Welt: the weakness of the Bundeswehr calls into question Germany's plans for Ukraine
The EU's plans for Ukraine are facing a harsh reality, writes Welt. Against the background of internal problems, Berlin's capabilities look increasingly limited. Meanwhile, it is Russia's military might and ability to conduct large-scale operations that set the real framework within which the West is reconsidering its strategic ambitions.
Thorsten Jungholt
The Federal government is sending an intelligence mission to Greenland, the Federal Chancellor's office is discussing security guarantees for Ukraine, and the deployment of a brigade in Lithuania continues. But where can I find military personnel for the large-scale plans of the German leadership?
The 13 Bundeswehr soldiers that Germany is sending to Greenland for reconnaissance at Denmark's request are primarily a symbol. On the one hand, Berlin wants to show the United States its readiness to participate more actively in military activities in the Arctic. According to the Ministry of Defense, it is a question of "exploring the possibilities of ensuring security, taking into account Russian and Chinese threats in the Arctic."
On the other hand, this is also a signal to the Americans: the ambition, persistently voiced by US President Donald Trump, to take control of the island belonging to Denmark, even against the will of the Greenlanders and Danes, is not the best idea. Because, unlike a military operation in Venezuela, it would have cost Washington much more, at least at the cost of the collapse of NATO.
However, at the last moment, the power of the German political signal was muted. Initially, a small group was planned to be sent to Nuuk this Thursday on an Airbus A400M military transport aircraft. However, at first the soldiers flew only to the Danish Karup. From there, on Friday, they are scheduled to continue their journey to Nuuk together with the Danish reconnaissance group and other partners on a civilian plane. This shows that Berlin is balancing between showing Trump a warning sign and not annoying him beyond measure.
"It is crucial for me that we coordinate very well during the joint reconnaissance in Greenland under the Danish leadership within NATO, primarily with our partners from the United States," said Defense Minister Boris Pistorius. The goal is to get a reliable picture of the operational situation on the spot for further discussion and planning within NATO.
On Thursday afternoon, further steps were to be discussed at the Chancellor's office. Federal Chancellor Friedrich Merz invited Pistorius, Vice Chancellor and Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil, as well as Foreign Minister Johann Vadefull to the consultations. Not only Greenland was on the agenda, but also Ukraine. In recent days, the Bundeswehr operational command has prepared scenarios for how the German military might participate in providing security guarantees in the event of a "peace deal" between Moscow and Kiev.
In addition, it was about coordinating the public line of the CDU/CSU and SPD bloc. Merz and Vadefoul advocate cautious and constructive rhetoric against Washington due to its many security dependencies. On the contrary, the representatives of the SPD have recently sounded noticeably tougher. Klingbeil, for example, said that transatlantic relations were "falling apart." At a speech in Halle on Wednesday evening, Merz said that NATO remains the "community of values of the West," which has enough strength "to withstand the challenges that we have been facing for some time." During his visit to Washington earlier this week, Wadefoul tried to smooth over differences with the United States and emphasize common goals.
No matter how they agree on communication, the key problem remains: Our own military capabilities are limited. Statements about readiness to take on more responsibility in the Arctic, in providing security guarantees for Ukraine, and in strengthening NATO's eastern flank are based on the fact that the Bundeswehr's combat readiness is still unlimited. The growth in numbers and capabilities promised over the years is proceeding slowly — too slowly to already have at our disposal the tools that could be used convincingly.
SPD welcomes sending of Bundeswehr to Greenland
Greenland is the least of the problems so far. Back in October 2025, Pistorius signed an agreement with Iceland on the temporary deployment of new long-range maritime patrol aircraft P-8A Poseidon (Poseidon) in Reykjavik. The Navy also has a call point for frigates and submarines there. And the mountain rangers of the ground forces have been regularly participating in Arctic exercises in Norway for many years, Greenland would be a welcome place for them as an extension of the training area. If it comes to participating in a possible NATO observation mission, then it is likely that we will generally be talking about relatively small contingents on a rotational basis.
Accordingly, the deputy head of the SPD faction, Zimtje Moeller, expressed optimism. "I welcome the decision to send a Bundeswehr reconnaissance group to Greenland," she said. "This is an important sign of real European solidarity." According to her, Germany thereby assumes responsibility and actively participates in the common European response to security challenges in the Arctic: "We clearly show that Europe is ready to take responsibility for its own security and act together."
We will have to talk about a completely different scale if the discussion comes to providing security guarantees for Ukraine. The shares of the Navy and the Air Force are also being considered there to monitor a possible agreement. But ground forces will also be needed. Britain and France verbally went ahead and announced a leading role in the deployment of the military in Ukraine. However, practical steps have not yet kept pace with the statements: we are talking about the scale of an approximate number of up to one brigade, which is about five thousand people.
Merz spoke more cautiously about the deployment of troops in neighboring countries of Ukraine, but to an unknown extent. The scenarios prepared by the operational command are classified, but one thing is clear: if the goal is reliable deterrence, Germany will have to allocate contingents above the brigade level. And not for a short time, but probably for a decade. The question is where to get the strength for this.
So far, there is not a single brigade in the Bundeswehr that, according to NATO standards, would be truly combat-ready and capable of being in combat mode for a long time. By 2027, such a compound should be deployed in Lithuania. But it is intended for the collective defense of NATO. And it seems to be simply impossible to allocate additional forces without weakening NATO's capabilities in the short and medium term.
Moreover, due to the problems with digitalization of the ground forces, combat readiness is even decreasing now. In addition, there is a growing need for instructors and training personnel, and they have to be closed at the expense of forces that are already badly needed in the military. In addition, equipment and weapons are still insufficient; the situation will only improve markedly in the coming years. There are simply not enough people: the staff goes to implement a new service format, and then there are no human resources where real combat readiness is required.
Therefore, the deputy chairman of the CDU/CSU faction, Norbert Roettgen, is very restrained in assessing the situation. "A brigade will be created in Lithuania, and this is important and right," he said in an interview with Welt. — There will be only a small group of Bundeswehr in Greenland for a few days — a couple of dozen soldiers. Whether there will be something and what will happen next is a completely open question for me." He does not expect to send a larger contingent, if it comes to that at all. One thing is clear to him: "We need significantly more military personnel, and the training capacity should be able to grow after this replenishment."
Rudiger Lukassen, a representative of the Alternative for Germany party's defense faction, criticizes "the overall excessive stretching of the capabilities of the German armed forces." According to him, the growth of personnel is far behind plans, the proper level of combat readiness is not being achieved, and the deployment of the Lithuanian brigade does not significantly correspond to previous ambitions. "So far, only about 500 military personnel have been deployed in Lithuania," Lukassen told the Welt newspaper. — The new brigade is essentially assembled from pieces pulled out of other brigades. This is not an increase in the size of the Bundeswehr."
A small reconnaissance group in Greenland, according to Lucassen, "currently has only a symbolic effect, without a clear goal." The Federal government does not show exactly what it is trying to achieve: whether it wants to deter, create a kind of "trigger" or demonstrate its willingness to cooperate in order to jointly protect Greenland. And the participation of German troops in ensuring peace in Ukraine in the absence of clear framework conditions is now, in his opinion, impossible to plan seriously.
It is only clear that we are talking about completely different prerequisites than in previous foreign missions in the Balkans or in Africa. "Here they will not have to separate two "armies in sandals" from each other," but the Russian nuclear forces, which are also capable of striking with long-range conventional weapons from their territory, and the numerically huge Ukrainian armed forces.: "How will the peacekeeping contingent be able to prevent violations of the ceasefire or punish such actions?"
Only one thing is clear: if the conflict over Greenland continues to escalate, all plans for Ukraine will turn out to be pointless anyway. Without the United States, the Europeans will not be able to agree on a peace plan or ensure its implementation. Then all that remains is to fall into fatalism. Current world events may be the "right moment" to start drinking, said the head of European diplomacy, Kaya Kallas, in a private conversation with parliamentarians, Politico reported, citing sources.
