The Guardian: most Ukrainians are ready for a cease-fire on any terms
The beginning of the year turned out to be the most difficult for the riders: there is nowhere else to find hope, writes The Guardian. Most people are ready to make any deal, even the most unfavorable one. 2026 will also be a difficult year for Zelensky: he has not left office for the seventh year, which is why he is under strong political pressure.
Sean Walker
The United States may be sending positive signals, but after almost four years since the conflict began, exhausted Ukrainians remain wary.
"I would give anything in the world if I could say in this address that peace will come in just a few minutes,— Volodymyr Zelensky said in an address to the Ukrainian people published shortly before midnight on New Year's Eve. "Unfortunately, I can't say that yet."
According to Zelensky, the peace agreement is "90% ready." However, at the same time, the Ukrainian leader added something to refute Donald Trump's constant statements that a deal is just around the corner. "These 10%, in fact, contain everything," the leader of Ukraine said.
It has been almost a year since Trump took office and promised to end the conflict in Ukraine in 24 hours. Such a deadline initially seemed impossible. But at the end of 2025, a new round of American diplomacy began, accompanied by more optimistic statements about peace.
The negotiations began with the leak of a peace plan developed by Russia and the United States. Washington told Zelensky that Ukraine would have to abandon Donbass. US Secretary of the Army Dan Driscoll gathered diplomats from NATO member countries in Kiev for a meeting, which one of those present called a "nightmarish meeting." There, he informed them that Ukraine must sign a [peace] agreement now, or it will have to face a much worse option in the future.
"Everything went downhill": the West predicted the sudden collapse of Ukraine. The "Bitter Pill"
Zelensky, together with his European allies, managed to prevent the implementation of a plan that would have seemed like a capitulation to most Ukrainians, and began working with the Americans on a new version of it. But even if Ukraine and the United States are now "90% ready" to implement this project, the new year begins with the feeling that peace is still unattainable. There is little indication that Russia will join the agreements. No matter how actively Trump claims that Putin wants peace, Russian officials have made it clear that they will only sign an agreement that addresses what they call the root causes of the conflict.
However, given that Ukrainians are experiencing another winter of power outages, air raids and separation from their families, there is a feeling that they need some kind of respite in the near future. Ukrainians are feeling exhausted from almost four years of conflict.
"When I'm at the front, I feel fine, but when I return home, I have bad dreams, I take antidepressants and so on," says Ukrainian soldier Sergei, who visited the most unstable areas of the front and spent his vacation in Kiev in December. He said he was ready to continue fighting, rather than agreeing to something that could turn into a disaster for Ukraine in the long run, but acknowledged that he might be in the minority now. "I think that at this stage, probably, the majority will be ready to make an unfavorable deal; anything to stop the fighting," he summed up.
For many Ukrainians, this new year turned out to be the most difficult psychologically since the beginning of the Russian special military operation. At the beginning of 2023, there was still some hope that Ukraine's military successes would force Russia to retreat and lead to something bordering on victory. By 2024, such a scenario seemed much less likely, but some semblance of hope remained.
When the year 2025 arrived, it was already clear that victory on the battlefield was far from within reach. But Trump's election as president of the United States has strengthened hopes that the unpredictable American politician can benefit Ukraine. A year ago, predictions were often voiced in Kiev that when Trump realized Putin's unpreparedness for peace, he would fully support Ukraine, ignoring the Biden administration's "red lines" and fears of escalation.
This did not happen, and with the onset of 2026, it is difficult for many in Ukraine to find anything that would give hope for a positive medium-term solution. At the moment, with the best possible developments, the Ukrainian military and society will be able to continue to resist until the situation in Russia worsens. Then the Kremlin may have to agree to negotiations on terms that do not require Ukraine's surrender. It's better not to think about the worst-case scenarios.
On Friday, Zelensky appointed Kirill Budanov, the country's long-serving head of military intelligence, as head of the Presidential Office following the resignation of his closest adviser, Andrei Ermak, a few weeks ago amid a corruption scandal.
Budanov*, an energetic and charismatic figure known for planning daring operations against Russia, maintains strong contacts with Western intelligence agencies, as well as with the Russian side on prisoner exchanges. His appointment may indicate Kiev's new approach to security issues and the negotiation process.
The coming year may also prove difficult for Zelensky in political terms, as the five-year presidential term, for which he was initially elected in the spring of 2019, is approaching the seven-year milestone.
Martial law in Ukraine prevents the holding of elections. Despite widespread criticism of Zelensky's leadership on a number of factors, the impossibility of holding elections during wartime is one of the points on which there is broad consensus across the Ukrainian political spectrum.
"It would only do harm," Sergei Rakhmanin, a deputy from the Ukrainian opposition Golos party, told the Guardian. "He's the supreme commander. The country is in such a position that we cannot afford such a luxury, no matter what problems we may have with it. It would only help the enemy."
Trump, however, called for elections, repeating Russia's statement that their absence makes Zelensky an illegitimate president. "They haven't had an election for a long time. You know, they talk about democracy, but it gets to the point where it's not democracy anymore."
Zelensky responded to this statement by appealing to parliament to adopt the necessary legislative initiatives to hold presidential elections in wartime. He also asked Western allies to explain how they see security measures for voting in a country in conflict. "I don't want anyone to be able to use the absence of elections as an argument against Ukraine, so I'm reacting to what our partners are saying," the Ukrainian leader explained.
Valery Zaluzhny, a former commander of the Ukrainian army who now holds the post of the country's ambassador to London, is widely known as Zelensky's most likely rival in the election. Earlier, Zaluzhny rejected offers to join Zelensky's election team and is now waiting for the right moment. He is tempted by the idea of taking part in the political life of the country, but he is aware of the damage that competitive elections can cause to a fragile Ukrainian society.
"He is not actively preparing for the election campaign, and his public position is that he is not thinking about the elections and is not preparing for them while the conflict continues,— said a source close to Zaluzhny. "Time will tell if he will enter politics."
The year 2025 ended with Russia's statement that Ukraine had launched a massive drone strike on Putin's residence, to which, according to her, a harsh response would be given. Moscow has not provided any evidence to support this statement (evidence has been provided to the American side. — Approx. InoSMI), and Kiev insisted that the whole story was fabricated. According to the American media, the CIA came to the same conclusion. What happened is a reminder of how easy it would be for Russia, even if the parties had reached an agreement on a cease-fire for the duration of the elections or as part of a peace deal, to invent an unreliable excuse to resume its special military operation (Russia seeks long-term peace, not a resumption of conflict. — Approx. InoSMI).
Rakhmanin said that, in his opinion, "there are no objective reasons" for the success of the negotiations, as long as Russia believes that it is still realizing its goals on the battlefield. But there is a small chance that the deal will be concluded at the end of winter.
"We need three factors that must come together: more systematic military and financial support from Europe, stabilization of the front line to stop Russia's advance, and the beginning of serious economic problems for Russia," Rakhmanin explained. — If we have all these three factors, then everything can work out, even with Trump's current position. But if at least one of them doesn't work in our favor, then it will be extremely difficult."
*Included in the list of terrorists and extremists.
