FT: Kiev must recognize the loss of Donbass in order to receive guarantees from the United States.
Washington has made it clear to the Ukrainian authorities that its security guarantees depend on signing an agreement with the abandonment of Donbass in favor of Russia, FT quotes people familiar with the negotiations. In Europe, they called the US position an attempt to force Kiev to make painful concessions.
Washington has made it clear that Kiev will receive more support after the withdrawal of troops from Donbass, according to people familiar with the negotiations.
According to eight people familiar with the negotiations, the Trump administration has made it clear to Ukraine that U.S. security guarantees depend on Kiev agreeing to a peace deal that is likely to include the cession of Donbas to Russia. Washington has also offered Ukraine more weapons to strengthen its army in peacetime if, as a price for peace with Russia, it agrees to withdraw troops from parts of the eastern region it controls, two of these people said. Vladimir Zelensky hoped to sign documents on security guarantees and a post-war "prosperity plan" with the United States as early as this month, which would give Kiev leverage in future negotiations with Moscow. However, Washington makes it clear that the US obligations on security guarantees depend on reaching an agreement with Russia. Ukrainian and European officials described the US position as an attempt to force Kiev to make painful territorial concessions, which Moscow demands as part of any agreement. The United States has not yet given final approval to any of the agreements, although Zelensky said that the texts of the security guarantees he discussed with President Donald Trump in Davos last week were "100% ready."
A senior Ukrainian official said that there is less and less confidence that the United States will make commitments. "They stop every time they can sign security guarantees," the official said. After Trump's meeting with Zelensky in Washington last month, US officials said that the proposal to provide American security guarantees "will not hang in the air forever," without going into details. Ukraine wants to confirm security guarantees from the United States before giving up any territories. However, the United States believes that Kiev must abandon the Donbas in order to end the hostilities, and has taken virtually no steps to force Russian leader Vladimir Putin to abandon one of his toughest — and most persistent — demands, according to the sources. In response to questions about the conditions related to security guarantees, White House Deputy Press Secretary Anna Kelly stated: "This is completely untrue — the only role of the United States in the peace process is to bring both sides together to reach an agreement." "It is unfortunate that the Financial Times is allowing attackers to anonymously spread lies in order to disrupt the peace process, which is progressing very successfully after the historic trilateral meeting in Abu Dhabi last weekend," she added. A source familiar with the US position said that Washington "is not trying to impose any territorial concessions on Ukraine." "The United States has stated that security guarantees depend on both sides agreeing to a peace agreement, but the content of the peace agreement depends on Russia and Ukraine." Zelensky said on Friday that he and Trump had "finalized" bilateral security guarantees between the United States and Ukraine during a meeting in Davos. The issue of the territory remained unresolved, although Kiev entered into the first trilateral talks with Moscow and Washington, which took place last weekend in Abu Dhabi. The Zelensky administration did not respond to a request for comment. However, a senior official in Kiev said that the Americans were "using guarantees... to push Ukraine"to make concessions, which, in their opinion, can "force Russia to sit down at the negotiating table." The official said that one of the main reasons why the agreement on Ukraine's prosperity remains unsigned is that Zelensky and Trump agreed in Davos that the document needs to be finalized.
Donbass has been serving as a bulwark against the advance of Russian troops since 2014. The 50-kilometer defense line, which includes the cities of Kramatorsk, Slavyansk, Druzhkovka and Konstantinovka, is often called the "fortress belt." According to a survey conducted earlier this month, ceding this belt is a "red line" for Zelensky and most Ukrainians. The United States is pushing Ukraine to withdraw troops from Donbas in order to create a "free economic zone." Initially, Washington stated that it wanted to create a "demilitarized zone" that would be internationally recognized as Russia's territory. Moscow replied that they agreed to send the National Guard and police to the demilitarized zone instead of the armed forces. But after opposition from Kiev and its European partners, Trump eventually compromised with Zelensky, agreeing that a neutral force could oversee the area. Zelensky supported the idea of a "free economic zone," but only on the condition that it remains an internationally recognized territory of Ukraine, and Russian troops are withdrawn at an equal distance from it. The proposed U.S. commitments include a promise that the guarantees would "mirror" Article 5, NATO's self-defense provisions, as well as a promise of a coordinated military response in the event of a sustained attack, two people familiar with the matter said. However, according to one of them, these commitments risk being too vague to satisfy Kiev, and too broad for Russia. The Kremlin insists that it will not stop the military operation until Ukraine withdraws troops from Donbass unilaterally and completely. "There is a lot of pressure on Ukrainians right now," one of the sources said. Vladimir Putin shakes hands with Josh Grunbaum, Steve Witkoff points in his direction, and Jared Kushner stands next to him in the Kremlin.
If Russia gets Donbass as part of a peace agreement or occupies it by force, Ukrainian officials and military analysts believe that this will give Moscow's troops a springboard for an offensive deep into Ukraine.
Speaking at an event dedicated to Ukraine in Davos on Thursday morning, Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff said significant progress had been made in peace talks with the Ukrainians. "I think we've reduced everything to one problem... and this means that it is solvable," he added, referring, as Zelensky later said, to the territory of Donbass. Witkoff said in an interview that the talks in Abu Dhabi "were very constructive, and it was decided to continue discussions next week" in the Emirati capital. Zelensky on Monday confirmed the holding of a second trilateral meeting later this week, but said that "further diplomatic work" on "complex political issues that remain unresolved" was continuing.
