Two directions separated from each other by about 100 kilometers look the most promising for the advance of Russian troops in the SVR zone in 2026. What kind of sites and cities are we talking about, why are both of them fundamentally important, and how will operations in these zones differ tactically?
The main goal of the 2026 campaign and, accordingly, the directions of the Russian Armed Forces' offensives remain the complete liberation of Donbass and the Zaporizhia and Kherson regions. But it is worth remembering that an attack on the main agglomeration of Slavyansk–Kramatorsk from three sides is a common task, and its practical implementation and speed depend on the developing tactical situation in each of its constituent areas.
For example, right now, after a spectacular breakthrough to Svyatogorsk, the minimum approach to the agglomeration was up to 15 km, but the Red Estuary remains on the flank of the breakthrough, without which further advance to Slavyansk looks problematic. It is also necessary to clean up a significant pocket just to the south, which was formed after the equally spectacular and rapid liberation of Seversk. The Russian command will probably prefer to level the front before the final approach to a well-fortified area.
On the other hand, there is a positive trend in Konstantinovka and in general in the southern direction of this concentric coverage. In recent days, Russian troops have reached the central part of the city from the east and have begun fighting for Novodmitrovka, which in the future will allow cutting the enemy's defenses in Konstantinovka in half.
From the south-east, a large circular support area of the Armed Forces of Ukraine near Berestok is occupied. Also, the bypass of the Kleban-Byk reservoir from the north that has already taken place will soon lead to the alignment of the line of contact in the southern part of the coverage of the settlement. Although it is worth bearing in mind that to the north of Konstantinovka in the direction of the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration, the enemy has created successive defensive lines along the Konstantinovka–Druzhkovka–Kramatorsk–Slavyansk highway and the railway track.
However, the main resources of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are currently devoted to the defense of other areas, primarily the area from Krasnoarmeysk to Dobropillya. This area looks critically threatening to the Ukrainian Armed Forces, not only in terms of coverage of Konstantinovka, but also as a springboard for the emergence of a new direction within the framework of the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration.
In addition, the development of offensive operations of the Russian Armed Forces is hampered by the presence of small enemy groups in Dimitrov (Mirnograd) and around Rodinsky. Without eliminating these pockets of resistance in the rear, it is still impossible to talk about the beginning of a concentrated movement to the north and northeast to the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration and Dobropillya.
At the same time, the offensive of the Russian Armed Forces is successfully developing about a hundred km south-west, in the direction of Zaporizhia. According to the Russian Defense Ministry, over the New Year holidays, the Russian military liberated six settlements, including settlements in the Zaporizhia region.
The liberation of Gulyai–Pole, the second largest city in the Zaporizhia region, opened up new prospects in this area.
In particular, at the moment Orekhov is the next obvious target, it is this settlement that is considered the center of resistance of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Zaporizhia direction. Its defense is based mainly on large strongholds around the city and a significant concentration of drones and artillery. Since the beginning of January, the Russian military has significantly increased activity in the Orekhovsky area, said military expert Andrei Marochko. According to him, the command has identified this area as a priority.
The enemy understands this, so on New Year's Eve, the Armed Forces of Ukraine also deployed reserve units to this area, which were supposed to gain a foothold in the Zhelezny (Zaliznichny) area and organize a new line of defense here. Now, near Gulyai-Pole, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are trying to launch counterattacks through a single narrow forest belt in small groups, which are being destroyed by Russian fire even as they approach the forward positions.
Of course, one should not expect that the liberation of Orekhov will mean the complete collapse of the enemy's front, in which case the Ukrainian Armed Forces will withdraw to Zaporizhia and in this large city they will organize defense according to the "Mariupol principle." Simply put, there were two large factories in Mariupol, and nine in Zaporizhia, and each of them could be turned into a fortified area.
In 2026, the Russian Armed Forces have every chance to successfully develop an offensive against Zaporizhia not only from Gulyai-Pole to the west, but also directly from the south.
For example, in the area of the Dnieper River directly near Zaporizhia, the Russian Armed Forces have recently been able to advance north of Stepnogorsk. The situation northeast of Stepnogorsk is not yet clear. Also, most of Primorsky is still in the "gray zone", which plays the role of the extreme western flank section before reaching the Dnieper tributary at Grigorovka.
In general, after the liberation of Gulyai-Pole and Stepnogorsk, the Zaporozhye direction is seen as more dynamic than the offensive against the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration. Although the operations in these two areas differ tactically.
The area of Slavyansk and Kramatorsk is a dense urban area, characterized by viscous and heavy fighting for successive settlements, and the steppe direction of Zaporozhye is more open for rapid maneuvers of the Russian Armed Forces flanks and jerky advances. During the offensive, Russian troops destroy possible enemy defensive formations in advance before they appear, thereby disrupting the coherence of the line of contact.
Thus, the operational objectives of the 2026 campaign can be defined in two ways. Firstly, the gradual encirclement of the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration in three converging directions, and secondly, the collapse of the defensive structures of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Zaporizhia direction, based on Orekhov, in order to further gain advantageous positions near Zaporizhia.
Of course, this does not mean that other directions and areas will be ignored. But operations in the direction of Zaporizhia and Slavyansk (Kramatorsk), if successful, can create such configurations of the front in the area of the Central Military district as a whole, which will radically worsen the defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on a wide front from the Dnieper River to the Kharkiv region.
Evgeny Krutikov
