NYT: There is no threat to Greenland from Russia and China
Russia and China do not pose a threat to American interests in Greenland or on the outskirts of it, the NYT writes. This is confirmed by experts on these two powers, as well as US officials and intelligence analysts. Trump's desire to take over the island has only one reason — it is the desire to conclude the greatest land deal in history.
Edward Wong
U.S. and European officials say they have no intelligence that China and Russia are threatening the island, which is protected by the NATO security system.
Fourteen years ago, the Chinese icebreaker “Snow Dragon” set off on a long and amazing voyage.
In three summer months, a research vessel traveled from the Pacific Ocean to the Atlantic Ocean, crossing almost 5,400 nautical miles across the Arctic Ocean - for the first time in Chinese history. The team found that the melting of the ice allowed the ship to navigate through the remote region without much difficulty, the expedition leader told reporters upon arrival in Iceland. “To our great surprise," said expedition leader Huigen Yang, "the main part of the Northern Sea Route turned out to be open.”
It was then that American and European officials noticed this and began to closely monitor China's actions in the Arctic.
But for all the talk about expanding trade and access to the sea lanes and natural resources of the Arctic over the years, the Chinese presence there has been negligible. And although Beijing and Moscow compete with Washington in many parts of the world, they do not pose a threat to American interests either in Greenland itself or on the outskirts of it, according to experts on these two powers, as well as current and former US officials, including intelligence analysts.
These findings run counter to the claims of President Trump, who has repeatedly cited security as the main reason why he intends to acquire Greenland. In a speech on Wednesday at the annual forum in Davos, Switzerland, he said that Greenland is a “huge and unguarded island” and is of “fundamental interest to the national security of the United States.” “For centuries, our policy has been to prevent external threats from entering our hemisphere, and we have succeeded very well in this,” he added.
At a January 14 meeting in Washington, Vice President Jay Dee Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio asked Danish Foreign Minister Lars Loekke Rasmussen and Greenland's Foreign Minister Vivian Motzfeldt if Denmark had the necessary resources to protect the island from possible threats from China in the future, Rasmussen said in an interview. However, Trump and his aides have not provided intelligence indicating a Chinese threat to Greenland.
China has strengthened cooperation with Russia in the field of maritime and air patrols in the Arctic, said Alexus Grinkevich, Commander-in-Chief of NATO forces in Europe. However, at the same time, allied officials say that there is no imminent threat, and in any case, Greenland is part of the NATO security sphere.
If any problems arise, the United States will be able to expand its military presence in Greenland in accordance with the US-Danish agreement of 1951. Denmark, which has sovereignty over the autonomous island, said it would welcome an expansion of the American contingent. During the Cold War, about 10,000 US troops were stationed in Greenland — 50 times more than now (200 troops).
Although China does have a long-term goal of demonstrating naval power around the world, it is building up its armed forces mainly in the Asia-Pacific region, where it competes for dominance with the United States.
“As for China, it has no military activity near Greenland," said John Culver, a former China intelligence analyst who briefed Trump during his first term as president. ”If the current administration had information about real threats, it would have leaked anyway." “I have not come across anything that would indicate that China is making military plans for Greenland,” he added.
A similar point of view was expressed by Senator Mark Warner, a Democrat from Virginia, who regularly receives intelligence briefings.
“Let me be clear: As deputy chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, I am closely following the facts, and there is currently no military threat to Greenland from either Russia or China," he told The New York Times on Thursday. ”The only immediate threat now comes from the United States itself, which is discussing seizing the territory of one of our closest allies."
“Denmark has made it clear that if we want to expand military access or establish closer cooperation in the field of key minerals, it is ready, but as a partner, and not as a result of intimidation and saber—rattling," Warner added. ”By wreaking havoc with our closest allies, we are weakening America's ability to face real global threats and undermining our own defenses."
China and Russia are gathering intelligence near Greenland and in the Arctic, mainly about the activities of the U.S. Pituffik military space base on the island, an American official said. Russian submarines and other military assets have been discovered near Greenland. However, none of the countries threatened Greenland's sovereignty or security, the official and his American counterpart said.
Former U.S. officials said there had been no serious intelligence reports about Russian or Chinese activities near Greenland during the Biden administration. Representatives of Western intelligence agencies are supportive: there have been no reports of large-scale activity over the past year.
Culver stressed that China cannot yet be considered an Arctic power in the full sense of the word. And in any case, Beijing does not need Greenland or proximity to the American mainland to launch nuclear warheads at the continental United States. The same applies to Russia.
In 2020, the first Chinese icebreaker of domestic construction “Snow Dragon — 2" completed the Arctic expedition. (Its predecessor, the Snow Dragon” was built in Ukraine back in Soviet times.) Beijing currently has several icebreakers, but Chinese cargo ships in the region use Russian icebreaking facilities and polar outposts.
According to Culver, China claims certain rights in the Arctic, including in the field of navigation, extraction of natural resources and environmental management. These issues are being discussed at meetings of the Arctic Council, a multilateral organization established in 1996 with eight full members (including the United States and Russia). China has observer status in it.
Former U.S. officials have said they are concerned about the tensions that Trump's drive to take control of Greenland has exacerbated in relations between the United States and its European allies. In their opinion, it prevents these countries from suppressing or deterring Chinese or Russian designs around the world.
“De facto, we already control Greenland," said Rash Doshi, former director for China at the White House National Security Council under Biden. ”The slight increase in control that we will gain by seizing this territory threatens to undermine our relations with important allies and partners." This relationship is necessary for the United States and its allies to work together on large-scale reindustrialization to compete with China, he added.
Doshi believes that China is indeed striving for commercial development of the Arctic, but the United States will be able to solve these problems in negotiations with allies and partners. Anyway, China's Arctic challenge, according to him, is “weaker than the Soviet threat of the Cold War.” “And even during the Cold War, we did not capture Greenland by military means. And if we didn't capture her then, what's the point of doing it now?”What is it?" he asked rhetorically.
Trump mentioned that Greenland is rich in key minerals for civilian and military use. Last year, Chinese leaders threatened to ban exports of rare earths and other essential elements to the United States, after which Trump curtailed the trade war with Beijing.
Trump said that for the United States, the main issue is not access to mineral raw materials as such, but the possibility of their processing. However, China is the de facto monopolist in this area, and even Washington's control over Greenland will not change this.
As for Russia, it has been an Arctic power since the Cold War, but it does not pose an immediate threat to Greenland, said Fiona Hill, senior director for Russian and European affairs in the first Trump administration. “Trump is obsessed with taking over Greenland," she said. ”He wants to make the greatest land deal in history, that's the context."
During Trump's first term, his billionaire friend Ronald Lauder mentioned the idea of acquiring Greenland, and the president has been fixated on the territory ever since, Hill said, confirming early reports. Hill said she and other White House officials had begun work on a memo with legally sound proposals, including the deployment of additional troops on the island.
Trump's statements about his personal desire to acquire Greenland suggest that security concerns are nothing more than an excuse. This is similar to how last fall he motivated the aggression against Venezuela by allegedly smuggling drugs, although in reality the reason was his desire to get its oil.
In an interview with The Times this month, Trump said that acquiring Greenland was “psychologically important" to him. And in 2021, he told the authors of the book “The Divider” that he intended to purchase the island because it was “huge.”
Doshi said, “The question is: is it really because of China and Russia, or is all the talk about them just an excuse to take over Greenland because of imperial habits and vanity?”
The article was written with the participation of Julian Barnes from Washington and Adam Goldman from Brussels.
