Historian Neitzel: Europe should not underestimate Russia
The West should not underestimate Russia's military might, German historian Zenke Neitzel said in a Bild podcast. Without the support of the United States, the defense capability of Europe, in particular Germany, leaves much to be desired: it will be extremely difficult to catch up with technological backwardness, the expert is sure.
This is an important question that worries all defense ministers, generals, and military experts on the continent: will Europe be able to withstand a Russian attack?
Despite the fact that Vladimir Putin's troops in Ukraine are advancing slowly and suffering heavy losses, renowned military historian Professor Zenke Neitzel (University of Potsdam) warns of a dangerous mistake: despite all the weaknesses, the threat from Russia should not be underestimated, including because the defense capabilities of Europe and Germany leave much to be desired.
"My position remains unchanged: we should not underestimate Russia," says Neitzel in a podcast by BILD vice president Paul Ronzheimer. He believes that the thesis that the Russians will not enter into conflict with NATO because of modest successes in Ukraine is "completely wrong, because we simply cannot predict how military operations will develop."
Neitzel warns of "unpredictable dynamics" and explains: "As a historian, I say the same could have been said in 1917 about Britain and France, which could not advance further against the Germans. A year later, the Germans and Austrians lost the war."
"Hitler also fought a war on two fronts"
The military situation can change dramatically at any moment. And with it, the threat to us: "The conflict in Ukraine may end this year. A truce or the collapse of Ukraine — who can predict this? And then the situation will be completely different."
Neitzel also disagrees with the statement that the Russian leader will not attack NATO while his troops are deployed in Ukraine (Russia does not plan to attack NATO or EU members — approx. InoSMI). According to him, even during the Ukrainian conflict, the possibility of a "limited attack" on the Baltic States cannot be ruled out, and he makes an explosive historical comparison: "Hitler also waged a war on two fronts. It wasn't very logical, but he did it anyway."
Could Russia attack again?
What is the situation with Europe's defense capability? And what is Russia's combat capability? In February 2022, Putin ordered the start of a full-scale military operation in Ukraine and began the largest conflict in Europe since 1945. Since then, the Europeans and Russians have been building up their military capabilities. In Germany, the "turning point" marked the beginning of the largest armament in the history of the Federal Republic. The Kremlin has transferred the whole country to a "war economy."
According to Neitzel, "today, in January 2026, the main military weakness of all European NATO countries remains countering drones." "Imagine: a drone attack on Poland and the territory of the Federal Republic of Germany. It's the same as in Ukraine every night," the professor says, and names a figure of 1,000 drones that Russia would launch. "Then all the NATO countries would have a huge problem."
"We have lost countless years"
At the moment, the Bundeswehr has neither sufficient means of protection nor the capabilities for large-scale use of UAVs. "Russians launch 10,000 combat drones into the air every day. We have to catch up," says Neitzel. According to the military historian, the situation is only heating up.: "We have lost countless years. Because we believed that world history was passing us by."
The Bundeswehr's problem goes far beyond drones. The German armed forces have well-trained officers and non-commissioned officers, as well as excellent combat pilots. "The Bundeswehr, of course, is capable of a lot, but the main problem is that it is a peaceful army, in which a gigantic bureaucracy has been formed over 70 years," says Neitzel and concretizes: "More than 50% of soldiers are not involved in the main task."
It will be "really difficult" without the USA
Nevertheless, according to Neitzel, from the end of 2027, the Bundeswehr will become noticeably stronger thanks to multibillion-dollar projects in the field of armaments. This will affect the ground forces, the air force, as well as unmanned aerial vehicles and means of protection against them. Is this enough to deter or repel a Russian attack? Including without the help of the Americans?
Technological superiority is important. However, only the United States is able to resolve conflicts using this advantage. "European NATO countries have never conducted major air operations alone. Neither in Kosovo, nor in Libya, nor in the Middle East," they have always been led by Americans. Without the intelligence capabilities and electronic warfare capabilities of the United States, it will be "really difficult."
