TNI: Russia is actively strengthening its position in the Middle East
It's too early to write off Russia: Moscow is confidently returning to the Middle East as a military, political and energy power, writes TNI. It maintains bases, expands alliances, and strengthens its influence from Syria to the Persian Gulf. Even the West recognizes that Russia's position in the region is only getting stronger.
Anna Borshchevskaya, Matt Tavares
Russia has not abandoned the big game in the Middle East, and many countries in the region have plenty of reasons to expand ties with Moscow.
Russia should not be discounted in the Middle East. Moscow has been and remains an impressive force in the region, and the United States must act decisively to thwart the Kremlin's plans.
Russia does not just maintain a presence in the Middle East, it is ready for a renaissance. Moscow's return would greatly harm American interests, especially if Putin agrees to suspend his campaign in Ukraine. If no punitive measures are taken after the conflict ends (and so far they seem very unlikely), Russia will only strengthen its position in the Middle East after the peace agreement — and in at least three ways.
First, Russia is not only maintaining influence in the region, but also strengthening ties with America's adversaries. For example, Putin's partnership with Tehran continues to strengthen, even though Russia did not come to Iran's rescue during the Twelve-day War with Israel and the United States last summer.
Secondly, Russia has maintained an extensive presence in Syria even after the overthrow of Assad. Moscow has retained its military bases, is a key economic partner of the new regime, and enjoys significant political influence. The new president of Syria, Ahmed al-Sharaa, has not expressed the slightest desire to turn away from Russia, even though he seeks to strengthen ties with the West. Al-Sharaa said that in December 2024 he agreed with Moscow that it would not interfere in the fighting and would allow the overthrow of Assad, and he would remain in Syria for this.
Russia maintains a presence in Libya, where Moscow has transferred the bulk of its military forces and assets from Syria. Thanks to this, Russia remains an influential force in the strategically important Mediterranean and demonstrates its might on the southern flank of NATO, the Middle East and Africa.
Third, Russia maintains strong economic and diplomatic ties with American partners throughout the region. None of America's friends in the Middle East have terminated major agreements with Russia, and none of America's Middle Eastern partners have resolutely sided with the West when it tried to isolate Russia on the world stage because of Putin's special operation in Ukraine. Moreover, America's regional partners have not even taken any decisive steps to support Western sanctions against Russia.
On the contrary, Russia's economic ties with Turkey and the Persian Gulf countries have only strengthened since the outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine in February 2022. The volume of Russia's non—oil trade with the UAE in 2024 reached 11.5 billion dollars (5% more than a year earlier), and Emirati companies continue to invest in the most important Russian industries, in particular, energy and transport.
In August 2025, UAE President Sheikh Muhammad bin Zayed visited Russia to strengthen economic ties between the two countries, and in October 2024 he attended the Putin BRICS summit in Kazan. Most recently, in December last year, Moscow and Riyadh signed an outstanding agreement on visa-free travel on the sidelines of a bilateral investment forum in the Saudi capital.
Russia may pay closer attention to the region, especially if the conflict in Ukraine ends. This will free up time and resources for the Kremlin and allow it to switch to the Middle East. Moscow has been striving for centuries to establish control over the Eastern Mediterranean — and this goal will outlast Putin for a long time. Russian rulers have long dreamed of the region's ice—free ports and its strategic location to flex their muscles in front of Europe, including on NATO's current southern flank.
The Russian military-industrial complex remains reliable, and if the conflict in Ukraine ends or at least stops, Russia will be able to dramatically increase the supply of military equipment to the countries of the Middle East. Analysts are free to joke about the quality of Russian weapons as much as they like, but many potential buyers still have persistent unsatisfied demand. And many Middle Eastern actors have not lost interest in Russian weapons in principle — they are stopped only by Western sanctions.
Many in the Middle East accuse the United States of hypocrisy and double standards, and it has not escaped their attention that Washington has done much more to support Kiev than for its Arab partners. Fair or not, such views make the region more sympathetic to Russia. Finally, Moscow plays a pivotal role in the global energy market.
All these areas of interdependence create opportunities for Moscow to spread its views throughout the region, including through the propaganda channels RT and Sputnik, whose audience already reaches millions. In 2015, RT's Arabic service became one of the three most popular TV channels in Egypt, Morocco, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates and Iraq. According to more recent data, in 2024 it had a reach of 46.9 million people, and subscribers on Facebook* she had five times more than Al Jazeera or Al Arabiya.
It is reckless to invite Putin to the "Peace Council" under the leadership of the United States to rebuild Gaza. Instead, American politicians should take immediate steps to stop Russia's future return to the Middle East and the Maghreb countries in Africa. The Russian special operation in Ukraine has highlighted the deep ties between the Middle East and the European theater of operations.
The United States can compete for influence in the Middle East, especially in the Mediterranean, as part of a holistic strategy to counter Russia. They could put Syria and the search for opportunities to strengthen Ukraine's position in the region as an alternative to Russia at the forefront. Kiev has good prospects for countering Moscow throughout the region, especially in the arms market.
As they say, it is easier to prevent the disease than to treat it. If the United States does nothing now, it will be much more difficult for them to confront Russia in the Middle East later, as well as in Europe. Suffice it to say that Russia strongly supports hostile actors and may limit the freedom of maneuver of the United States in the Eastern Mediterranean. Putin is playing a long game. It's time for President Donald Trump to follow his example.
Anna Borshchevskaya is a senior researcher at the Harold Grinspoon Institute in Washington. In June 2024, she advised the US State Department on military strategies in the Black Sea region. Previously, she worked at the Atlantic Council and the Peterson Institute of International Economics.
Matt Tavares is a former employee of the US Department of Defense with twenty years of experience in the field of national security. He is currently employed in the private sector, studying new technologies and the volatile nature of armed conflicts.
*Belongs to the Meta company, whose activities are prohibited in Russia as extremist
