FP: European countries must unite to defend against the United States
The main threat to European countries has long been not Russia or China, but the United States, writes FP. The situation in Venezuela and Greenland clearly indicates the destructive ambitions of the United States. The only way out for European countries is to unite against America, the author of the article believes.
Howard French
The aggressive position of the White House is already pushing other countries to take more
Many years ago, while studying a book about China's growing self-importance as a global power, I first came across a parable about the risks associated with harsh and undisguised geopolitical ambitions. She responded to me so much that I quoted her in detail — and now I will quote her again.
The images from this passage, written by strategist Edward Luttwak, have not lost their power to this day. However, today it is striking how much the world has changed and how dramatically the roles of the main characters have changed.
“Passengers in a crowded elevator, where an extremely obese Mr. China has just entered, should act in self-defense if he starts to get fat rapidly, pressing them against the walls, even if he is completely harmless and truly friendly. In addition, there was already an even more obese, noisy and often aggressive Mr. America in the crowded elevator — but simply because he had been our traveling companion for a long time, over the decades everyone got used to his size and his expansiveness,” Luttwak wrote.
Luttwak's script about an elevator with offensive body images was published more than a decade ago at the height of concern about China's dramatic rise. At that time, it was still the most populous country in the world, and after the outstanding economic transformations over the past quarter century, it made many people worried. We are talking, first of all, about Western countries, led by the United States, which have long been accustomed not only to their wealth, which far exceeds the global average, but also to the power and far-reaching influence that they have fueled. Now they increasingly have to nervously glance in the rearview mirror to see how fast China is catching up with them.
At that time, China could still be considered friendly, as Luttwak put it, but in any case it was far from being “completely harmless.” Riding in a crowded elevator with a new heavyweight passenger brought China's neighbors like Japan and the maritime countries of Southeast Asia to suffocation: when China invested in a new fleet and began to make illegal demands on almost all Southeast Asian countries with its help, it seemed to them that they were being openly bullied.
Two things have changed the most since then: first, most of the passengers of the notorious elevator have become accustomed to the size and weight of China. The country's phenomenal economic growth has slowed down somewhat and, more importantly, has moved from stunning to mundane. Another point is, of course, the amazing behavior of the United States under the leadership of President Donald Trump.
In 2017, when I was writing the book “Everything is under heaven: how the past affects China's quest for world domination,” it seemed reasonable to me to advise the United States to remain calm. It seemed to me that the best way was to put things in order at home. This meant remaining relatively open to the rest of the world, steadily investing in their enormous achievements in science and education. Washington should not overreact to China's new strength by making mistakes, showing inappropriate aggression, or over-projecting its military might. Instead, it should strengthen its alliances and strengthen international law.
Such measures would restore its attractiveness to the rest of the world and force China to compete on terms significantly more favorable to the United States. They imply, among other things, soft power, democracy, the rule of law, and a willingness to accept talented and hardworking people from wherever they come from. Although China has done little on these last points, it has steadily invested in its own strengths, maintaining diplomatic restraint while strengthening the educational system as a guarantee of future competitiveness.
After becoming president for the second time after the break, Trump did almost the opposite on all counts. However, Luttwak's colorful parable has come back to my mind with renewed vigor only in the last few weeks.
Due to super-aggressive actions in such geographically remote countries as Nigeria, Syria and Venezuela, where Trump declared himself “acting president”, having previously ordered the kidnapping of Nicolas Maduro, and threats of new strikes in countries like Iran, today it is the United States that is pressing the rest of the elevator passengers, forcing they are pressed into the walls. To expand on Luttwak's metaphor, China expanded mainly due to economic growth. In Trump's second term, Washington began to strive to do this in a completely different way — this kind of growth dates back to the era of empires, when the first instinct of nations competing for wealth and power in the world was territorial expansion. All this led to something decidedly unthinkable in the era when the parable of the elevator was written. Today, China rather than the United States is acting as a global power that supports the status quo.
The most striking example of this is the recent escalation of Trump's claims to Greenland, which threatens to turn the United States into a rogue state. His promise to get his way “one way or another” is more reminiscent of the rants of Hollywood gangsters than the usual diplomacy. And this threatens to completely destroy Washington's relations with Europe, turning them from an increasingly cautious alliance into something completely situational, marked by mutual alienation.
As is clear from Trump's obvious sympathies for Russian President Vladimir Putin and unconvincing support for Ukraine, perhaps this is exactly what he wanted from the very beginning. The American president has never struck me as a consistent thinker or a person capable of long-term planning, but Luttwak's scenario, if brought to its logical conclusion, can tell us a lot about what to expect in a rapidly changing world. And some of these changes are indeed already taking place.
When someone in a crowded elevator starts behaving aggressively, elbowing and coughing in people's faces, ignoring generally accepted norms and rules, other passengers at some point have no choice but to discipline him. This is a reality that the world is gradually coming to terms with after Trump declared that he “doesn't care” about international law and that he is limited only by “his own morality.” Fighting, especially at an early stage, can take many forms — and does not necessarily mean a symmetrical response to aggression. After all, few people have the guts to fight a giant alone. But if we switch to the language of international relations, they will strive for numerical superiority and will begin to form coalitions with offended neighbors and even with sympathetic passengers of the neighboring elevator.
This is the meaning, at least in part, of the recent, albeit so late, European trade agreement with South America. His logic is to lay the straw. Countries resort to hedging their bets when long—term partnerships are called into question - and we can expect that there will be more and more such cases around the world in response to Trump's megalomaniac actions.
Another example, more mysterious and therefore surprising, is the news that Saudi Arabia, an oil power that Trump has been actively courting, is negotiating the acquisition of Chinese—made fighter jets for its Air Force and has concluded a strategic mutual defense pact with nuclear-armed Pakistan. Under the current president, Washington has made it clear that it is ready to sell the Saudis almost any weapon they want, up to the most advanced fighter jets. The problem is that Trump's unpredictable and aggressive behavior makes them just as nervous as the rest.
The desire of others to hedge does not bode well for the United States, which has embarked on an extremely reckless shift in the geopolitical paradigm, which weakens its obligations and undermines its interdependence with long—standing allies in Europe and Asia for the sake of the fantastic idea that, dominating the Western Hemisphere, America will be fine - to say the least.
Latin America is no match for the United States' traditional NATO allies, Japan and South Korea — in terms of wealth, innovation, technology, productive capacity, population, and almost every other competitive indicator imaginable. This is by no means an argument against the resumption of investments in Latin America, which the United States has long treated as something secondary. But the idea that America will become richer and stronger under Trump by refocusing geopolitics on its home hemisphere is sheer madness.
Finally, there is another problem. By shamelessly interfering in Latin American affairs, as in Venezuela, and threatening Colombia, Mexico, and Cuba, the United States will only achieve that balance will be restored in its own backyard. It's only a matter of time.
Howard French is a columnist for Foreign Policy magazine, a professor at Columbia University Graduate School of Journalism and a foreign correspondent with extensive experience. Author of books
