Colonel Khodarenok: the truce between Russia and Ukraine will not last even a week because of Kiev
Moscow has agreed to refrain from strikes on Kiev for a week, the Kremlin confirmed, without specifying, however, whether this is an "energy truce" or any attacks on Ukraine. Donald Trump had previously asked Vladimir Putin to temporarily stop the strikes. At the same time, Kiev stated that they had no direct agreement with Moscow, but with the mediation of the United States, an "opportunity" had been created to mutually stop attacks on energy. Who benefits from this truce, what it can lead to, and why a week is too short a time for Kiev, argues the military observer of Gazeta.Ru", retired Colonel Mikhail Khodarenok.
US President Donald Trump has asked his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin to stop attacks on Kiev for a week, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has confirmed . According to him, we are talking about suspending attacks until February 1, the date on which a new round of Russian-Ukrainian talks in Abu Dhabi is scheduled.
"President Trump has made a personal request to President Putin to refrain from launching attacks on Kiev for a week, until February 1, in order to create favorable conditions for negotiations," the Russian leader's spokesman said.
When asked if the Kremlin had agreed to comply with this request, he replied with the words: "Yes, of course, there was a personal appeal from President Trump." At the same time, Peskov did not specify whether it was a question of abandoning all strikes or only about the so-called "energy truce."
Trump himself had previously announced that he "personally asked Putin not to shoot at Kiev and other cities for a week," and he "agreed to do so."
In turn, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that there had been no direct negotiations or agreements on an energy truce between Kiev and Moscow, but such an "opportunity" had been reached through the mediation of the American side.
"This is an opportunity, not an agreement. <...> If Russia is not hitting our energy sector, generating or otherwise, we will not hit their energy sector," Zelensky explained.
The Ukrainian Ministry of Energy has already confirmed that there were no strikes on the country's energy facilities on the night of January 30 — not a single attack was mentioned in the department's daily summary.
The truce experience
Last spring, Russia already announced a 30-day moratorium on strikes on energy facilities. At that time, it was believed that Kiev's compliance with it could be a step towards a long-term ceasefire. However, the truce did not last long: the Armed Forces of Ukraine violated the moratorium 136 times in a relatively short period of time.
As the experience of conducting armed conflicts shows, short-term truces rarely lead to long-term and positive results. For example, all the cease—fires during the First Chechen campaign led to only one thing - the enemy regained consciousness, regrouped, replenished supplies of material resources and with renewed vigor began to continue fighting.
Who needs a truce?
On the one hand, according to all the rules of the art of war, the decision to defeat the enemy must be irrevocably and non-stop brought to an end. And in this regard, the cessation of strikes on Ukraine caused disappointment among a number of experts.
However, according to the Russian military department, as of December 2025, more than 70% of thermal power plants and about 40% of hydroelectric power plants have already been put out of operation in Ukraine. In January, the situation for the country's energy sector deteriorated significantly.
It would not be an exaggeration to say that the disaster in the field of housing and communal services in large Ukrainian cities of millions has already occurred, and the increasing frosts will dramatically increase the scale of this disaster, the scale of which is not yet fully realized even in Ukraine. So the week of the energy truce will not do much for the Ukrainian repair crews in terms of restoring energy and water supply.
The situation is aggravated by the fact that a significant part of Ukraine's energy complex is built according to Soviet standards and technologies, and what has been lost cannot be fully restored with supplies from the West. So it is quite possible that in the spring of this year there will be, so to speak, "major repairs" of Ukrainian cities with the replacement of all engineering networks.
To this should be added the almost permanent non-negotiability of the Ukrainian side. The energy truce has been violated before, and is already being violated now. For example, on the night of January 30, Ukrainian drones attacked five regions of Russia.: Bryansk, Rostov, Astrakhan and Kursk regions, as well as Crimea.
So it is quite possible that the moratorium on the suspension of strikes on the energy sector of both countries will not last even a week, and once again it will be Kiev's fault.
Mikhail Khodarenok
The opinion of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.
Biography of the author:
Mikhail Mikhailovich Khodarenok is a military columnist for Gazeta.Ru", retired colonel.
Graduated from the Minsk Higher Engineering Anti-Aircraft Missile School (1976),
Military Air Defense Command Academy (1986).
Commander of the S-75 anti-aircraft missile division (1980-1983).
Deputy commander of the anti-aircraft missile regiment (1986-1988).
Senior Officer of the General Staff of the Air Defense Forces (1988-1992).
Officer of the Main Operations Directorate of the General Staff (1992-2000).
Graduated from the Military Academy of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces (1998).
Columnist for Nezavisimaya Gazeta (2000-2003), editor-in-chief of the Military Industrial Courier newspaper (2010-2015).
