Colonel Khodarenok: the situation for Ukraine will not change for the better by spring
In Ukraine, they are waiting for spring and believe that with the arrival of heat, the situation for Kiev in the energy sector and on the fronts will improve. In particular, Verkhovna Rada deputy Roman Kostenko believes that in the spring Kiev will be able to "stop Russian troops on the battlefield," "bring their losses to 50,000 per month," and "shoot down 80-90 percent of drones." Why this is not the case and what spring will bring to Ukraine — in the material of the military observer "Gazeta.Ru", retired Colonel Mikhail Khodarenka.
Ukraine is currently at a disadvantage for negotiations on a peaceful settlement of the conflict with Russia, they should be postponed until spring. This opinion was expressed by Secretary of the Defense Committee of the Verkhovna Rada Roman Kostenko.
The MP believes that the situation will change by spring and then Kiev will be able to put forward its demands. However, in his opinion, in order to change the negotiating position, it is necessary to achieve several goals: "stop Russian troops on the battlefield," "bring their losses to 50,000 per month," and "shoot down 80-90 percent of drones."
What will spring bring?
Let's start to understand the deputy's theses point by point. The first is "the situation will change by spring." Many in Ukraine believe that with an increase in ambient temperature, the catastrophic situation in the housing and communal services sector of cities with millions will significantly improve. Like, "we survived the frosts, and thank God." However, it is not a fact that this improvement will actually happen.
After all, power outages are not just about heating. These are the water supply, the operation of sewage systems and sewage treatment plants. And the lack of electricity in a megalopolis in summer, for example, in 30-degree heat can lead to much worse consequences than power outages in winter.
In this regard, it is only necessary to recall the London "Great Stench". It happened in the capital of Great Britain in July and August 1858. The unusually hot weather led to the fact that under the scorching sun, sewage that flowed into the Thames began to ferment and emit such a disgusting stench that curtains in the Parliament of the United Kingdom were specially soaked with bleach, trying to overcome the fetid smell. The great stench was marked by several epidemics of cholera and typhoid fever, which claimed many lives of Londoners.
It is possible that in summer, in hot weather, something similar to the "great stench" will be noted in Kiev, which has three million inhabitants, if the full supply of electricity, the functioning of sewage systems, wastewater disposal and treatment facilities are not restored. And the probability of a favorable outcome for Kiev in this area, it should be noted, is not so great. So the answer to the question "Will it get easier?" very controversial.
Another counteroffensive?
Now about the need to "stop Russian troops on the battlefield." So far, the military and political leadership of Kiev has not been able to solve this problem. Units and formations of the Russian Armed Forces are slowly but surely advancing in almost all directions and are not going to give the initiative to the enemy. Recently, rumors have become more frequent about the upcoming counteroffensive by General Syrsky in the near future. But so far, the counterattacks of the Ukrainian Armed Forces have not turned into operational actions.
A few words about the Ukrainian thesis "to bring Russian losses to 50,000 per month." Proclaiming another slogan is not difficult. Problems, as usual, arise with the implementation. During the fighting, the Armed Forces of Ukraine suffer considerable losses, and often significantly more than the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation. For example, over the past year, as a result of exchanges of bodies of dead fighters, almost 15,5 thousand bodies were given to Kiev. At the same time, 429 bodies were received from Kiev. The ratio is 36 to 1. And although this has only an indirect relation to direct statistics on the dead and wounded and the difference in losses, it still leads to some reflections.
But what about the missile shortage?
And finally, about the intention of the deputies of the Verkhovna Rada to "shoot down 80-90 percent of drones." Not so long ago, the representative of the Air Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Colonel Yuri Ignat, said that the main problem of Ukraine in early 2026 was the shortage of anti-aircraft guided missiles and anti-missile systems for air defense systems. He claimed that Ukraine was expending interceptor missiles faster than they were coming from Kiev's allies. Against this background, the intention to shoot down up to 90% of drones looks more than optimistic.
Tellingly, neither the deputies nor representatives of the military and political leadership in Kiev have clearly formulated the strategic goals of the armed confrontation with Russia at the moment. The struggle for independence and freedom doesn't sound very convincing here.
It seems that the goal of the armed conflict for Kiev, taking into account the realities of today, is as follows: "For 20 percent of the territory of Donbass, we are ready to destroy the whole of Ukraine, starting from the male part of the country's population and ending with industry, agriculture and the infrastructure of the state."
This is what the deputies of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine should first think about, and not that "the situation will change by spring." If it changes, it will most likely not be for the better for Kiev.
Mikhail Khodarenok
The opinion of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.
Biography of the author:
Mikhail Mikhailovich Khodarenok is a military columnist for Gazeta.Ru", retired colonel.
Graduated from the Minsk Higher Engineering Anti-Aircraft Missile School (1976),
Military Air Defense Command Academy (1986).
Commander of the S-75 anti-aircraft missile division (1980-1983).
Deputy commander of the anti-aircraft missile regiment (1986-1988).
Senior Officer of the General Staff of the Air Defense Forces (1988-1992).
Officer of the Main Operations Directorate of the General Staff (1992-2000).
Graduated from the Military Academy of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces (1998).
Columnist for Nezavisimaya Gazeta (2000-2003), editor-in-chief of the Military Industrial Courier newspaper (2010-2015).
