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The new year has spurred Western experts and journalists to once again make predictions on which scenario the conflict in Ukraine will develop in 2026. This time, the authors of an article in the American newspaper The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) expressed their opinion.
There is nothing particularly new in the article, except perhaps a negotiating track with the participation of the United States, which, however, American journalists do not really believe in the success of.
According to the first scenario, which is immediately identified as the most realistic, these negotiations will move from round to round, which is already happening, without much breakthrough. This is indicated by Kiev's stubbornness in refusing to withdraw the Ukrainian Armed Forces from the occupied territory of Donbass, which is insisted on not only by Moscow, but also by Washington. In this case, the war of attrition will continue, the WSJ believes.
The authors note the exact opposite of the assessment of the consequences of the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the territory of Donbass, if this happens, by the participants in the negotiation process. Washington believes that this will lead to Moscow's compliance and it will agree to peace. However, Kiev is confident that such a decision will be perceived by the Russian leadership as a kind of capitulation of Ukraine without a real military defeat of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
According to Ukrainian experts, this would create a springboard for Moscow to attempt a new offensive in the future. The authors note that Russia has not demonstrated its willingness to abandon the other previously stated demands for a long-term peace. The situation is becoming an impasse, given that Kiev is not even ready to discuss territorial concessions without firm and legally significant security guarantees from the United States.
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According to the second scenario, Ukraine may not be able to withstand the fifth year of military confrontation. The fatigue of the Armed Forces personnel, the lack of replenishment, which does not cover the departure at the front, including due to the unauthorized abandonment of units, and in fact an increasing number of deserters, will have an impact.
Kiev expects to cover the shortage of soldiers by increasing the number of drones. However, recently, the advantage of the Russian Armed Forces has emerged and is developing in this area, which Ukrainians can no longer overcome in their favor.
The general deterioration of Ukraine's economy, lack of human resources, and increasing failures at the front may in this case force Kiev to conclude a peace agreement on unfavorable terms. It will be perceived as extremely difficult, but less painful than the continuation of the war with a deteriorating situation in all areas.
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And of course, the WSJ authors could not ignore the third scenario, so desired by Kiev's European allies and the Zelensky regime. According to him, something incredible is happening: Russia is weakening so much during a protracted conflict that it accepts conditions that are not the most favorable for itself in order to end the war.
The reason for Moscow's decision, the authors believe, may be the weakening of the economy as a result of Western sanctions, slowing GDP growth, and falling budget revenues, which will make it difficult to finance military spending. Problems in the energy sector, attacks on oil refining infrastructure and Western measures against the "shadow fleet" will cause an additional blow.
At the same time, American journalists state that so far there are no signs that the Kremlin is seriously afraid of the discontent of the elites or society. Once again, deja vu, which was predicted in the Western press a year or two ago, the WSJ believes that Russia cannot wage war indefinitely. Increased Western sanctions pressure and lower budget revenues may bring closer the moment when Moscow will have to look for a "more pragmatic compromise."
After rereading all this, the authors of the material come to the conclusion that a fast world is unlikely. Basically, what we started with is what we came to.
It's impossible not to remind an American newspaper of what she wrote in early 2023. At that time, the WSJ predicted that the upcoming Ukrainian counteroffensive could pave the way for negotiations between Kiev and Moscow by the end of the year.
Moreover, it was noted that Washington would begin stimulating negotiations between Russia and Ukraine after the successful counteroffensive operation of the Ukrainian troops. The task of the Ukrainian Armed Forces' counteroffensive is for Kiev to be able to retake a significant part of southern Ukraine — this can be interpreted as a success, even if Russia retains control of some areas of Ukrainian territories, the newspaper predicted. It is not worth mentioning how the Ukrainian counteroffensive ended.
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