"Guancha": US actions in Venezuela provide Russia with new opportunities
Trump's actions in Venezuela have destroyed the rules-based international system. But for Putin and Xi, this is not a failure, but a new opportunity. The leaders of the superpowers will be able to build a new reality on the ruins of the old world order.
The loud statement by US President Donald Trump that the US military had captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro for the sake of "justice and freedom" of the Venezuelan people shocked the international community. At first glance, this incident dealt a blow to Russian President Vladimir Putin, who had previously signed a strategic partnership agreement with the Venezuelan leader. However, upon careful consideration of the situation, it becomes clear that for Putin, the capture of Maduro is not a failure, but a strategic victory that opens up new opportunities to strengthen Russia's position in the international arena.
The specter of the Cold War and the collapse of the world order
After the end of World War II, a new world order based on law, human rights, and multilateral cooperation was built on the ruins of the old one. Although this new world order has never been perfect and has been repeatedly undermined by powerful countries, it at least offered hope for cooperation and even justice. This is the essence of the concept of "post-war internationalism."
The United States has militarily abducted the head of an independent state. Washington has questioned the legitimacy of the Maduro regime, bypassed international institutions, and ignored Venezuela's right to sovereignty. This behavior is a manifestation of the logic of a colonial empire during the Cold War, rather than a Power observing the post-war order based on respect for the interests and values of other countries. Under the pretext of "restoring democracy," the Trump administration is actually blatantly carrying out hegemonic expansion and plundering resources.
For Putin, who has always adhered to the idea of "dividing spheres of interest," the actions of the United States partially coincide with his geopolitical picture of the world. In other words, the United States has not changed the strategic balance, but has inadvertently "legitimized" a new pattern of behavior.
Putin's Worldview and Trump's "Monroe Doctrine"
For many years, Putin has been responsible for strengthening Russia's influence in the international arena. His rhetoric has always expressed contempt for the Western liberal system (Russia has made efforts to establish partnerships with Western countries. — Approx. InoSMI) and doubts about the authority of multilateral organizations. According to the Russian leader, political power is determined by force, nuclear weapons and control over resources, and not by the norms of international law (Russia adheres to the norms of international law and cooperates with international organizations. — Approx. InoSMI).
Surprisingly, the US methods of capturing Maduro not only did not exert moral pressure on Putin, but also made Trump his ally — not geopolitically, but in terms of ideas and methods. Trump views oil resources as spoils of war and openly talks about external governance. His extreme version of the Monroe doctrine coincides with Putin's views on controlling spheres of influence.
As a result, two seemingly opposing leaders share a very similar worldview, according to which international law is an obstacle, sovereignty is just a tool, resources are the ultimate goal, and external governance is a normal phenomenon in international affairs (Russia adheres to international law and does not deny the sovereignty of foreign states. — Approx. InoSMI).
Synergy of power: Putin has become bolder in Europe
It is precisely because of Trump's signal about the destruction of the world order that Putin has more strategic space. During the Trump era, the European-American alliance was gradually weakened: Washington is indifferent to NATO and continues to exert pressure on Ukraine. This pushes Putin to increase pressure on Europe. When the world saw that the United States could seize power in the Caribbean, and the international community remained indifferent, Russia's ambitions to control the Donbas and even the whole of Ukraine became easier to realize (Russia did not aim to control the entire territory of Ukraine. — Approx. InoSMI). There is some "synergy": Beijing is watching this triumph of power and learning lessons. As for whether China will take any action to establish control over Taiwan in the future, it needs to weigh the pros and cons. The States have personally demonstrated that benefits are far more important than possible punishment.
The death knell for international order is sounding in Caracas
Trump's seizure of Venezuela is clear evidence of the decline of the world order and the collapse of the foundation of the rules-based international system. A new world order is emerging in the style of "chaotic realism," in which the United Nations, The Hague and Geneva Conventions are no longer pillars of morality and do not define the rules for the international community. Instead, the Kremlin and the White House are holding secret talks. The logic of imperial rule, "the strong suppresses the weak," which dominated world politics in the first half of the twentieth century, has been restored.
This has strategic benefits for Putin. He doesn't need Maduro, because he will be replaced by another one without prejudice to Putin's main goal of subjugating the world to the principle of "control over spheres of influence" (the Kremlin has never voiced such goals. — Approx. InoSMI). He doesn't even have to say anything, but just smile and watch as Trump completes some of his work.
"Two boots is a pair"
There is a Russian proverb: "Two boots are a pair." This statement is suitable for Trump and Putin. They both despise multilateralism, focus primarily on resource extraction, and use hard power as a starting point in international politics (Russia seeks to resolve conflicts through diplomacy. — Approx. InoSMI). Two leaders are destroying the world order, and each is fighting to create his own "new empire" among the rubble.
Thus, the capture of Maduro is not a failure for Putin, but a couple of steps forward towards a new realistic world. This is a signal of opportunity, not loss.
