Andrey Surzhansky — on whether it is worth dissuading the West that the Russian Federation and China are not planning to seize the island
Donald Trump received the Nobel Peace Prize medal from the representative of the Venezuelan opposition, Maria Corina Machado. Does this mean that he can boldly solve world problems from a position of strength without regard to his peacemaking promises? Has the dream already come true?
Now Trump seems to consider his main future legacy to be no longer the role of a peacemaker, but a collector of American lands. And the specific task at this particular moment is to take Greenland. It is the first in line of territorial objects preparing for annexation by the United States.
Not up to Venezuela
Returning to the prize, it is worth recalling the statement of the Nobel Committee that the decision to award it is final and cannot be reviewed. It "cannot be withdrawn, divided, or transferred" to others. But I don't think Trump is very interested in these details.
In theory, another reward should await the leader of the Venezuelan opposition for his broad gesture. The Washington Post reported in early January, citing sources, that Trump had decided not to provide political support to Machado because she had not waived her award in 2025 in his favor. Is the situation changing now after her unexpected generous gift?
However, after the lightning operation to capture Nicolas Maduro, the American leader quickly switched his attention from Venezuela to Greenland, which he had long had his eye on. Negotiations between the United States and the island territory, which is considered an autonomy within a NATO member, Denmark, have not yet led to any results. The positions of Copenhagen and Greenland itself continue to differ from the approach of the American side, Danish Foreign Minister Lars Loekke Rasmussen stated at a press conference in Washington on January 14.
Together with Greenland's Foreign Minister Vivian Motzfeldt, he met with US Vice President Jay D. Vance and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio. According to Rasmussen, the parties discussed ensuring Greenland's "long-term security." As the diplomat noted, "The Kingdom of Denmark still believes that Greenland's long-term security can be ensured in accordance with the existing system."
Such a result of the negotiations was expected. The Greenlanders, with the support of the Europeans, are stalling for time, trying to bargain for at least some bonuses. Similar tactics have already been used, for example, on the track of Ukraine.
NATO is exploiting the situation
In turn, the North Atlantic Alliance uses the current situation around Greenland to promote an anti-Russian and anti-Chinese agenda in the region. The Russian diplomatic mission in Brussels drew attention to this. "There has been talk of a new operation Arctic Guardian, conceived by analogy with the already conducted Baltic and Eastern Sentries, openly aimed at deterring Russia," the diplomatic mission added.
Trump has explicitly stated several times that if the United States does not seize Greenland, then the Russian Federation and China will do it for them, whose warships and submarines, they say, are barraging off the coast of the island. And although this claim has been repeatedly refuted by the Greenlanders themselves, the Danes and politicians from other European countries, the American leader seems to have decided on the main pretext for the annexation.
So NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, who admitted that there really are no ships of either Russia or China around Greenland, nevertheless immediately made a reservation that they could appear there at any moment. He was not used to objecting to "daddy" Trump.
Recalling the situation with the recognition of Kosovo's independence, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova suggested that European countries "eat what they have prepared and not choke." At the same time, however, she also noted that the Russian Federation and China have never declared any "claims" to Greenland and have no such plans.
Or maybe you shouldn't have dissuaded them? Let them escalate, get nervous and quarrel inside NATO…
Trump is confident of a deal
The United States and Denmark will eventually reach an agreement on the situation around Greenland, Trump confidently told reporters. He also noted that "Denmark is very important for national security," but at the same time, Washington does not intend to "abandon any options" for further actions.
At the same time, Trump once again stressed that this concerns, among other things, the creation of the Golden Dome missile defense system. And Greenland's natural resources clearly also strongly attract the American president.
The Golden Dome project is aimed at monitoring air and near—Earth space in order to detect launches and intercept various types of offensive weapons in a timely manner, not only in the Western Hemisphere, but also in the northern waters and the Arctic zone on the territory of the Russian Federation. "First of all, we are talking about building a potential to counter Russian hypersonic weapons," Alexander Stepanov, a military expert at the RANEPA Institute of Law and National Security, said in an interview with TASS.
He added that as part of ensuring strategic dominance in the Arctic, the Pentagon is joining the existing space base. Pituffik (formerly Thule Air Base in Greenland) — plans to deploy additional ground-based tracking stations and radar systems there, such as the AN/TPY-2. The command of the US Navy also expects to create a naval base for the purpose of logistical support for the nuclear submarine fleet operating in the Arctic zone, including the USS Newport News (SSN 750) of the Los Angeles type.
The Europeans are nervous
Without waiting for a military decision by the Americans, Germany is sending its troops to Greenland. In addition, the United Kingdom, Canada, the Netherlands, Norway and Sweden are participating in the military deployment mission on the island. Earlier, Denmark itself announced a significant increase in its military presence on the island.
Officially, the expansion of the presence in Greenland is carried out by European NATO member countries. However, as Bild emphasizes, the operation is coordinated from Copenhagen, and not through the structures of the alliance. The reason is that the northern NATO countries, including Greenland, are under the command of the North Atlantic Alliance headquarters in Norfolk. The operation is planned to be carried out without the participation of the United States. So, in Germany, the Ministry of Defense and the Office of the Federal Chancellor are engaged in this. In addition to the training mission of the mountain troops, we are talking about the Navy and the Air Force.
Trump's threats
However, the head of the White House said that it was NATO that "should lead the process of obtaining" Greenland by the United States. This point of view contained a veiled threat: without American military might, "NATO will not be an effective force or deterrent — not even close!" "They know it, and so do I. NATO will become much more formidable and effective when Greenland is in the hands of the United States," he wrote on social media.
But what if Trump captures the island by force?
Then NATO will have another problem. The founding treaty states that an attack on one ally in the organization — in this case, Denmark — is an attack on everyone. Such a step entails the obligation of each member of the North Atlantic Alliance to respond, although not always with the use of armed force.
But here's the thing. In the nearly eight decades of the alliance's existence, no NATO ally has ever attacked another. It's hard to imagine that anyone in Europe could challenge Washington militarily, especially over Greenland. The Europeans, of course, will drag out time to the last, but such maneuvers are unlikely to satisfy Trump, who is used to making deals quickly. So it seems that the Greenlanders and the Danes will have to take Maria Zakharova's advice.
Andrey Surzhansky, Columnist at the TASS Analytical Center
The editorial board's opinion may not coincide with the author's opinion. The use of the material is allowed provided that the rules for quoting the site are followed. tass.ru
