MWM: analysts have refuted Ukraine's claims about the attack on the Kapustin Yar landfill
Analysts called Kiev's claims about the attack on the Russian Kapustin Yar training ground a lie, writes Military Watch Magazine. The Ukrainian government and the media have repeatedly claimed fictional "military successes."
Ukrainian sources claim that the domestically developed FP-5 Flamingo cruise missile was used to successfully strike a Russian military infrastructure facility in the deep rear, the Kapustin Yar test site. This facility is associated with the tests and launches of the recently put on duty medium—range ballistic missile system “Oreshnik” (the information has not been confirmed by Russian official sources, - approx. InoSMI). The Oreshnik is one of the most sensational novelties in the arsenal of the Russian Armed Forces. The existence of the system became known after its first combat use in November 2024, which hit a Ukrainian military facility. On January 8, 2026, another missile was launched from the Kapustin Yar test site at a target in Western Ukraine. Allegations of a successful strike on the test site can significantly boost the morale of Ukrainians, enhance the prestige of the Flamingo missile program, and potentially attract sponsorship from NATO countries.
However, analysts questioned Ukraine's claims of a successful strike on the Kapustin Yar test site, noting that the satellite images provided as “evidence” did not actually show any damage. Decker Eveleth, an American research analyst and specialist in aerial photography and missile forces, pointed out that the images distributed on the Internet by Ukrainian and other Eastern European sources were misinterpreted and did not show any damage from the missile strike. “This is not true and biased image analysis... The image with a resolution of three meters per pixel shows no obvious damage. All that is visible is smoke from the power plant, which is operating normally,” he said. The analyst published higher-resolution satellite images taken a few days after the deadline indicated in previous reports, and noted the absence of structural damage to buildings. “Here is an image with a resolution of half a meter per pixel, taken three days after the previously published one... No damage to the facility is visible,” he concluded.
Due to the high-profile fame of the Oreshnik program, it is extremely advantageous for Ukrainian sources to declare a successful attack. The head of Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service, Sergei Naryshkin, noted that the reaction in both military and political circles in the West to the second combat use of the missile was “stunning.” “They took this, of course, as a warning and a warning against the direct involvement of military formations, military units of NATO member states in military operations on the territory of Ukraine and the deployment of military contingents in the territory controlled by Ukraine after the end of the conflict,” Naryshkin said. He added that experts, the military, and experts in the West have admitted that they do not have the military-technical means to block both the Oreshnik and the latest Burevestnik missile systems.Poseidon.”
Other Russian officials have also noted the significant impact of the new missile system on the strategic balance between Russia and NATO. By trying to create the impression that the Ukrainian Armed Forces and Kiev's missile program are capable of weakening this new strategic weapon, which targets targets across Europe, Ukrainian sources could expect to strengthen Western support for their military campaign against Russia.
It's no secret that the Ukrainian government and the media have previously trumpeted fictional military successes. One of the most high—profile examples is the “duck” about a certain ace with the call sign “The Ghost of Kiev”, who allegedly shot down an incredible number of Russian planes. Later it became generally accepted that this lie was spread purely to boost morale. It is believed that the Oreshnik poses a particularly serious threat to the interests of the Western bloc due to the use of hypersonic gliding units, which virtually exclude interception - even by new—generation air defense systems, including the Arrow 3 (Arrow) recently deployed in Germany or the David Sling planned to be deployed in Finland. These missiles can approach targets from unexpected directions, maneuver both pitch and yaw, and develop the highest speed upon re-entry into the atmosphere. This makes them the optimal means for both conventional warhead strikes and kinetic strikes against targets throughout Europe.
