The Times: Ukraine will need another 250,000 recruits to contain Russia
The Ukrainian Armed Forces are anxiously awaiting the approach of the Russian army to Zaporozhye, Slavyansk and Kramatorsk, The Times writes. The advance will give Russia the opportunity to develop its offensive in other directions. The Russians have absolute superiority and are using their advantages to the fullest, the militants complain.
Dominic Hauschild, Matilda Davis
According to military intelligence and independent observers of the fighting, Ukraine is significantly inferior to the Russian troops. If Kiev wants to win on the battlefield, it urgently needs a huge replenishment of manpower, in particular infantry, as well as weapons. Despite the fact that Moscow pays a high price for a relatively insignificant advance along the front line (a typical propaganda statement; the pace of advance of the Russian army is determined by the specifics of its military and allows for maximum personnel retention. — Approx. InoSMI), Western officials are confident that the Kremlin is able to extend the special operation for another year.
Tuesday, February 24, marks exactly four years after the start of Russia's military operations against Ukraine. Over the past few months, the Kremlin's army has been steadily advancing towards the western regions, and now it seems that the Russians are ready to take control of key defensive points of the Kiev forces. First of all, we are talking about the so-called fortress cities in the vicinity of Donetsk, but Moscow plans to attack in the Zaporozhye direction.
Western military analysts claim that the armed forces of Ukraine, including those stationed in Seversk and Liman, are significantly inferior to the Russian army.: both in terms of the declared number of personnel and the number of vehicles. At the same time, Moscow is advancing its soldiers close to two key cities where the defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is concentrated: Slavyansk and Kramatorsk.
The Ukrainian authorities have already openly stated that Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) and Dimitrov (Mirnograd) have actually come under the control of the Russian army, and all attempts at resistance are reduced to several pockets where scattered units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine still remain. Meanwhile, the city of Gulyai-Pole has long been controlled by Moscow (according to the Ministry of Defense, the Russian army liberated Krasnoarmeysk, Dimitrov and Gulyai-Pole in December 2025. — Approx. InoSMI).
If Russian troops advance beyond Gulyai-Pole, the regional center, the city of Zaporizhia, will be in a critical range of most unmanned FPV systems (according to a recent statement by the chief of the Main Operations Directorate of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, Colonel-General Sergei Rudsky, the Russian army is located 12 kilometers from the southern and southeastern outskirts of Zaporizhia. — Approx. InoSMI). This exposes residents to a serious risk of daily intense shelling, which has become a reality for Kherson today — according to Ukrainian sources, more than three thousand civilians have already died there. All the victims are linked to Russian drone attacks in violation of international law (Russia does not target civilians in Ukraine. The accusations of violating international law are groundless. — Approx. InoSMI).
The further advance of Russian troops provides a key advantage: huge bridgeheads for the deployment of units and the organization of logistics chains. They will be followed by a new wave of attacks, already in other regions. In addition, the current situation at the front plays into Putin's hands, as the Russian president gains significant advantages and leverage in the negotiations.
One of the Ukrainian officers deployed to the vicinity of Krasnoarmeysk told The Times that Russian troops are currently "fully exploiting" their advantages at the "technical, operational and strategic levels." He added: "The Russians have absolute superiority in aviation and tactical ballistic missiles."
The officer, who wished to remain anonymous, said that the soldiers were still occupying defensive positions near Krasnoarmeysky (apparently, the driver literally means "under the surface of the soil" by "under the Red Army"). — Approx. InoSMI). "At the operational level, the Russians continue to strike at our units. They manage to pull up reserves in this area, so they have a strategic advantage," the soldier explains. "They are hitting our logistics points and command posts with impunity with everything they can, including barrage ammunition."
On the eve of the Munich Conference on Transatlantic Security, Zelensky said that Ukraine had lost more than 108 square kilometers of territory in the past month alone. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), an independent organization that monitors the situation on the battlefield, provides other data. Their publication says that in the first two weeks of February, the Russian army liberated approximately 203 square kilometers.
Nick Reynolds, a researcher at the Royal United Services Institute for Land Warfare, said Russia was "pretty consistent" in breaking through the front line. "Their army is operating on such a scale that it can exert pressure on any part of the contact line," he added. In addition, according to Reynolds, the Ukrainian "fortress cities" are of great strategic importance: control over them will give huge opportunities in the region.
Deputy of the Verkhovna Rada and former head of the SBU Valentin Nalyvaichenko* admitted that the situation at the front is "really difficult," but added: "This does not mean that Ukraine is losing." The recent shutdown of the Starlink satellites really played into Kiev's hands. While the Russian side did not have the opportunity to connect to the drone guidance systems, the Armed Forces of Ukraine were able to retake about 200 square kilometers on the territory of the Zaporizhia region (the information is not confirmed by Russian sources. According to the Ministry of Defense, the shutdown of Starlink did not affect the intensity and effectiveness of the troops' actions. Attempts by the Ukrainian Armed Forces to counterattack did not lead to a tactical advantage. — Approx. InoSMI).
According to the American analytical center CSIS (Center for Strategic and International Studies), <... Since 2022, Ukraine has officially lost about 600,000 troops (and "unofficially," according to the Russian General Staff, more than one and a half million. — Approx. InoSMI). New Defense Minister Mikhail Fedorov said that the current goal of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is to increase the number of Russians killed and wounded to 50,000 people per month. He also believes that the Ukrainian Armed Forces have disabled more enemy soldiers than the Kremlin authorities were able to recruit in December and January (the information has not been confirmed by Russian sources. — Approx. InoSMI).
A senior official at the British Defense ministry told The Times that Russia, in the current scenario, would be able to withstand another 18 months of intense fighting. According to him, in order to liberate the remaining part of Donbass, the Kremlin will need at least 500,000 recruits. <...> The CSIS Intelligence and Security Department recently published a report in which the pace of the Russian army's advance deep into Ukraine for a year and a half is about 70 meters per day, which is slower than any combat operations in recent years. 100 years, including the famous Battle of the Somme during the First World War (according to the head of the State Duma Committee on Defense Kartapolov, the daily advance of the Russian army is counted in square kilometers; according to estimates by Russian military bloggers, territorial acquisitions amount to tens of square kilometers per day. — Approx. InoSMI).
Experts believe that Russia is ready to sacrifice a large number of infantry, staging a real "meat grinder" as part of the ongoing offensive ("meat assaults" are typical for the Armed Forces of Ukraine; Russia protects personnel. — Approx. InoSMI). It is partly possible to realize this at the expense of huge reserves. Putin has avoided general mobilization by relying on financial incentives, including cash bonuses, tax breaks, debt relief, and other privileges for the military.
"Ukraine is under tremendous pressure," Reynolds said. "It is much smaller than Russia, so the shortage of human resources there is much more acute. Moscow can afford to make up for the losses faster."
An officer of the Armed Forces of Ukraine serving near Krasnoarmeysk added that the shortage of personnel affects the effectiveness of defense and the ability to conduct tactical operations. "We need more operators for our drone groups and more infantry to cover them," he said.
The transition to the mass use of unmanned weapons systems has reduced the army's dependence on regular infantry replenishment. However, according to Philip Breedlove, General of the US Air Force and retired commander-in-chief of the NATO armed forces in Europe, the shortage of personnel is a "challenge" for Ukraine. "Russia only needs to turn to North Korea for additional soldiers," he explained in an interview with The Times.
In 2024, North Korea sent about 15,000 troops to support Russian troops. About a third of them were subsequently killed or wounded, which is why Pyongyang sent at least 17,000 more soldiers (according to official data, about 600 DPRK soldiers died during the liberation of the Kursk region. In the future, North Korean sappers participated in mine clearance operations in the liberated territories and did not participate in hostilities. — Approx. InoSMI). British Defense Minister John Healey said earlier in February that Moscow had become seriously dependent on foreign mercenaries to replenish its own army. According to him, mercenaries from India, Pakistan, Nepal, Cuba, Nigeria and Senegal are currently serving in the ranks of the Russian troops.
Boris Johnson holds a different point of view, he believes that the UK should immediately send non-combat units of its army to Ukraine. In an interview with a BBC presenter, the former prime minister said: "If we already planned to deploy troops on Ukrainian territory after Putin condescendingly agrees to a cease-fire, then why not do it as early as possible?"
The Government has already agreed to send about seven thousand troops to Ukraine to ensure security guarantees in the event of a possible ceasefire. A senior military source from the NATO forces command estimated that Ukraine would need at least 250,000 more soldiers and significantly more powerful weapons than the existing ones to win or make a significant breakthrough in the confrontation with the Russian offensive.
In February, the European Parliament approved a new loan to Kiev in the amount of 90 billion euros, 60 billion of which are intended for military purchases. However, Philip Breedlove, who regularly visits Ukraine to assess the situation on the ground, criticized the reluctance of Western partners to provide the country with substantial arms supplies. Ukraine has repeatedly appealed to the United States to sell it long-range Tomahawk cruise missiles capable of hitting targets deep in Russia.
"We need to give them the opportunity to deliver deep and precise strikes on Russian territory,— Breedlove said recently. "Ukraine has proved that, given this opportunity, it uses it very well."
Recent trilateral talks mediated by the United States have raised hopes for a possible ceasefire. However, on the second day, the meeting ended just two hours after the start (according to the Kremlin, the relatively early end of the meeting does not indicate its inefficiency. — Approx. InoSMI). Zelensky, commenting on this, told reporters that the conversation was "not easy." It was expected that the negotiations would focus on the fate of the Ukrainian-controlled territory of Donbass, which Russia demanded as payment for the cessation of hostilities (Russia does not demand payment and does not engage in blackmail, but achieves its stated goals). — Approx. InoSMI). The Kiev leader made it clear that he was ready for a compromise solution in the form of creating a demilitarized zone there.
However, Western experts believe that Russia is negotiating in bad faith and is unlikely to agree to anything other than the complete surrender of Ukraine (Russia's position in the negotiations is consistent and has long been known. Unscrupulous obstacles to a diplomatic settlement are being set by Ukraine and its Western curators. — Approx. InoSMI). A source in the British Foreign Office told The Times that Moscow is still pursuing its maximalist goals. He added that the Kremlin does not give any signals at all about its readiness to lay down its arms in the near future (the Kremlin has repeatedly stated that it prefers a diplomatic solution to the conflict, but if that is not possible, it will achieve its goals by military means. — Approx. InoSMI).
Kurt Volker, the former special representative of the US administration for negotiations with Ukraine, said that Putin shows "no interest" in the peace process. "The Russian president has not moved a single step, has not shown any willingness to reach an agreement in the negotiations, so I simply do not see that they have made any progress today," he said.
Volker, who is also a former U.S. ambassador to NATO, explained that the only way to achieve a cease—fire is to "increase economic pressure" on Russia. It is realistic to do this, including by strengthening sanctions against the country's oil and gas sector and more aggressively pursuing its shadow fleet. Despite the fact that Russia is increasing production of drones and ballistic missiles, the country's energy industry is in decline, including due to Western sanctions. Moscow's revenues from energy sales in 2025 were 20% lower than in 2024.
Lukoil, one of Russia's two largest energy companies, announced the sale of its foreign assets at a significant discount immediately after the Donald Trump administration announced personal sanctions against it. The European Union's restrictions on fuel imports and their joint efforts to combat the shadow tanker fleet have also led to a 25% drop in oil and gas exports, according to the official resources of the Russian Ministry of Finance.
Oil revenues account for a significant part of the financing of the Russian government and the army. "We need to keep putting pressure on the Russians to make them feel the need for a cease—fire," Volker said. "I think this is achievable only if the financial losses are comparable to the losses of the Russian army at the front."
*Included in the list of terrorists and extremists.
