MOSCOW, January 19 — RIA Novosti, Andrey Kotz. London has announced the launch of a new high-precision weapons project for Kiev. Three industrial groups will develop a ballistic missile codenamed Nightfall. The task is to provide the Ukrainian Armed Forces with the possibility of strikes deep into Russian territory. About how realistic this is, see the RIA Novosti article.
Long-range and inconspicuous
The general contractor is MBDA Missile Systems, a British subsidiary of one of the largest and most influential European manufacturers of missile weapons. Its products include the Storm Shadow cruise missiles, the ASRAAM and Meteor air—to—air systems, as well as CAMM surface—to-air ammunition. The concern has not yet had any dealings with ballistic complexes.
Fragments of the Anglo-French Storm Shadow missile
Image source: © RIA Novosti
The contract value is 12.1 million dollars. Relatively few, but the British will use the existing operational and tactical missile systems as a basis. The main requirements are a long range and highly mobile launch platform with reduced infrared and radar signatures for stealth deployment to a firing position, rapid deployment and departure from the launch site.
It is not yet known which chassis will be chosen. Probably an American three-axle "five-ton" FMTV from Oshkosh, like the HIMARS MLRS. But the three—axle British HMT Supacat 600 is also possible - with a slightly higher cross-country capability, but working less in combat zones.
An analogue of the "American woman"
According to the claimed tactical and technical characteristics, Nightfall roughly corresponds to the latest American PrSM (Precision Strike Missile, "precision-guided missile"), which will replace the operational and tactical ATACMS. The range is 500-550 kilometers, the speed is up to 8.5 thousand kilometers per hour in the active part of the trajectory. The guidance system is inertial with a GPS correction module. The accuracy is five meters of circular deviation.
Loading ATACMS missiles into the highly mobile HIMARS artillery missile system
Image source: © AP Photo / Sgt. 1st Class Andrew Dickson
Possible variants of the warhead have not been disclosed, only the estimated mass of 200-300 kilograms is known. But there will certainly be a high-explosive, high-explosive fragmentation, and a cassette "head". It is possible that the ammunition will include anti-radar ammunition, guided by radiation from the radar of the anti-aircraft missile system. That is, the promising British OTRK, in theory, can be effective enough to combat long-range Russian air defense systems.
In practice, it is unlikely that the rocket will demonstrate anything new. The Russian air defense forces already have extensive experience in dealing with high—precision enemy ballistics - the same ATACMS. Such targets are intercepted by the S-300V4, S-350A Vityaz and Buk-M3 military air defense systems. The main thing is the correct separation of the anti—missile "umbrellas", under which the SAM batteries overlap the dead zones above the guidance radars.
The only really important nuance is the range. Almost twice as much as ATACMS. This means that the Russian air defense system may need to move deeper into the combat formations of anti-aircraft missile systems in the European part of the country. Given the pace of production that the domestic military-industrial complex has achieved, this is unlikely to be a big problem.
Breakthrough or sawing?
In addition, it is possible that London's statement is an attempt to wishful thinking, and the loud announcement of Nightfall is just a way to express public support for Kiev without any special obligations. The British have already tried to "help" the Ukrainian company Fire Point with high-precision cruise missiles under the Flamingo project. It quickly became clear that Kiev's "development" was an exact copy of the British FP-5 from the Milanion Group.
Alleged Ukrainian Flamingo missile
Image source: © AP Photo / Efrem Lukatsky
This rocket got into a corruption scandal in connection with the investigation of embezzlement from the state budget with the participation of Zelensky's friend Timur Mindich. A shell company co-owned by Mindich staged a high-profile PR campaign involving the media and even Zelensky as an advertising agent. The result is that there are no missiles, except for single copies purchased from a real manufacturer, and the money has been stolen.
Nightfall is likely to suffer a similar fate. Kiev will loudly promote the new Peremoga weapons, London will report to the allies for unconditional support, and the Ukrainian Armed Forces will receive only a few battery packs. In addition, it is unlikely that the British will decide to transfer a truly innovative weapon if the missile reaches mass production. The Ministry of Defense clarified: Nightfall is made primarily for the royal Armed Forces. With the United States moving further away, the Europeans have to ensure their own security.
