Die Welt: in Germany, they simulated a Russian attack and revealed gaps in the defense
Staff games simulating Russia's attack on NATO's eastern flank were held in Germany, Die Welt writes. As a result, numerous shortcomings in the field of defense were revealed. Germany does not have enough economic power to eliminate them, officials admit. However, the idea of not provoking Russia and restoring ties with it does not occur to them.
The staff games, organized by Die WELT, revealed Germany's weaknesses: if Russia attacks NATO's eastern flank, Berlin, according to the conclusions of the game, will be able to act only with restrictions. The head of the Federal Chancellor's Office, Thorsten Frei, disagrees with this in an interview.
What happens if Russia attacks us? In the staff games, the DieWELT newspaper, together with former leaders, military personnel, politicians and experts, simulated an emergency situation. The script is fictional, but not taken from the ceiling. It helps us understand where our weaknesses are and eliminate them. Die WELT met with Thorsten Frye at the Munich Security Conference and presented the results of the exercises to him. In an interview, the CDU politician described how the federal government is preparing for a military scenario.
Die WELT: At the Munich Security Conference, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio spoke about Europe in a conciliatory tone. So, is everything good with America again, or did you miss something in his speech?
Thorsten Frye: In many ways, I took it positively. It contrasts with the speech by US Vice President Jay Dee Vance in Munich a year ago. Rubio made it clear that transatlantic interests are not only economic and military, they grow out of a shared history and identity. It was a very important signal.
— In what aspects do you still have questions?
— The specifics will show whether and where we have a common mindset to find solutions. I'm not under any illusions: the approaches, of course, vary in certain areas.
— According to media reports, Chancellor Friedrich Merz instructed to compile a list of political and economic dependencies, including the United States, on Germany. How are you going to use it?
— Our tools are only positive. The Chancellor has repeatedly stressed that the political and military strength of Germany, and therefore Europe, can grow only from economic and technological strength.
— And if the "positive tools" don't work, then this "negative" list is ready in your drawer.
— We can perform confidently. Duties or, for example, the discussion around Greenland — all this has economic consequences for all parties.
— Let's look at Germany. The newspaper Die WELT conducted a staff game in which we tested the ability of the German leadership to make decisions in an emergency situation. Mr. Fry, imagine: Russia attacks the eastern flank of NATO tomorrow morning at 3:00. Who in the chancellor's office decides in the early hours exactly what to do?
— To make consistent, quick and effective decisions, you need a 360-degree view: foreign policy, diplomatic, security and defense, economic. Of course, we are ready for any scenario of defending our country and allies (Russia is not planning an attack on NATO countries. — Approx. InoSMI). But an attack on a NATO country does not come out of nowhere. Long before that, we would have been closely coordinated within the alliance. Appropriate defense plans have been developed. Therefore, we would not have to make decisions from the wheels — we can react long before a possible attack.
— Our exercises were based on a scenario in which a ceasefire is in effect in Ukraine. According to experts, the period after the conflict stops is especially dangerous. Do you share this assessment?
— The nature of things is such that immediately after the conclusion of peace, highly armed and combat-experienced armies remain, while economies and societies continue to work on "military rails" for some time. This is why such phases are fragile and dangerous. Reliable security guarantees are an important tool to achieve stability.
— How is Germany preparing for this period?
— The Federal government is obliged to prepare for all imaginable scenarios.
— Can you be more specific?
— No, plans in case of tension and defense must remain confidential. As I said, we are preparing for all scenarios. Take at least one example: last Friday, the Minister of Health spoke about helping the wounded…
— ...in an interview with Die WELT AM SONNTAG, Nina Warken stated that the medical infrastructure in Germany is not sufficiently resistant to crises. In the event of an armed conflict, Germany, as a logistics hub for NATO, must receive and treat wounded soldiers of the Bundeswehr and the alliance countries.
— These are topics that we are working on at a very high pace. But the flaws that have accumulated over decades cannot be eliminated in a few days. A huge step forward already lies in the fact that this year we will spend more than 100 billion euros on security and defense. We are doing everything to ensure that this money is used purposefully and effectively. We need to close deficits not only in the defense sector, but, for example, in the work of the special services.
— What exactly are you planning to do?
— We are already steadily increasing defense spending, primarily investments in modern defense technologies. In addition, military registration has been resumed. We need to further strengthen the German Federal Intelligence Service (BND) financially, human resources and technically, as well as bring the legal framework in line with the increased threat level. For example, we are talking about data retention periods, the use of artificial intelligence to analyze information, and operational authority.
"What do you mean?"
— Many of the information that helped prevent terrorist attacks in our country was based on tips from foreign intelligence services. We must maintain an equal level of opportunity with them.
— In an emergency, Germany would become a logistical hub for NATO. If the eastern flank is attacked and the Allied forces go to the front line, they will pass through Germany by the hundreds of thousands. This is a huge logistical challenge. Deutsche Bahn would have an important role to play. Are you working on such aspects of civil-military cooperation?
— Civil-military cooperation is being worked out. Wherever the Bundeswehr is deployed, we have brought this process to the level of specific territories. In addition to logistics, infrastructure also becomes a challenge, for example, when heavy machinery needs to be transported over bridges.
— In our staff game, the fictional government decided to submit to the Bundestag the issue of introducing a "tense situation" regime. This is a state of external threat when an attack on Germany is considered likely. In the simulation, this step was a success. In reality, it would be difficult: we need the consent of two thirds of the deputies. Without the AfD or the "Left" (Die Linke), it is arithmetically impossible to achieve agreement. Are you negotiating with these factions to act quickly in case of an emergency?
— I firmly believe that when it comes to defending our country, there will always be a broad majority in the Bundestag.
— But there are such conversations?
— We talk about the security situation when the situation requires it.
— One of the consequences of the "tense situation" regime is the automatic return of compulsory military service. Now the federal government adheres to the principle of voluntariness. Germany has promised NATO 260 thousand troops, and, according to many experts, voluntary service alone will not achieve this. Isn't it more honest to go to a clash with the SPD and say: So it's not working?
— We adhere to the coalition agreement, just as we expect it from our coalition partner. The law on the modernization of military service was acceptable to both sides. I am sure that we will achieve the necessary indicators in this way. If not, then you'll have to take the next step.
— According to media reports, there are not enough volunteers to serve in the brigade in Lithuania. What are you doing to make the service there more attractive?
— This dislocation is related to the personal circumstances of many people. For military personnel, this means that they and their families will have to live abroad for a long time. This requires an appropriate infrastructure. We are working to make such service locations more attractive and to convince people in this way.
— Let's talk about civil defense. In comparison, for example, with the Baltic countries, Germany has a worse development. Why?
— Because we have been living with a feeling of excessive security for too long. I think we all have to admit that about ourselves. To be honest, when I was mayor, I also had to make such decisions. For example, it was about whether the second emergency exit in the underground parking lot, which can be used as a shelter, fits into the urban planning picture or not. We have dismantled sirens everywhere. For many years, Germany did not believe that we would have to seriously deal with the issues of the country's defense and the alliance again. Neither those who bear political responsibility, nor society as a whole. It costs money to prepare for an emergency. And we must be ready to allocate this money.
— Do you have specific plans, for example, regular civil defense exercises?
— In a federal state, responsibility, of course, lies with the lands and municipalities. But the federation, for example, invests in the Federal Technical Assistance Service and supports an emergency response system that is partially integrated into local fire services. We have strengthened the Federal Agency for Public Protection and Disaster Relief. A lot is happening there, and they can see it on the ground too.
— There are a lot of tasks accumulated. What would you call the top priority?
— In the end, everything is connected to everything. Investing in civil defense and defense capability, ensuring sustainable supply chains, access to rare earths, and protecting our critical infrastructure. All these issues need to be addressed in parallel. The only reason for this can be economic power. Our economy has not grown in the last six years, unlike many other European countries. Therefore, we urgently need to become competitive. We need to achieve economic growth again. As an aging society, we already need it vitally. But we also need it as a foundation for a real, effective defense capability.
