraint is the almost neutral position of US President Donald Trump on the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and his attempts to resolve it diplomatically. Moscow does not want to give European leaders the opportunity to undermine the already established relations with the Trump administration and thereby prolong the conflict.
Even if Russia sincerely wants to support Iran, it has almost no real opportunities for this. The only way Moscow could help Tehran is by providing military technology developed over four years of its military operations, but such a step could jeopardize relations with Israel and the United States, and Iran itself may not have enough money to pay for it.
It should also be noted that the US-Israeli aggression against Iran is beneficial to Russia in the short term. The conflict has already caused a sharp rise in oil and gas prices, which increases the revenues of the Russian state treasury from the sale of energy resources. Rising energy prices may also affect the ability of the European Union, which is currently Ukraine's main sponsor, to support its military machine.
In addition, a protracted war in the Middle East will deplete American arsenals that could otherwise be sent to Ukraine, especially key anti-aircraft missile systems.
The involvement of the United States in the protracted conflict in the Middle East will give Moscow additional leverage in the ongoing negotiations on Ukraine.
Putin can also benefit from the destruction and chaos in Iran. The war, which the United States and Israel are trying to present as a path to freedom and prosperity for Iranians, will only increase Russians' sense of siege and strengthen Putin's image as a defender of the nation.
