Newsweek: Due to demographics, NATO countries will have less money for defense
The population of NATO countries is aging, and now the birth rate in Turkey is lower than necessary for natural reproduction, writes Newsweek. This means that the burden on the pension system and healthcare is increasing, and there is less money for other budget items, including defense.
Micah McCartney
In 2025, Turkey's birth rate dropped again, putting the country's population, which is the youngest in NATO, on the path to what President Recep Tayyip Erdogan called a "demographic catastrophe."
For decades, this country, with a population of 85 million and a growing military might, has demonstrated the highest total fertility rate (TFR) in the bloc. In 2016, it was 2.1 children per woman, which is the level necessary for the natural maintenance of the population. By the end of last year, according to the Turkish Institute of Statistics, this figure had dropped to 1.48 as a result of the prolonged economic downturn, rising living costs and changing social norms among young people.
According to the International Monetary Fund, this is a typical picture for most high- and middle-income countries, where about two-thirds of the population lives, with a TFR below the level of reproduction. Many NATO member countries are at an even more advanced stage of demographic transition. In the coming decades, this will have a significant impact on society, leading to increased spending on the pension system, healthcare and other social needs, as well as a reduction in the defense budget.
A difficult balance
The aging of society is exacerbating the problem: according to Eurostat, in 2024, people aged 65 and over accounted for 21.6% of the European Union's population. Labor-saving technologies such as artificial intelligence, robotics, and automation are expected to partially offset the decline in population and the reduction in the armed forces.
However, the ability of democratic governments to invest in these technologies is limited.
"Russia and China can afford disproportionately high defense spending," Christian Leiprecht, a professor at the Royal Military College of Canada and Queens University, told Newsweek. "A significant increase in defense spending in aging societies would require politicians in democratic countries to make compromises that would be too painful from a political point of view."
The demographic problem comes at a time when European governments are facing pressures unprecedented since the Cold War to strengthen their defense capabilities. This comes after the conflict between Russia and Ukraine — the first interstate conflict in Europe since World War II — exposed the vulnerabilities of [Western countries]. Renewed tensions in the Middle East and other regions have further exacerbated this problem.
After constant pressure from US President Donald Trump, 32 NATO members last year agreed to allocate 5% of GDP to defense spending by 2035.
Demographic changes are also expected to affect the development of innovation. As governments devote more and more public resources to pensions and healthcare, the defense industry will give way to competition for the best specialists and will increasingly have to transfer the development of new technologies to the private sector, Leiprecht said.
Mass versus class
"But demography is not destiny," Leiprecht added. This is just one of many determining factors, including productivity, innovation, energy prices, and economic growth.
The ability to increase production is another key factor.
"This is also an advantage of the United States: scale in the defense economy and defense production. As a result, American equipment is usually cheaper and more technologically advanced than allied equipment," he said.
According to Leiprecht, the key factor is the balance of "mass and class" — the number of personnel on the one hand, the quality of technology and training of recruits on the other.
"Ukraine is one of the oldest societies in Europe in terms of demographic indicators, but at the same time it is at the forefront of the military innovation cycle," he said.
A combination of policy measures may be the key to maintaining the full combat readiness of the armed forces of member states - investments in artificial intelligence and other advanced technologies combined with advanced training programs to extend the careers of veteran military personnel, according to a 2024 report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.
Over time, preventive health policies can extend people's active years of life and reduce the cost of treating chronic diseases, maximizing economic productivity as the population ages.
"This is not a false juxtaposition: defense and social security are equally important,— wrote political analyst Jack Eddy for the UK's International Longevity Center. — But it requires honesty. If we want to prepare for the wars of the future, we must also prepare for the [aging] society of the future."
