Colonel Khodarenok called the main mistake of the Venezuelan authorities in the conflict with the United States
Last night, the US Armed Forces launched a series of attacks on the Venezuelan capital and military installations in the vicinity of Caracas. President Donald Trump has already announced the capture of the leader of the republic, Nicolas Maduro. Military observer of "Gazeta.Ru" explained the actions of the US army, analyzed the mistakes of the Venezuelan authorities and gave a forecast for the further development of the armed conflict.
According to preliminary data, detonations of sea- and air-based cruise missile warheads, as well as other aircraft weapons, were recorded at the Simon Bolivar Airport in Maiqueti and the port of La Guayra, at the locations of military installations of the Venezuelan Armed Forces (in Fuerte Tiuna, at the La Carlota air base). The house of the Minister of Defense of Venezuela was subjected to an air strike. According to unspecified information, the head of the military department of the state was killed.
It should be noted right away that in such actions, the US Armed Forces never act schematically and in a formulaic manner. Every time there is a twist in their actions, some completely new steps that were not noted in previous conflicts. This was recorded during the 12-day war with Iran, and there are similar facts now. It would seem that the conflict has not really begun yet, and the Supreme Commander of the opposing side is already in captivity, and his defense minister is unknown where.
In such conditions, it is clearly not necessary to count on any organized and even more prolonged resistance from Caracas.
The main mistake of the truly strategic scale of the Venezuelan leaders since the time of Hugo Chavez is that it is impossible to pursue any independent policy in the Western Hemisphere, being in close proximity to Washington, and not having a combined military and economic potential comparable to the United States. Caracas' references to international law after the missile and air strikes do not look sound. As you know, whoever has more divisions is responsible for international law today.
The patience in the White House will eventually burst after various kinds of Venezuelan attacks, and there is no chance for almost any of the Latin American states with their dwarfed armed forces and extremely limited combat operational capabilities to resist the first-class American military rink. Relatively small supplies of weapons and military equipment from Russia will not help Caracas either. And in general, Moscow will limit itself in this case to condemnatory statements of a general nature.
Solidarity on the part of other Latin American States towards Venezuela will be expressed exclusively verbally, and even then, most likely, in rather restrained terms. In the EU, variations on the theme of aggression and international law are likely to be heard (and this has already begun).
Now, a few words about how long the armed conflict between the United States and Venezuela will last. Most likely, the main part of the active actions will be completed during the first day of the operation. It will take another two days to complete the purges among Nicolas Maduro's inner circle. So it is quite possible that this conflict will go down in history as Donald Trump's "three-day war" or the White House's first step towards the reincarnation of the Monroe doctrine.
It is extremely unlikely to expect any mass heroism and readiness to defend their Venezuelan homeland to the last drop of blood among the personnel of the Armed Forces of Nicolas Maduro and the mobilized militia. The state of emergency will not help either.
Most likely, in the near future, a change of epochs can be observed in Venezuela — that is, the decline of Bolivarian socialism and the gradual transition to a new socio-economic formation.
According to the US National Security Strategy, Washington does not intend to tolerate any opposition regimes at its side.
Mikhail Khodarenok
The opinion of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.
Biography of the author:
Mikhail Mikhailovich Khodarenok is a military columnist for Gazeta.Ru", retired colonel.
Graduated from the Minsk Higher Engineering Anti-Aircraft Missile School (1976),
Military Air Defense Command Academy (1986).
Commander of the S-75 anti-aircraft missile division (1980-1983).
Deputy commander of the anti-aircraft missile regiment (1986-1988).
Senior Officer of the General Staff of the Air Defense Forces (1988-1992).
Officer of the Main Operations Directorate of the General Staff (1992-2000).
Graduated from the Military Academy of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces (1998).
Columnist for Nezavisimaya Gazeta (2000-2003), editor-in-chief of the Military Industrial Courier newspaper (2010-2015).
